Hello Karma nation! We had just an ok week last week. Pittsburg’s stack was not a bad foundation, but the Herbert + Allen stack ultimately trumped it. Zeke made me eat my words, putting up 22.4 fantasy points. As for the overweight plays, Harris found the end zone and McLaurin provided his normal production. I have concerns with McLaurin going forward because he is being limited, and not getting the targets he deserves in the end zone.
Week 12 has five games with totals over 50. I have a tight end that is targeted like a wide receiver, a receiver that should have an increased workload, and a team stack I have been patiently waiting to play. Time to let the optimizer do its work and lead us to victory!
OVERWEIGHT: (Darren Waller) ($6,000 DK)
This year Darren Waller is arguably one of the best tight ends in the league! For tight ends, this year he is, 2nd in targets/game at 8.4, 3rd in receiving yards/game at 51.9, and tied for 3rd in total touchdowns. Waller is also receiving 22.5% of the team marketshare (MS)
Waller’s matchup this week has me tempted to push the lock button. Waller is facing a terrible Atlanta secondary that allows most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, 16.8 fantasy points/game. and is tied for most touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season with 8. Atlanta is top ten in league for opponent rushing yards only allowing 106.3/ game. This is important because if Atlanta can shut down Josh Jacobs Waller will have more opportunity to have himself a day.
We have seen three games where Waller sees 10+ targets and when he did, he put up 31.5, 16.8, and 13.2 fantasy points. I expect 10+ targets tomorrow. Waller may not be getting the lock button from me, but he will be one of my highest owned players.
OVERWEIGHT: (Justin Jefferson) ($6,300 DK)
Adam Thielen is expected to sit out Week 12 due to COVID-19. Thielen was receiving 29.8% of team MS.
This brings us to the stud wideout Jefferson. Jefferson is receiving 22.5% team MS, 6 targets/game, and averaging 84.8 receiving yards/game. According to Football Outsiders Jefferson is leading the league for receiving DVOA at 55.4%! The second best is Julio Jones at 35.8%. Carolina runs zone coverage 65% of the time which bodes well considering Jefferson passer rating is 92.7 in zone coverages. The Panthers are allowing eighth most passing completion percentage, 67.9%.
With Thielen out, I see two options for the Vikings: 1) lean on the run game and give Cook 25+ carries 2) Send more targets Jefferson’s way. Cousins averages 27.7 passing attempts/game. If Jefferson receives 25% of Thielen’s MS that is 7.5% more to Jefferson’s MS giving him an additional 2-3 targets.
The Vikings are projected 28 points and I see most of the production coming from Jefferson and Cook.
Other candidates: (Dalvin Cook), (DeAndre Hopkins), (Keenan Allen)
TEAM stack of the week: (Mahomes- $8,000 DK), (Hill- $7,800 DK), (Kelce- $7,000 DK)
The Chiefs are one the most explosive teams in the NFL. They average a league high 32.1 points/game. Kansas City has a 26% DVOA which leads the league for offenses. The Chiefs also lead the league in offensive efficiency, yards/drive (44.98), and points/drive (3.19).
Of the Chiefs 27 passing touchdowns, Hill and Kelce make up for 63% of them. Hill and Kelce also account for just under 50% of the teams receiving MS. This season Tampa Bay is currently allowing 237.5 passing yards/game. However, the last three games Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 260 passing yards/game. Tampa Bay is also 25th in opponent red zone scoring touchdowns only with 68.57%. Tampa Bay runs zone coverage 63% of the time. Hill has a passer rating of 118.10 in zone coverage and his counter part Kelce has a passer rating of 131.30.
This season Kelce is averaging 20.9 fantasy points/game scoring over 20 points in six of his games. Hill is averaging 20.8 fantasy points/game scoring over 20 points in five of his games. The below shows the strong correlation they have with Mahomes. Vegas has this game with the highest game total and if Tampa Bay can make it remotely close we may be in store for a high scoring shootout.
This season I have made too many excuses for not stacking the Chiefs, too expensive, another game that is high scoring, chiefs wont throw this game, etc. Enough is enough they are expensive for a reason. This is the highest game total for the slate. Chiefs pass 75% of the time. I am making Chiefs stacks this week because I cannot take the feeling of getting burned by not stacking them anymore.
Other candidates: (Cousins + Cook + Jefferson), (Herbert + Allen), (Allen + Diggs)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (San Francisco WR)
The San Francisco receiving core is cheap I get that. However, much like Tampa Bay experienced last week, the Rams defense is lockdown.
The Rams defense allows the least amount of fantasy points to opposing wideouts only allowing 29.6 fantasy points/game. They also lead the league with least amount of passing touchdowns allowed only giving up 11 receiving touchdowns this season. The Rams defense is also top 5 in the league for completion percentage allowed ,62.9%, total passing yards allowed, 2006, and yards gained per pass attempt.
The 49ers are 29th in the league for passing touchdowns, and 4th in the league for rushing touchdowns. The 49ers also run out 2 RB sets 41% of the time and targets them 5th most in league at 24.85%. The wide receivers are targeted 49% of the time which is 31st in the league.
Rams opponents average 19.2 points/game, however, when the Rams are at home their opponents average 13 points/game. I will be eliminating the 49ers from my player pool all together as I see them providing no offense against this stingy Rams defense.
Other candidates: (Matt Ryan), (Emmanuel Sanders)
In conclusion:
I am ready for Week 12! After simulating the optimizer so many times we should be very confident this week.
I am hopeful the Falcons can hang around with the Raiders so Waller will rack up receptions. While Cook may get his carriers, I still believe when the ball is thrown majority of the time it is going to Jefferson. The Chiefs will either make me or break me this week because they will be the foundation I build from.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
