Good evening Karma nation! Last week the optimizer made some great lineups and increased some bankrolls. The Kansas City stack was a money pit returning 4.92x the value. Tyreek Hill, thank you for alone returning over 7x your value! Justin Jefferson also had a great day pulling in two touchdowns. The downside was Waller having his second worst fantasy game this year. This just sets his ownership to be lower this week.
Week 13 has five games with spreads of a touchdown or more and three games with game totals over 50. I am looking at a running back who I am almost certain is going to have another bust out game, a receiver I think could provide necessary leverage, and a team/game stack that have the makings of a high scoring affair. Time to let the optimizer optimize!
OVERWEIGHT: (Derrick Henry) ($9,200 DK)
Some call him King Henry since he was the previous season rushing yard leader. However, this time I have a new name for Derrick Henry, Mr. December!
Henry has a career total of 50 rushing touchdowns, 5,090 rushing yards, and averages 4.8 yards per carry (YPC). 36% of his touchdowns came in December. 30% of his rushing yards came in December. Finally, Henry’s YPC have seen a 12% increase in the month of December. I also attached his monthly career splits below; it is just mind blowing to me.
Currently, Henry averages 114.3 rushing yards/game and continues to lead the league in rushing yards with 1,257 yards this season. Henry averages 23.3 attempts/game but in the last two weeks he has averaged 27.5 attempts. Also, Mike Vrabel may be sending more targets Henry’s way sending him four last week. Tennessee’s offensive adjusted line yards (ALY) is 2nd in the league with 4.94. Cleveland’s defensive ALY is 20th in the league at 4.53.
The trouble people will have with Henry is the matchup does not portray as good compared to Dalvin Cook and, more than likely, Henry will need to score at least twice to pay off his salary price. The optimizer has the Titan’s team total currently at 26.9 but has this game with the highest game total at 53.5. Higher salaries also tend to navigate people off a certain player, and I see that being some of the case this week. Do not overthink it trust the numbers and play Mr. December!
Other candidates: (Davante Adams), (Cooper Kupp), (Michael Thomas)
LEVERAGE PLAY: (Allen Robinson) ($6,700 DK)
DFS Karma projections have David Montgomery projected as second highest owned RB at 20%. This does not surprise me because people know the Detroit Lions are horrendous against the run. I feel it is my duty to remind the people that 9.5% of Bears touchdowns this season came from running the ball. 9.5%! The Bears are 30th in the league for running plays only running it 31% of the time.
Trubisky is expected to start this week. I could be completely wrong, but I have a strong feeling that Trubisky favorite target is Allen Robinson. Trubisky has started four times this year and when he has Robinson has seen 9, 9, 13, and 13 targets. Robinson has a 25.2% team market share (MS) and leads his team in air yards averaging 95.9 per game. The Lions passing defense gives up 7th most passing yards/game (262.8) and 7th most passing touchdowns (22).
We will want to keep an eye on the injury report because the Lions secondary is pretty banged up and could have some starters miss Sunday’s game. If this is the case this could also be considered an overweight play.
Understanding leverage is crucial because by making one move you could drastically hinder or help your lineup. Let the market overreact to David Montgomery and trust the optimizer projections with Allen Robinson.
GAME STACK of the week: Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I will start by saying this is not a must. This could very easily be a Minnesota team stack if you wish.
This is the second highest game total on the slate. I will be choosing to stick to Minnesota’s passing game, fade Cook, and run it back with James Robinson.
The Jaguars passing defense is allowing: 4th most passing yards/game with 279.5, tied for 2nd most passing touchdowns with 23, and 2nd highest QB completion percentage with 69.8%. Minnesota has thrown the ball 51% of the time, however, the last three weeks this has increased to 57%, and last week they threw it 66% of the time. Thielen and Jefferson combine for 56% of the teams market share. An important thing to note is that Cook is negatively correlated with Jefferson/Thielen (-0.14) and Cousins (-0.02). He is actually positively correlated with the opposing QB (0.03) and WR (0.04).
Dalvin Cook is questionable for Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. While I do expect him to play, I do expect the Vikings to lean on their passing game.
James Robinson averages 17.7 attempts/game. In the past four week though he has averaged 21.7 attempts/game. The Jaguars offensive ALY is 5th with 4.77. Minnesota defensive ALY is 28th with 4.74. Not only does Robinson do it on the ground but also through the air averaging 4.5 targets/game with 3.3 receptions/game.
The Jaguars were 7.5 point dogs last week and managed to keep the game close the entire time. This week they are 10 point dogs and if they can do the same than we should have a game with high fantasy production.
Other candidates: (CLE/TN), (LV/NYJ)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (Cincinnati WR)
Miami has one of the best pass defenses in the league. They are 2nd in passing touchdowns only allowing 13 (8 to WR) ,tied for 3rd for completion percentage with 62.3%, and tied for 3rd in QB rating allowed at 84.3.
Cincinnati took the turn for the worse after Joe Burrow’s injury. They now rely on Brandon Allen. Allen was a gamer in college, but the NFL has not been welcoming to him. Allen has only started in four NFL games and his stats are: 49.6% completion percentage, 68.1 QB rating, and 162.8 passing yards/game. Cincinnati defensive adjusted sack rate is 25th in the league. Miami is third highest in league for blitz percentage blitzing 41.5% of the time.
Vegas has favored Miami by 11.5 points and I honestly think that will be smashed. I expect Allen to consistently be under pressure and forcing throws creating turnovers.
Other candidates: (Matt Ryan), (Hunter Henry)
Final Thoughts
Can Week 13 start already? I am anxious for these games because I have a strong feeling the optimizer will lead us to the promise land again.
This week’s slate seems tricky, but after looking at the nuts and bolts I believe it is correlation dependent more than other weeks. I will start my builds with a strong correlated game stack. The Optimizer shows correlation so make sure you utilize this when building. A huge negative correlation is playing a running back and its opposing running back (i.e. Dalvin Cook and James Robinson). Stay away from builds like that.
I will pony up the extra salary for Derrick Henry as you will hear just how good he is in December. We already know we will have an advantage to the field if we play Robinson over Montgomery so that is already a great start. I will have a decent amount of the JAC/MIN game stack but will also be playing the “other candidates” as well.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
