Good evening Karma nation, hopefully Week 9 was full of winning lineups. It was green over here! We optimized Dalvin Cook and Houston’s passing game, and saw some great returns. One day I will get onboard with the terrific trio that is Maholmes/Hill/Kelce, but since the Chiefs are on a bye this week we shall look elsewhere. Looking into Week 10, I see interesting volume uptick, a salary price that’s absurd, and a dynamic duo that should crush the slate yet again, so lets get to optimizing!
OVERWEIGHT: (Jerry Jeudy) ($5,600 DK)
Jeudy’s target market share has steadily increased over the past three weeks (10.5%, 26.3%, 31.1%) and is now becoming a focal point around this Broncos offense. His route running is flawless, averaging 2.8 yards of separation from cornerbacks. Jeudy averages a team leading 7.7 targets/game and 60.5 receiving yards/game. We have him projected to lineup across cornerback, Devin Lawson, who is allowing a QB rating of 115.63. The Broncos are third in league with targets of 20+ yards or more at 15.25%. The great thing about this is Jeudy is 8th in the league for air yards. It is apparent Lock is getting more comfortable launching it downfield to Jeudy because his past three weeks of air yards (58, 162, 193) look great! The one thing missing from Jeudy exceeding fantasy expectations this year is touchdown equity. He only has 2 touchdowns this year, but the Broncos are doing their best giving him, another team leading, 29.4% end zone share percentage. If he can get a touchdown, he should easily return the value needed for a winning lineup. The Raiders are currently favored by four. The Broncos are 28th in the league for average lead at -6.11. Expect the Broncos to stick to their passing game with Jeudy being the main target.
OVERWEIGHT: (Mike Davis) ($4,000 DK)
A couple things to note here. First, many in the industry knew DraftKings made a mistake when pricing Davis, but they made the pricing before hearing the news of McCaffrey being out. Second, we fully anticipate Mike Davis to be the highest owned running back this week.
Sometimes I see chalk and stay far away, but sometimes I see chalk and load up on it more than I do the first plate at Thanksgiving!
Before CMC came back, Davis was averaging a snap count of 81.6%. Davis averages 6.1 targets/game with 5.4 receptions/game. Even though Tampa Bay’s defense has only allowed a league lowest 502 rushing yards, they are also 2nd worst for receptions to running backs, and 3rd worst for targets to running backs. Tampa blitzes at a crazy 43.5% of the time. This sets up perfectly for Carolina’s 2nd in the league for percentage of targets behind the line of scrimmage (20.19%). Davis also has 10 targets inside the 20 which is eighth in the league. These stats give me reassurance that eating the chalk is ok, but the biggest influence is Davis’ price of $4,000 on DraftKings. The projections agree as well making Davis our best value play on the slate. Do not be afraid, get ready for the check downs and enjoy one more week of Mike Davis.
Other candidates (James Conner), (DeVante Parker), (Davante Adams)
TEAM STACK: (Allen + Diggs) ($15,000 DK)
Currently, at 56.5, this is the highest game total on the slate. Budda Baker (Arizona free safety) and Dre Kirkpatrick (Arizona cornerback) are listed as questionable and I believe this game total will go even higher if they get listed out between now and game time. Buffalo is 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in yards/drive (40.42), and 6th in touchdowns/drive (33.3%). Allen is getting it done with his arm as the Bills are 4th in the league for total passing yards with 2,493. They still lead the league in successful passing plays as well, at 55.87%. Arizona’s defense ranks fourth in % of team touchdowns that were passing at 73.68%. The Bills have scored 28 touchdowns this season with 19 coming through the air, and 9 on the ground. Allen has consumed 5 of these touchdowns on the ground.
Onto Diggs. This man is an absolute target market share monster. Diggs is 2nd in the NFL with 30.3% target market share just behind Davante Adams. He is 1st in the league for total receiving yards at 813, 3rd in the league for targets/game at 10.1, 5th in the league for receptions/game at 7. He averages 107.7 air yards/game and Allen has a QB rating of 103.4 when targeting Diggs. Arizona’s defense runs Cover 1, or man coverage second highest in the league. This is a recipe for disaster for Arizona’s defense because Diggs has 120 passer rating against man coverage and creates 2.9 yards of separation against defensive backs. Next Gen Stats shows Allen having over 120 passer rating on the entire right side of the field and Diggs lines up on that side 58% of the time.
Diggs got away with one last week when Stephon Gilmore was ruled out. This week he will go against Patrick Peterson, which is no easy matchup, but we will see if he shadows Diggs. I expect the points to be poured on in this game and I do not want to miss out on the two I believe to put up the most fantasy production.
Other candidates (Tagovailoa + Parker), (Goff + Woods/Kupp)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (DJ Chark Jr) ($6,200 DK)
It is never personal it is just business. Chark’s 70-yard bomb helped me profit last week so I feel bad going this route. I do not like taking wide receivers against one of, if not, the best cornerback in the league, Jaire Alexander. Alexander has allowed 0.55 cornerback yards/route, has a cornerback target rate of 12%, and a cornerback/QB rating of 52.62. We have a rookie QB throwing to him on the road with weather projections of 30 mph winds in Lambeau. Our projections are showing the Jaguars to have the second lowest team total on the slate at 18.6. I am anticipating an offensive onslaught for the Packers with the Jaguars not having any answers.
**Jaire Alexander DNP Thursday. If he is ruled out for the game this makes the fade null-and-void**
Final Thoughts
We have another exciting week of football ahead of us! We should see a ton of points in the BUF/ARI game, so make sure you have some shares of it. I am expecting CMC back Week 11, and we could say this is Mike Davis’ curtain call. With his recent volume uptick, Jeudy is a touchdown away from producing elite WR production. Due to cheap pricing and heavy targets on two games, I think this slate will be chalkier than most. If you do lean with some heavy chalk, make sure you throw one or two sleepers to help keep your lineups diversified. As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week. If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
