Good evening Karma nation! Last week was a rough week for the optimizer. I fell on my Derrick Henry sword hard. Unfortunately, that led right into the Jacksonville/Minnesota stack falling quickly behind. The Cleveland/Tennessee stack is a great example of how a game script can paralyze a player’s upside. Once Cleveland went up 14+, it forced Tennessee’s hand to start airing it out, limiting Henry’s ceiling. Oh well, it is part of the game. Lastly, David Montgomery trolled me and outshined Allen Robinson. I guess anyone really can run on the Lions defense.
Week 14 has five games with team totals over 28. I am looking at two elite wide receivers who are setup for great matchups, and a team stack that has been consistently hot. Lets redeem ourselves and get to optimizing!
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OVERWEIGHT: (Davante Adams) ($9,300 DK)
I absolutely love watching Adams play! His route running is flawless and timing with Rodgers is impeccable.
Adams currently leads the league in receptions/game at 8.4 and is tied for first with Tyreek Hill for total receiving touchdowns at 13. He absorbs an astounding 33% target market share (MS). Adams has scored at least one touchdown in his last seven games. When it comes to the red zone Adams gets 44.4% of targets. 29 targets alone have been within the 10-yard line. This tells me that the Packers are more prone to throw a touchdown than run one. The Packers are currently 2nd for percent of touchdowns that were passing, 78.2%.
The Lions defense is allowing opposing WR fourth most receiving yards and allowing tenth most fantasy points to WR. Detroit also has the fourth worst pass DVOA. It appears Detroit will also still be without their starting cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant.
Adams touchdown equity is so high it is difficult to think how any other WR has a floor that comes close. Packers have the highest team total on the slate with 32. That’s over four touchdowns and I expect at least one from Adams and can still even see two. He was needed last week in your lineups and I think it will be a similar situation this week.
OVERWEIGHT: (Keenan Allen) ($7,700 DK)
Even though Allen has had a quiet last couple of weeks he is still averaging 11.3 targets/game. He is averaging 7.5 receptions and 76.9 receiving yards per game. Allen still dominates his team target market share with 28.5%.
When I dug further into Allen’s top fantasy production games, I noticed that they were all against weak secondaries. Specifically, teams that allow a high QB completion %. The Falcons pass defense ranks 27th in QB completion %. Atlanta severely struggles against WR 1. Look at what Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, and Justin Jefferson put up against them. The Falcons are allowing second most total receiving yards and second most fantasy points/game to opposing WR.
Karma’s average projections have Allen at 17.55. I understand it is just the average percentile, but I am checking more at 75% percentile because I see him being peppered with targets this week. Let me remind you both these teams are top 5 in league for pace of play. Pace of play = more opportunities. Allen is getting 11.3 targets/game and now he is in a fast-paced game you will not want to miss out on this.
Other candidates: (Derrick Henry), (Travis Kelce), (Calvin Ridley)
TEAM STACK of the week: (Rodgers- $7,500 DK), (Jones- $7,600 DK), (Adams- $9,300 DK)
This is the highest game total on the slate at 55. The Packers team total is at 32. An alternation to this would be removing Aaron Jones and replacing it with a Detroit pass catcher.
We addressed the reasoning for Adams above so I will focus on Jones and Rodgers.
I said in the intro that “anyone really can run on the Lions defense” and I stand by it. The Lions have given up the most rushing touchdowns this season, 20. Jones averages 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) and Detroit allows 4.5 yards/attempt with 133.9 rushing yards/game. Detroit’s defensive adjusted line yards (ALY) is 27th with 4.76. The Packers offensive ALY is 8th with 4.62. Detroit has the worst defensive efficiency in the league which bodes well for the Packers considering they have 3rd best offensive efficiency. The Packers are also 2nd in league for touchdowns/red zone.
Rodgers seems to enjoy playing the Lions. Throughout his career he has averaged 2 touchdowns/game with 255.8 passing yards/game and a QB rating of 104.8. I will get heat for this, but Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case for MVP this year. This season Rodgers has five games with 4 touchdowns! Every single game but one he has thrown 2+ touchdowns.
Usually QB and RB do not correlate well. However, that is not the case with Rodgers and Jones. We see a positive correlation of .10. This is because Jones still sees 4.8 targets/game. I can see Jones either breaking a big run, and the Lions are ninth worse for runs of 10+ yards, or getting a check down and scoring. Either way you are going to want to have some Packers in your lineups this week.
Other candidates: (KC stack), (LAC stack), (TEN stack)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (Philadelphia Eagles)
The New Orleans saints are getting better defensively each week. They have allowed 20.1 points per game. This is skewed because their first five games of the season they allowed 23+ points each week. If we look at the Saints last five weeks they have allowed only 8.8 points per game!
Jalen Hurts will attempt to bring a spark to this team. Unfortunately for Hurts he will have no protection. The eagles offensive adjusted sack rate is the worst in the league at 10.1% allowing 53 sacks this season. Guess who has the leagues best defensive adjusted sack rate? Yes you guessed it New Orleans at 9.5%.
I truly do not know how the Eagles will score any points this week.
Other candidates: (Derek Carr), (Brandin Cooks)
Final Thoughts
Week 14 reminds me a little of last week’s slate which I am excited about because it gives me a chance at redemption.
I have had some questions on the TE position, so I want to explain my thought process on it. We saw last week you needed Waller to win. The TE position has so much variance. The elite TE are priced like WR for a reason because they see the production and have the touchdown equity do not be afraid to take them. However, if salary is an issue, I look at the lower end TEs like this. Who sees targets? Your Jordan Reeds or Logan Thomas’ are not your sexy plays but if they see 5-7 targets you are just hoping one of them is in the end zone. Also, and where I believe leverage is, look at team totals and target the low priced TE with a higher team total. This tells you points will be scored and gives your low end TE more of a chance to be part of the touchdown equity that week. Perfect example last week was Robert Tonyan. Priced at $3700 and Rodgers threw him a touchdown.
I see the highest upside with Allen and Adams this week. I expect them to hopefully see even more targets than they already do which could raise their ceiling. My foundation will be based around Packers stacks but do not sleep on the “other candidates” we had CLE/TEN in their last week and it was the money maker.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
