Football

NFL Week 11 – Stats, Stacks, and Simulations

by
Sam Scherman
November 19, 2021

Stats, Stacks, and Simulations

Welcome to the 1st version of the Stats, Stacks, and Simulations rundown for the Week 11 NFL Main Slate! I will continue to work on, improve, and take any and all feedback moving forward on this weekly piece. Think of this as a “data dump” of sorts with different visuals of what I view each week in analyzing the slate.

Follow Sam on Twitter @sscherman

LINKS

Projections Portal

DK Main Slate – Simulations and Optimal %

Week 11 Cash Process

Week 11 Position by Position Breakdown

Sam’s Week 11 Conviction Column

PrizePicks vs. Karma Projections (NEW!)

Click Here for Core Plays!

Breakdown:

→ “Top Team Matchups” – Team vs. Team and how they compare in terms of pace of play, EPA, DVOA, and DvP as well as player by player projections and projected stack points/ceiling/cost/value!

→“Top DK/Top FD Stacks” – Previously found in my weekly conviction article; a different visual for game stacks and potential bring back options for top teams

→“Top Projected Players – Points (DK and FD)” – Top projected players on both DK and FD along with my projected ceiling projections (focus on ceiling for GPP lineups)

→“Top pOWN% vs. Optimal Lineup%” – Currently DK only (FD coming soon); looks at the highest projected ownership for players, by position, and compares against my simulations for each play to end up in the “optimal” lineup

→“Slate Simulations” – Also currently DK only; a snapshot of my simulations for all players on the main slate and their likelihood to hit 3x/4x/5x/6x value (value based on price; for example, if a player is 5700, 3x value = 17.1 fantasy points, 5x value = 28.5 fantasy points) as well as their likelihood to finish as the Top/Top 3/Top 5 scorer at their position (this is based on raw points and does not consider salary)