What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Matchups to Attack
Mike Evans vs Ahkello Witherspoon
Mike Evans enjoyed an outstanding 2018 season, posting an 86/1,524/8 line on 138 targets. His numbers are a bit more impressive than on the surface, as he dealt with inconsistent quarterback play between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Evans will likely see an uptick in value with the addition of an offensive-minded Bruce Arians. Most importantly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers possess a projected team total of 25 points, and Evans averaged 28.7 DraftKings (DK) points per game in games that he scored a touchdown last season.
He played 48% of his snaps as the Tampa Bay left outside receiver in 2018, and he’s expected to play a similar role in the Bucs offense this season. Evans gets a matchup against Ahkello Witherspoon, who played 85% of his snaps as the San Francisco 49ers right outside cornerback last season. The latter was targeted on 21% of his routes covered, while giving up a 59% catch rate. Witherspoon allowed 0.38 fantasy points and 1.50 yards per route covered in 2018. He also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) worst cornerback in the NFL over 387 routes covered last season.
Julio Jones vs Xavier Rhodes
Julio Jones is coming off of a dominant 2018 season, as he recorded 113 receptions for 1,677 yards and 8 touchdowns on 170 targets. He also led the team in the red zone, where he posted a 10/100/5 line on 17 targets. Jones was one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL in 2018, as he saw 8+ targets in 14 of his 16 games. He also scored 20+ DK points in 9 of his last 11 games, averaging a healthy 23.4 DK points per game over that span.
Jones played 50% of his snaps as the Atlanta Falcons left outside receiver in 2018, and there’s very little reason to believe he won’t see similar snaps in that position again this season. He gets a matchup against Xavier Rhodes, who played 64% of his snaps as the Minnesota Vikings right outside cornerback last season. That isn’t likely to matter, though, as Rhodes is expected to shadow Jones this week. Rhodes surprisingly struggled last season, as he allowed a 63% catch rate, while being targeted on 19% of his routes covered. He has also given up 0.29 fantasy points and 1.29 yards per route covered in 2018. Rhodes saw 421 routes last season, and he graded out as the eighth worst cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF.
Marquise Goodwin vs Vernon Hargreaves III
Marquise Goodwin dealt with injuries throughout the 2018 season, playing in only 11 games. In those games, he posted a 23/395/.4 line on 44 targets. Over a 16 game season, those numbers would be extrapolated to 34 receptions for 575 yards and 6 touchdowns on 64 targets. Goodwin flashed tremendous upside in 2018, though scoring 32.1 DK points during a Week 6 loss to the Green Bay Packers. He has been listed as the WR2 behind only Dante Pettis, although he’ll be battling with George Kittle for targets, as well. Ultimately, Goodwin is likely to take on the role of the deep threat in this particular offense.
He played the majority of his snaps (43%) as the San Francisco 49ers left outside receiver last season, and that’s likely to be the case in 2019. He’s expected to get a matchup against Vernon Hargreaves III, who played 66% of his snaps in the slot in 2018, but is expected to slide into the right outside cornerback role this season. Hargreaves allowed a ridiculous 83% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered last season. He struggled in coverage, allowing 0.67 fantasy points and 1.80 yards per route covered last season. He also graded out as a bottom-12 cornerback in the NFL in 2018, per PFF.
Matchups to Avoid
Parris Campbell vs Desmond King
Parris Campbell broke out with a 90/1,063/9 line during his senior season at Ohio State in 2018. He was then selected 59th overall by the Indianapolis Colts. Campbell flashed early in camp before suffering an injury, and missing the majority of the preseason. He played in one game, catching three of four targets for 42 yards. Deon Cain is currently listed as the WR3 for Indianapolis, but it’s reasonable to believe at this time that Campbell could steal slot snaps in this game.
He has yet to play a snap during the regular season, but Campbell is expected to play the majority of his snaps in the slot this season. If that’s the case this week, he’ll get a matchup against Desmond King, who played 97% of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers slot corner last season. He was targeted on only 12% of his routes covered in 2018, while allowing a 64% catch rate. King has also held his opponents to 0.20 fantasy points and 1.09 yards per route covered last season. He graded out as the best cornerback in the NFL in 2018, according to PFF. With a lack of sure snaps and arguably the most difficult matchup on the slate, Campbell’s electric potential has to be avoided for at least one week.
Robby Anderson vs Levi Wallace
Anderson enjoyed a bit of a breakout season in 2018, posting 50 receptions for 752 yards and 6 touchdowns on 94 targets over 14 games. Anderson recorded three or fewer receptions in each of his first seven games. In his final seven games, he averaged a 4.7/62.6/0.4 line on 8.3 targets per game. Anderson led the New York Jets in red zone targets in 2018, but he was one of four players that saw 8+ red zone targets, and he could give way once again to Le’Veon Bell in that area of the field this season. Still, New York should feature an improving offense, and Anderson could be in line for a larger target share over a 16 game span.
He played 41% of his snaps as New York;s left outside receiver last season, and he’s expected to fill that role once again in 2019. Anderson will get a matchup against Levi Wallace, who quietly dominated last season. He played the majority of his snaps (83%) as the Buffalo Bills right outside cornerback. He allowed a 63% catch rate, while being targeted on only 14% of his routes covered last season. Wallace has also given up only 0.23 fantasy points and 0.82 yards per route covered in 2018. He isn’t seen as the best cornerback in Buffalo, but he graded out as the third best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Anderson always comes with deep threat potential, but this isn’t the matchup to utilize him in.
Corey Davis vs Denzel Ward
Corey Davis has been one of the more frustrating wide receivers in the NFL since being drafted in 2017. Last season was no exception, as he ended the season with 65 receptions, 891 yards, and 4 touchdowns on 112 targets. He also led the Tennessee Titans in red zone targets (15), while posting a 6/47/2 line in that area of the field. Davis has suffered from inconsistent quarterback play since being drafted, as Marcus Mariota has missed plenty of games since then.
He saw the majority of his snaps (46%) as Tennessee’s right outside receiver in 2018. He’ll face off against Denzel Ward, who played 72% of his snaps as the Cleveland Browns left outside cornerback last season. He was targeted on 18% of his routes covered, while holding his opponents to a 54% catch rate. Ward also held his opponents to 0.29 fantasy points and 1.24 yards per route covered in 2018. He graded out as PFF’s seventh best cornerback in the NFL as a rookie last season. He’s likely to progress as a player as he gains experience, and Ward shadowed opposing WR1s at times in 2018. He’s one of the best young players in the league, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him jump into the top-five this season.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
