NFL Week 11 Best Bets to Make
Atlanta Falcons (-173)
This prediction simply comes down to game theory. The Atlanta Falcons have looked outstanding offensively at home this season, and the Dallas Cowboys simply don’t have the offense to match their upside. In five home games, Atlanta is averaging 32.2 points per game. Dallas has scored more than 27 points in only one game this season, while scoring 20 or fewer points in six games. The Falcons don’t have a defense that will be able to completely stop the Cowboys offense, but they should be able to simply outscore them. While Dallas hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy production to opposing quarterback, they are allowing the sixth highest QB rating (101.3) in the NFL. Matt Ryan and the passing attack is the focal point of the offense, and there’s simply no reason to believe Dallas will be able to keep up with Atlanta if this game turns into a shootout.
Bet 3 units on Atlanta ML to win 1.7 units (-173)
Kansas City Chiefs (+145)/Los Angeles Rams (-170)
It’s difficult to feel comfortable betting a total this high, but that’s where we’re at with these offenses. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams rank second and third in the NFL in scoring, respectively. Overall, the two teams are averaging 68.8 points per game this season. Los Angeles has featured an above average defense this season, while Kansas City has been around average. That likely won’t matter, though, as offenses generally take over in these types of games in the NFL. We saw this when the Rams and New Orleans Saints combined for 80 points the other week. There is also evidence that games with these high of totals rarely (if ever) hit the under. Overall, two of the best offenses are going to be looking to put on a scoring shot in a primetime game on Monday night.
Bet 3 units on Kansas City/Los Angeles OVER 63.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Washington Redskins (+140)
The Washington Redskins are seemingly underdogs on a weekly basis, but they have found plenty of success throughout the season. They feature an elite defense, allowing only 19.4 points per game in 2018. They have also allowed 17 or fewer points in six of their nine games. They get a tough matchup against the Houston Texans, who have found plenty of offensive success this season. They started the season out 0-3, including a bad loss against the New York Giants, before winning six consecutive games, although none have been against high-level competition. Washington could potentially negate Houston’s best weapon – DeAndre Hopkins – by utilizing Josh Norman to shadow him. Washington always makes games ugly, and that will likely be the case again this week. In that situation, I’ll take the home team at underdog odds.
Bet 2 units on Washington ML to win 2.8 units (+140)
Parlay 2 units on Carolina ML, Philadelphia/New Orleans OVER 56.5, Denver/Los Angeles UNDER 46.5 to win 8.8 units (+438)