What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Matchups to Attack
Allen Lazard vs DeAndre Baker
Allen Lazard has seen a larger role in the offense over his last six games. He has posted 19 receptions for 227 yards and 1 touchdown on 26 targets over that span. Lazard has seen 328 air yards with a 12.6 aDOT in 2019. He has seen only 3 red zone targets this season, turning those into 2 receptions for 11 yards, although he has yet to score in the red zone.
Lazard has played 33% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers right outside receiver. He’s expected to fill that position in this game. He’ll get a matchup against DeAndre Baker, who has only played 9% of his snaps as the New York Giants left outside cornerback. Baker has been targeted on 19% of his routes covered, allowing a 65% catch rate. He has also given up 0.43 fantasy points and 2.00 yards per route covered in 2019. Baker has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) second worst cornerback in the NFL. When Lazard isn’t across from Baker, he could see time against Corey Ballentine, who is PFF’s worst cornerback this season.
A.J. Brown vs Pierre Desir
A.J. Brown has been enjoying a solid rookie campaign. He has recorded 31 receptions for 581 yards and 4 touchdowns on 50 targets this season. He has also seen 581 air yards with an 11.6 aDOT. Brown has turned a team-high 5 red zone targets into 3 receptions for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2019. He has flashed fantasy upside, as well, scoring a season-high 26.5 fantasy points in his last game.
Brown has played the majority of his snaps (53%) as the Tennessee Titans left outside receiver this season. He’ll face off against Pierre Desir this weekend. Desir has played only 25% of his snaps as the Indianapolis Colts right outside cornerback, but that’s the position he’s expected to play this week. Desir has given up a 72% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to average 0.41 fantasy points and 1.92 yards per route covered this season. Desir has graded out as a bottom-three cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. He has name value, which could keep the ownership on Brown low this weekend. The latter has flashed tremendous upside, though, and makes an elite tournament option on this slate.
Nelson Agholor vs Jomal Wiltz
Nelson Agholor has seen mixed results in 2019. He has recorded 36 receptions for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns on 63 targets. Surprisingly, Agholor has seen 724 air yards with an 11.5 aDOT this season. He has seen five red zone targets. Agholor owns two receptions for six yards and two touchdowns on those targets. He has flashed 20+ fantasy points upside earlier in the season, as well.
Agholor has played 70% of his 2019 snaps as the Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver. He gets a matchup against Jomal Wiltz, who has played 85% of his snaps as the Miami Dolphins slot corner. The latter has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered, allowing his opponents to post a 63% catch rate against him. Wiltz has given up 0.43 fantasy points and 1.33 yards per route covered in 2019, as well. He has graded out as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Agholor missed last week due to an injury, but he could be looking to redeem himself from the New England Patriots game. He’s another high upside option this weekend.
Matchups to Avoid
D.J. Moore vs Quinton Dunbar
D.J. Moore has been enjoying a breakout season in 2019. He has seen 103 targets, turning those into 68 receptions for 905 yards and 3 touchdowns. He ranks 12th in the NBA in air yards (1,076), while posting a 10.4 aDOT. Moore also owns 5 receptions for 28 yards and 1 touchdown on a team-high 10 red zone targets this season. He posted a 6/126/2 line in his last game, scoring a season-high 34.4 fantasy points against the New Orleans Saints.
Moore has played 57% of his snaps as the Carolina Panthers left outside receiver this season. He’ll be guarded by Quinton Dunbar, who has played 84% of his snaps as the Washington Redskins right outside cornerback. Dunbar has only been targeted on 16% of his routes covered, while allowing a 60% catch rate. He has held his opponents to only 0.23 fantasy points and 1.32 yards per route covered in 2019. Overall, he has graded out as the best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Moore could see extra ownership after posting an elite line last weekend, but he is a player that could struggle to produce in this particular matchup.
Deebo Samuel vs Marcus Peters
Deebo Samuel has seen plenty of ups and downs this season. He owns 40 receptions for 523 yards and 3 touchdowns on 55 targets. Samuel has only seen 435 air yards with a 7.9 aDOT in 2019. He does lead the team with 11 red zone targets. He has recorded 6 receptions for 27 yards and 1 touchdown in the red zone, though. Samuel has caught fire recently, though, as he’s averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game over his last 3 games. He has scored 22+ fantasy points in 2 of those 3 games, as well.
Samuel has played the majority (43%) of ihs snaps as the San Francisco 49ers left outside receiver this season. He gets a matchup against Marcus Peters, who has only played 41% of his snaps as an outside right cornerback this season. With that being said, that’s where he’s expected to play for Baltimore. Peters has allowed a 63% catch rate, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He has held his opponents to 0.30 fantasy points and 1.39 yards per route covered this season. Peters has graded out as PFF’s second best cornerback in the NFL, and this is a week to avoid the rookie Samuel.
Tyler Boyd vs Brian Poole
Tyler Boyd has recorded 63 receptions for 699 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. He has seen mixed results with both Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley at quarterback. While he has seen plenty of targets, Boyd has only seen 728 air yards with a 7.1 aDOT. He has also seen only five red zone targets in 2019. He has turned those into 3 receptions for 23 yards and 1 touchdown.
Boyd has played 69% of his snaps as the Cincinnati Bengals slot receiver this season. He’ll face off against Brian Poole, who has played 98% of his snaps as the New York Jets slot corner. Poole has only been targeted on 15% of his routes covered, while holding his opponents to a 62% catch rate. His opponents are averaging 0.32 fantasy points and 1.25 yards per route covered against him. Poole has graded out as the ninth best cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Boyd could feature more ownership with Dalton back at quarterback this week, but he should be avoided until he gets a better matchup.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
