Good evening Karma nation hopefully Week 10 showed you some nice return. The best return I had developed from the Allen + Diggs stack, but was hindered by the high exposure I had to Mike Davis and Jerry Jeudy. Looking to bounce back strong in Week 11. The game totals do not look as high this week, but there are a few mismatches that we must exploit so lets get to optimizing!
OVERWEIGHT: (Damien Harris) ($5,700 DK)
Damien Harris is establishing his dominance in New England’s backfield. He averages 45% of the team market share (MS) for rushing. Harris averages 14.2 rushing attempts/game. However, it seems that his workload has been increasing because the past three weeks he has averaged 17.3 rushing attempts/game. The Patriots lead the league in rushing play percentage at 49.91%. The Patriots also lead the league in touchdowns that were gained rushing at 73.68%. They face a horrendous Houston rushing defense that ranks dead last in defensive line adjusted yards (4.98), rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.2), and last in rushing yards allowed/game (167.4).
You may be worried about Cam Newton taking away some spotlight from Damien. Fortunately, for us Houston is 4th in the league for rushing yards allowed to QB at 87 total yards equaling to 9.6 yards/game. Cam’s MS for team rushing is just below 28%. I still think Cam will have attempts, but I am certainly counting on that 28% MS to get split up benefiting Harris. This means even more rushing attempts!
With Damien you are getting an increase workload, a great matchup, and according to Sam’s Ownership Report a running back that is staying low owned. Sounds like a recipe for victory!
OVERWEIGHT: (Terry McLaurin) ($6,900 DK)
I think we can all agree Terry McLaurin is a workhorse. McLaurin hardly comes off the field playing, on average, 95% of snaps. He is 5th in the league for WR targets/game at 9.7 and averaging 6.3 receptions/game. He is 4th in the league for total receiving yards at 787 and averages 87.4 receiving yards/game. The Washington Football Team is 4th in passing play percentage at 63.06%. Even though Terry may be considered a top WR in the league, the Washington Football Team is 24th in successful passing play percentage at 45.24%. Even though Washington is 20th is red zone scoring percentage, 60.71% (touchdowns only) McLaurin is still leading the team in end zone target percentage at 36.4%. Thankfully, the Bengals defense red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only) allowed is 73.53% which is 27th in the league.
The Bengals play Cover 1, man coverage, 5th highest in the league. The Bengals defense is bottom eight in fantasy points/game allowed to WR (42.4) and is tied with four other teams for 2nd most touchdowns allowed to WR (13). McLaurin feasts on man coverage having 50% of his touchdowns coming against Cover 1.
Alex Smith dropped back 55 times last week trying to comeback against the Lions! If Smith needs to drop back that much again McLaurin might be having a career day.
Other candidates: (Dalvin Cook), (Amari Cooper), (Calvin Ridley)
TEAM stack of the week: (Roethlisberger + WR) ($13,100/$12,800/$12,600 DK)
Pittsburg’s inability to run the ball has discouraged James Conner fantasy owners. Their offensive line ranks 31st in adjusted line yards at 3.78. Pittsburg has also only scored 29.03% of their touchdowns through running. This sets up perfect for an onslaught of Big Ben and his receiving crew.
Now the question is which receiver to choose. I listed the combined salaries of Ben and his wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and Diontae Johnson above. I am fine choosing any one of the WR because the Steelers run out of 3 WR sets 71.33% of the time which is seventh highest in the league.
- JuJu: 9 targets/game w/ 6 receptions/game and 57.3 receiving yards/game
- Chase: 6.6 targets/game w/ 3.9 receptions/game and 54 receiving yards/game
- Diontae 8.1 targets/game w/ 4.6 receptions/game and 53.3 receiving yards/game
The above favors JuJu and so do I. JuJu leads the team in receiving MS at 20.5%. I believe JuJu and Ben are starting to pick up that old chemistry we saw last year. However, when it comes to air yards Claypool leads the team with 80.4 per game.
My ranking: 1) JuJu 2) Claypool 3) Diontae
The Jaguars are bottom ten in the league for fantasy points/game allowed to WR, 40.7, and total receiving yards allowed to WR, 1632. Jacksonville is also 30th in the league, just behind Seattle and Atlanta, for opponent passing yards/game at 283.9. The Jaguars defense is 31st in the league for drives ending in an offensive score at a whopping 50% of the time! Lastly, the Jaguars defense is 29th in the league for touchdowns/drive.
Numbers don’t lie! I expect a big win for the Steelers this week. Our projections for the Steelers team total is currently at 27.2. Big Ben has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season, and last week he threw four. There is plenty to go around for everyone. Take Ben and a fellow wideout. If you believe in Ben as much as I do, take Ben and two fellow wideouts to try and gain leverage with your lineup.
Other candidates: (Cousins + Cook + Thielen/Jefferson), (Herbert + Allen/Williams)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (Ezekiel Elliott) ($6,500 DK)
I am trying to think of a scenario where the Cowboys take a steady lead in this game, but I cant. The reason I say steady lead is, this season, Elliott is game script dependent. When the Cowboys are trailing seven or more points they throw the ball 71.04% of the time which is eleven highest in the league. The Cowboys also pass 5th most in the league at 65.66%. This makes sense because their average lead is 31st in the league at -7.29.
If Elliott got targeted like he did at the beginning of the season he could pay off his price tag, but his last three weeks he is averaging 2.33 targets/game with 1.33 receptions/game. The Cowboys offensive line has been dealing with injuries all season. Zack Martin, their starting right guard, is back but their center, Tyler Biadasz, just got ruled out. I also am not sure where these fumbles are coming from. Zeke has fumbled five times this season losing four of them. Last season he only had three. This has allowed Tony Pollard to eat in Zeke’s rushing MS. The last three weeks Pollard saw 28.8% rushing MS.
There are better prices and options, rather than Zeke, this week at the RB position. I will need to see some improvement in his game or a volume increase before I start investing in him again.
Other candidates: (AJ Green), (Drew Lock)
Final Thoughts
Lets get excited for Week 11! We have great pricing and matchups where we can see some high scoring lineups.
I am planting my flag with Damien Harris and hoping to see him run all over a porous Texan’s defense. I am expecting Terry to have another great game and maybe even lead WR in points this week shall Alex Smith be able to find him in the end zone. From the spread, Vegas and I are both expecting a huge game from Pittsburg and this is where I will start my foundation of building this week.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
