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Matchups to Attack
Anthony Miller vs Corey Ballentine
Anthony Miller has struggled in 2019. Through 10 games, he owns only 23 receptions for 272 yards. He has failed to find the end zone this season. He has seen 423 air yards to go along with a 10.3 aDOT. Most importantly, Miller played a season-high 86% of the Chicago Bears offense snaps last week. In that game, he posted 6 receptions for 54 yards on 11 targets.
Miller played 81% of his snaps as the Chicago slot receiver in 2019. He gets a matchup against Corey Ballentine, who has played 91% of his snaps as the New York Giants slot corner this season. He has been targeted on 24% of his routes covered, while allowing a 75% catch rate. Ballentine has also struggled, allowing his opponents to record 0.32 fantasy points and 1.42 yards per route covered this season. Overall, he is tied for the worst cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Miller comes with quite a bit of risk, but if he’s going to truly breakout, this is the matchup to take advantage of.
Allen Robinson vs DeAndre Baker
Allen Robinson has been the top receiving option for the Chicago Bears this season. He leads the team in targets (86), receptions (57), and receiving yards (633), while ranking second in receiving touchdowns (3). Robinson has seen 914 air yards with a 10.6 aDOT in 2019, as well. He currently leads the team with 9 red zone targets, turning those into 5 receptions for 42 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Robinson has played 40% of his snaps as the Bears slot receiver this season. With that being said, he’s expected to find more snaps as the right outside receiver this week. Robinson will get a matchup against DeAndre Baker, who is in a similar situation. He has played 83% of his snaps as the New York Giants right outside cornerback, but he’s expected to move to the left side against Robinson. Baker has given up a 71% catch rate, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He has also allowed his opponents to post 0.45 fantasy points and 2.12 yards per route covered this season. Baker has graded out as PFF’s worst cornerback in the NFL – tied with Ballentine. Robinson is the safer option of these two, and he makes an outstanding option this week.
Nelson Agholor vs Jamar Taylor
Nelson Agholor has seen mixed results in 2019. He has recorded 36 receptions for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns on 63 targets. Surprisingly, Agholor has seen 724 air yards with an 11.5 aDOT this season. He has seen five red zone targets. Agholor owns two receptions for six yards and two touchdowns on those targets. He has flashed 20+ fantasy points upside earlier in the season, as well.
Agholor has played the majority of his snaps (74%) as the Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver. He’ll face off against Jamar Taylor, who has played 95% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks slot corner. Taylor has also been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, while giving up a 69% catch rate. He has allowed his opponents to average 0.27 fantasy points and 1.48 yards per route covered this season. Taylor has graded out as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Agholor recently turned off his social media accounts because of backlash from Philly fans, and he could be looking for his breakout performance this weekend.
Matchups to Avoid
Marvin Jones Jr. vs Quinton Dunbar
Marvin Jones Jr. continues to produce for the Detroit Lions. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 51 receptions for 655 yards and 8 touchdowns on 68 targets. He boasts 896 air yards and a 13.4 aDOT in 2019, as well. Jones has turned a team-high 11 red zone targets into 9 receptions for 68 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has found success in two games with Jeff Driskel, but the latter is still a major downgrade from Matthew Stafford.
Jones has played 41% of his snaps as the Lions right outside receiver this season. He’s expected to see more time as their left outside receiver this week, though. He’ll get a matchup against Quinton Dunbar, who has played 83% of his snaps as the Washington Redskins right outside cornerback. Dunbar has given up a 63% catch rate, while being targeted on only 17% of his routes covered. He has held his opponents to 0.25 fantasy points and 1.39 yards per route covered, as well. Dunbar has graded out as PFF’s best cornerback in the NFL this season. There are multiple factors working against Jones in this particular matchup, and he can be avoided this weekend.
Randall Cobb vs Jonathan Jones
Randall Cobb has caught fire recently, posting 24.5 and 25.6 fantasy points in his last 2 games. He owns 10 receptions for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 targets in those games. Cobb only owns 590 air yards with an 11.1 aDOT this season, though. Surprisingly, he has seen a team-high seven red zone targets in 2019. He owns 4 receptions for 48 yards and 1 touchdown on those targets.
Cobb has played 87% of his snaps as the Dallas Cowboys slot receiver in 2019, but that won’t matter in this matchup. Jonathan Jones will shadow Cobb, although he has played 84% of his snaps as the New England Patriots slot corner. Jones has held his opponents to only a 41% catch rate, while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to 0.16 fantasy points and 0.77 yards per route covered in 2019. Jones has graded out as the second best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. While Cobb has caught fire recently, he’s a player that can be avoided in this matchup.
Julian Edelman vs Jourdan Lewis
Julian Edelman has been enjoying an outstanding 2019 season. He has posted 68 receptions for 716 yards and 5 touchdowns on 100 targets. Edelman has also seen 919 air yards, although he only boasts a 9.2 aDOT. He leads the NFL with 18 red zone targets. He has turned those into 13 receptions for 84 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Edelman has played the majority of his snaps (69%) as the New England Patriots slot receiver. He gets a matchup against Jourdan Lewis, who has played 92% of his snaps as the Dallas Cowboys slot corner. Lewis has only been targeted on 14% of his routes covered, although he has allowed a 72% catch rate. He has held his opponents to 0.32 fantasy points and 1.25 yards per route covered, though. Lewis has graded out as a top-12 cornerback in the NFL this season, according to PFF. The Patriots are a team tends to capitalize on plus matchups, while avoiding bad ones. Edelman could see limited targets in this game, limiting his value.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
