Stats, Stacks, and Simulations
Welcome to the 2nd iteration of the Stats, Stacks, and Simulations rundown for the Week 13 NFL Main Slate! I will continue to work on, improve, and take any and all feedback moving forward on this weekly piece. Think of this as a “data dump” of sorts with different visuals of what I view each week in analyzing the slate.
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LINKS
DK Main Slate – Simulations and Optimal %
Week 13 Position by Position Breakdown
Sam’s Week 13 Conviction Column
PrizePicks vs. Karma Projections (NEW!)
Breakdown:
→ “Top Team Matchups” – Team vs. Team and how they compare in terms of pace of play, EPA, DVOA, and DvP as well as player by player projections and projected stack points/ceiling/cost/value!
→“Top DK/Top FD Stacks” – Previously found in my weekly conviction article; a different visual for game stacks and potential bring back options for top teams
→“Top Projected Players – Points (DK and FD)” – Top projected players on both DK and FD along with my projected ceiling projections (focus on ceiling for GPP lineups)
→“Top pOWN% vs. Optimal Lineup%” – Currently DK only (FD coming soon); looks at the highest projected ownership for players, by position, and compares against my simulations for each play to end up in the “optimal” lineup
→“Slate Simulations” – Also currently DK only; a snapshot of my simulations for all players on the main slate and their likelihood to hit 3x/4x/5x/6x value (value based on price; for example, if a player is 5700, 3x value = 17.1 fantasy points, 5x value = 28.5 fantasy points) as well as their likelihood to finish as the Top/Top 3/Top 5 scorer at their position (this is based on raw points and does not consider salary)
DVOA Stats per FootballOutsiders.com
Sec. per Play (Sit. Neutral) per FootballOutsiders.com
Thanks to EstablishTheRun.com for “PROE” info
Top Team Matchups
PROE = “Pass Rate over Expectation” i.e. how often a team passed compared to how often they were expected to pass
Context: Brady remains one of the few QBs that we always want to stack up and/or double stack with how much the Bucs are passing (1st in the league at 66.2% vs. League Avg. 58.5%; also 2nd in PROE this season and 3rd in PROE over their last 4) no matter what the situation or game script. My favorite way to stack the Bucs this week is Brady + Gronk/Godwin or Gronk/Evans but I think Fournette is viable as he’s seeing between 5-6 targets per game along with a clear stranglehold on the Bucs backfield. I don’t normally stack Evans/Godwin together as they’re 1) expensive with Brady and 2) the best way to differentiate and get leverage is to take advantage of how much Brady spreads the ball to his receivers. If using a bring back it’s probably Russell Gage, if anyone, for me as I get the Pitts play as he’s an elite talent but also an expensive play and Ryan does seem capable in getting him the ball on a consistent basis.
Context: I thought this game would be one of the chalkier game stacks when the week began but it seems like Herbert will be moderately owned as well as the usual double-digit owned guys such as Higgins/Keenan and maybe Mixon. The Bengals defense has looked solid enough this season but are still very beatable, making a Herbert double or single stack with a bring back of either Mixon/Chase/Higgins is a great target. The Chargers pass at a high rate (as seen below), Mike Williams is VERY cheap, and if you want to get different without compromising upside, Ekeler is so involved in the passing game and the Bengals have given up the 4th most Fantasy Points to RB receiving so far this season. Joe Burrow feels expensive and doesn’t have a super high “optimal” probability but I like taking one of his pass catchers as either a bring back or as a one off in another lineup.
Context: If Carr keeps gaining steam, I have no issue playing Heinicke as he is very cheap at only 5600 on DK and riding high after a solid few games for WFT. The Raiders defense hasn’t been stopping anyone and we have a tremendous leverage opportunity in stacking up Heinicke with Terry McLaurin to pivot from the Gibson chalk or stacking up Heinicke/Gibson/McLaurin and hoping to capture most or all of the TDs. This blurb is not to say I don’t like Carr because no one has been shredded by WRs/QBs like WFT and we have a full-time role for the 2700 Foster Moreau and can stack up either Renfrow (chalky; I prefer DJax or Zay Jones) with him. Of note, if you play just about any other TE besides Moreau this week, you should have solid leverage on the field at the position.
Context: The Ravens have been a bizarre team this year with some head-scratching losses and last week, Lamar threw 4 picks against a struggling Browns team. However, this now gives us a tremendous low-owned stack opportunity with Lamar and his pass-catchers coming in very low owned against a defense in the Steelers that historically is “strong” but has been severely below average this season. We know the usage/upside Lamar brings, Marquise Brown is averaging 12+ targets per game over his last 4, Mark Andrews is running a route on 93% of Lamar’s drop backs, and Bateman has solidified himself as the WR2/Slot WR and is only 4900. A LOT TO LIKE. On the Steelers side, yes, Ben is dust. Despite his dustiness, Ben is still chucking and chucking it often to Diontae Johnson, who is averaging around 10-12 targets per game himself… add in Najee/Claypool/Freirmuth as potential bring back options as well, and we have a low-total game that has a lot of strong pieces with 2 very poor defenses… STACK EM UP!
Top DK Game Stacks
Top FD Game Stacks
Top Projected Players – Points (DK and FD)
Top pOWN% vs. Optimal Lineup% – Currently DraftKings only! FanDuel coming soon!
Context: Calculating optimal lineup % should never be the only metric you look at but it interesting to use it to identify possible leverage and who may be going “over owned”
-I like Brady/Herbert/Carr a lot, like the field does, but Lamar and Hurts leverage looks very strong. It is important to pay attention over the next 2 days as Hurts is dealing with an injury that could see him limited, at least for rushing purposes
-Glaring leverage at RB includes Fournette who despite a huge game last week (4 TDs) and a moderate price increase should be between 12-15% owned and our optimal % has him at 21%; Myles Gaskin is interesting with strong usage over his last 4 games, seeing 20 touches in all of them but hasn’t been efficient, which leads to his pOWN% at only 3-5% compared to his optimal odds of around 10%
-The DFS community is much sharper than even a few years ago as despite a terrible game last week, Godwin is looking like the top owned WR and while I like the Godwin play a lot, Mike Evans at only $100 more offers leverage at what should be modest 7-8% ownership with arguably the same, or near same, ceiling as Godwin in this juicy matchup vs. the Falcons; I’ll largely be avoiding Renfrow/Waddle/Cooks as Renfrow doesn’t carry enough ceiling for me in tournaments as a very low aDOT (6.4) PPR machine who will likely need 8-10 catches minimum to hit relevant GPP scores; Cooks is tough to trust as he’s always over-owned and on a bad team while Waddle has caught a lot of steam presumably after his blowup performance last week (quietly, the Giants pass D isn’t THAT bad (around league average in EPA/Play)
-TE leverage is pretty simple this week: Don’t play Foster Moreau in tournaments… and if you do, don’t play him as a one off as he should carry insane ownership and playing nearly any other TE should be +EV in terms of seeking out low owned ceiling players
Top pOWN% FanDuel
Slate Simulations – Currently DraftKings only
