Good evening Karma nation! Last week was a break even week with the optimizer. We had a handful of teams surpassing their team totals, providing higher player variance. Both of our overweight players found the end zone, but the price uptick took away some of the value we needed. The team stack was decent for cash plays but for a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) the Bears stack was the way to go. The lesson we learned from Week 14 is we cannot forget about player’s values.
Week 15 has eleven games on the slate. Three of these games have game totals over 50. I am zoning in on a running back who gets his best friend back, a tight end that is basically a wide receiver, and a team stack that will provide necessary value. We have reviewed, we have reflected, so lets get to optimizing!
OVERWEIGHT: (Alvin Kamara) ($7,400 DK)
Great news came out today that Drew Brees will be starting. This helps Kamara immensely. In the four weeks without Brees Kamara put up 10.5, 6.2, 17.7, and 22.4 fantasy points. In the weeks with Brees Kamara averages 27.7 fantasy points. Michael Thomas is also out which will provide more opportunity for Kamara. DraftKings did not know that status of Brees when they set the prices and set Kamara’s price too low.
While starting, Taysom Hill absorbed opportunities Kamara could have had in the red zone. Hill’s rushing market share (MS) will now have to be reallocated back to Kamara. The closer the Saints are to the end zone the more they rely on Kamara. He has 36% of the teams rushing attempts within the 20-yard line, 43% within the 10-yard line, and 48% within the 5-yard line. Kamara is averaging 7.4 targets/game with 5.9 receptions/game. Kamara is seeing 25% of team targets inside the red zone. New Orleans is 6th in touchdowns/drive scoring touchdowns on 31.2% of their drives.
New Orleans is 7th in the league for offensive adjusted line yards (ALY) with 4.7. Kansas City is 22nd in league for defensive ALY with 4.5. The Saints average 137.3 rushing yards/game and Chiefs defense is allowing the 26th most 128.4 rushing yards/game.
Things are starting to add up and are tempting me to hit that lock button on Kamara. The optimizer projects him as the 6th best RB this weekend. I will be manually adjusting that (as shown below) as I do not believe it accounted for the recent news of Brees in and Thomas out. Personally I see Kamara as a top three back this week and would not be one bit surprised if he broke the slate.
OVERWEIGHT: (Travis Kelce) ($8,000 DK)
Kelce is doing something extremely special this year and I am appreciative to witness this greatness. Kelce is currently leading the league (this includes WR) in receiving yards totaling 1,250. He is well above pace to surpass most receiving yards in a season for tight ends which is 1,377 (Kittle). He is second in the league for receiving yards/game with 96.2 just behind Davante Adams. Lastly, he is fifth in the league for total receptions with 90. It is incredible to know Kelce is on the verge of being the first tight end ever to lead the league in receiving yards.
The Saints defense is good, but sometimes when an exceptional offense plays against a great defense, I rely on the offense to typically prevail. I do not want to discredit the Saints defense but in the past five weeks they were playing teams with a passing DVOA rankings above 20. The Chiefs passing DVOA is the best in the league. The Chiefs also lead the league in offensive efficiency.
With wide receivers included, Kelce projects as the 4th best receiver projecting 20.7 fantasy points. This game total is the highest on the slate at 52. I personally think this is the game of the week, and that 52 will easily get surpassed.
Other candidates: (T.Y. Hilton), (Derrick Henry), (DeAndre Hopkins)
TEAM STACK of the week: (Rivers- $5,900 DK), (Hilton- $5,500 DK)
First, this stack is purely for the value. It totals $11,400 which is going to allow you to optimize in other positions (i.e. getting your Derrick Henry and Travis Kelce).
The Colts have a team total of 30. Points are going to have to come from somewhere. They have surpassed this total seven times this season. The Colts average fourth most points per game, 28.6. They put up 44 points last week which is the most points they have put up this season.
The Houston defense is horrendous. They are 30th in total DVOA (26th in passing and 29th in rushing). Houston’s passing defense is allowing 254.3 passing yards/game which is 24th in the league. They are allowing 3rd most passing touchdowns to wide receivers at 18. The Texans also allow the league’s most yards after catch (YAC) totaling 1,916 yards this season.
When these two teams faced in Week 13 Rivers threw 285 yards and two touchdowns, one which was to Hilton. Hilton also had a great game having 8 receptions, 110 yards, and a touchdown (8/110/1). Hilton has averaged 23.9 fantasy points in his last three weeks and all four of his touchdowns have came within those three weeks.
There is a strong correlation between Rivers and Hilton, .41. I know it does not seem the most appetizing but the value is there, the matchup is there, and the team total is there. I will not make another value mistake this week.
Other candidates: (KC passing stack), (ARI stack), (TEN stack), (LAR passing stack)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (Russell Wilson $7,300 DK)
It never feels good fading Russell Wilson, but with him being the third most expensive QB on the slate and the difficult matchup he has I feel better spending down at QB, if I’m not taking Mahomes.
In the last four weeks Washington has allowed an average of 14.25 points per game. They are second in defensive passing DVOA and third in defensive efficiency. Seattle has not provided Wilson much protection ranking 30th in offensive adjusted sack rate. Washington ranks fourth in defensive adjusted sack rate and actual sacks this season with 40.
I want to be clear in saying that this does not mean Wilson cannot have a great game. After all, it is Russell Wilson, but the way Washington has been playing lately and the price Wilson is at I will look elsewhere.
Other candidates: (Amari Cooper), (Jets)
Final Thoughts
Regarding strategy it is common and generally positively correlated to play one of your running back’s defenses. The scenario looks like one team getting up 10+ points and starting to run the clock out utilizing the running back more. Meanwhile, the opposing team needs to start throwing more creating more opportunities for your defense to get more sacks and turnovers.
Week 15 has a couple stand out plays, but without getting some type of value it will be difficult to get the optimal lineup. Make sure you have value in your lineups.
I will stay true with the best tight end on the slate, Travis Kelce. Next, we will find value in this Colt’s team stack and anticipate them scoring more than 30 points. Lastly, I will leave a hot take and say Kamara is the slate breaker and has the most fantasy points this week. Remember do not sleep on the “other candidates”.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week. If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
