Stats, Stacks, and Simulations
Welcome to the 3rd iteration of the Stats, Stacks, and Simulations rundown for the Week 14 NFL Main Slate! I will continue to work on, improve, and take any and all feedback moving forward on this weekly piece. Think of this as a “data dump” of sorts with different visuals of what I view each week in analyzing the slate.
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LINKS
DK Main Slate – Simulations and Optimal %
Week 14 Position by Position Breakdown
Sam’s Week 14 Conviction Column
PrizePicks vs. Karma Projections (NEW!)
Breakdown:
→ “Top Team Matchups” – Team vs. Team and how they compare in terms of pace of play, EPA, DVOA, and DvP as well as player by player projections and projected stack points/ceiling/cost/value!
→“Top DK/Top FD Stacks” – Previously found in my weekly conviction article; a different visual for game stacks and potential bring back options for top teams
→“Top Projected Players – Points (DK and FD)” – Top projected players on both DK and FD along with my projected ceiling projections (focus on ceiling for GPP lineups)
→“Top pOWN% vs. Optimal Lineup%” – Currently DK only (FD coming soon); looks at the highest projected ownership for players, by position, and compares against my simulations for each play to end up in the “optimal” lineup
→“Slate Simulations” – Also currently DK only; a snapshot of my simulations for all players on the main slate and their likelihood to hit 3x/4x/5x/6x value (value based on price; for example, if a player is 5700, 3x value = 17.1 fantasy points, 5x value = 28.5 fantasy points) as well as their likelihood to finish as the Top/Top 3/Top 5 scorer at their position (this is based on raw points and does not consider salary)
DVOA Stats per FootballOutsiders.com
Sec. per Play (Sit. Neutral) per FootballOutsiders.com
Thanks to EstablishTheRun.com for “PROE” info
Top Team Matchups
PROE = “Pass Rate over Expectation” i.e. how often a team passed compared to how often they were expected to pass
Context: It’s surprising to me to see outside of Fournette/Godwin that the Bucs are going largely under-owned… Yes, the Bills defense is one of, if not the best, in the league but we’ve also seen them get beat down by much worse teams than the Bucs and a massive part of their secondary, Tre’ White (one of the only legit shutdown CBs in the league), is on IR and out for the season and should give the likes of Evans/WR3 (Perriman? Tyler Johnson?) favorable matchups while Godwin mans the slot. Then we have Gronk who is putting up insane efficiency this season and with the 6k price tag should go low owned. I think a viable and sneaky(ish) way to stack is what I’ve done the last few weeks in stacking Brady with Fournette and another pass catcher and hope that Lenny keeps up this pace of targets and usage. On the Bills side, obviously Stefon Diggs is a stud, Josh Allen should be able to bounce back, and maybe we get the shootout. The piece I’m most interested in from the Bills is Dawson Knox. The Bucs weakest part of their defense is covering TEs, as they’ve allowed the 3rd most targets this season to the position. Add in Knox having a terrible MNF game a few days ago and he should be easily sub 5% and sees the 2nd most targets on the team behind Diggs.
Context: The two highest players in terms of pOWN% in this game are… Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow? I like Jacobs a lot this week and I wrote him up in my conviction column with the KC run D being bad and Jacobs’ usage both recently and with Richard questionable/Kenyan Drake out, he could be in line for 20+ touches. Renfrow is a low aDOT guy that I rarely ever play as he needs to really rack up near double digit catches for near 100 to pay off what is now a 6200 price tag. On the Chiefs side, yes, they’ve looked not quite what they have in year’s past; however, Mahomes and his 2 elite pass catchers in TyScum and Kelce have shredded the Raiders in their last couple meetings. Hill is expensive but probably carries the highest raw ceiling of any non-QB on the slate. Kelce has maybe “taken a step back” but the Raiders are 2nd to last in DvP vs. TEs and Kelce is by far the best they’ll face all year. As I have the last several weeks, my Mahomes stack will probably consist of Hill/Pringle as putting in Kelce really inhibits the rest of your LU but also think it’s viable to play Kelce and someone like Pringle or Hardman (risky with his snap count way down) and maybe a bring back with Moreau if Waller remains out or Josh Jacobs.
Context: Phew, the Cowboys need to pick it up to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC East and they’re going nearly unowned against the worst Pass D in the NFL. I love stacking the Cowboys side in any which way, Dak/Lamb/Cooper, Dak/Lamb/Gallup, Dak/Lamb/Schultz even and if trying to get contrarian, playing some Zeke. Yes, Zeke has looked unreal slow/fat/useless/etc, etc. but if Pollard misses, he’s going to absorb all the receiving work. On the WFT side, I think Heinicke is a fine-ish play but I probably won’t get there myself. I love myself some Gibson, but 1) if he’s going to be 20-25% owned I may pivot and 2) if McKissic is indeed back, I’ll dial my exposure to Gibson way back. Terry is always a candidate for a 30+ explosion but he’s expensive and I may rather play other WRs in the same range.
Top DK Game Stacks
Top FD Game Stacks
Top Projected Players – Points (DK and FD)
Top pOWN% vs. Optimal Lineup% – Currently DraftKings only! FanDuel coming soon!
Context: Calculating optimal lineup % should never be the only metric you look at but it interesting to use it to identify possible leverage and who may be going “over owned”
-Taysom Hill chalk with a hand injury of some sort with zero adequate WRs/TEs makes me want to get 0% exposure if we’re being honest… while I don’t mind Cam in cash but would prefer to target the likes of Herbert/Dak/Mahoomes if I can pay up
-RB just feels gross this week as some mega chalk guys are also candidates to just torch the field (as many have done in the past); Akeler should continue to get steam with the COVID issues for the Chargers, Gibson is coming off a huge game, Saquon has gotten serious usage in the passing game and the Giants are basically rostering a Pop-Warner team, and Javonte Williams showed what seemingly everyone in the world aside from his coach knew last week on TNF… he’s so much better than dusty Melvin Gordon and mainly expect it to be his backfield moving forward… I’m hesitant to play him outside of cash because the Broncos are idiots
-The pOWN% for top WR stars like Metcalf/Godwin/TyScum, etc. is pretty amazing as Palmer and/or Guyton should be insanely owned in cash, and I get it, but I’ll be way underweight the field in GPPs at that kind of ownership; I don’t like a Seahawks team stack at all with Pete Carroll a full blown dummy and their place of play SO SLOW, but a blow up game for either Lockett or Metcalf certainly feels imminent… WR pOWN% that REALLY sticks out to me are Lamb/Evans/Hollywood Brown/Amari/Sanders/Beasley all projecting for lower ownership than…… Jarvis Landry!
-I play Jared Cook a lot but playing Cook as the chalky punt TE? NOOOOOOOOOO thanks, while Hooper I get in cash games if Njoku/Bryant both miss… going back to Kittle after a monster game should be low owned since people seem to think receivers can’t put up 2 good games in a row, but my favorites, whom are all coming in low owned, are Gronk/Knox/Andrews/Fant, who all clock in under 10 pOWN% as of this writing (Friday afternoon)
Top pOWN% FanDuel
Slate Simulations (Quick View; see Google Sheet for all players!) – Currently DraftKings only
