Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Coming off flat to down performance across all sportfolio strategies last week, we head into Week 7 with some of the most confidence and conviction of the season. As you may know, we have been very explicit about de-risking the sportfolios week-over-week, frustrated with the lack of discernible value capture. However, we look at the Week 7 card and see some of the most mispriced risks available to exploit since Week 1, when we mopped up and went 5-0, returning 5% in our NFL Core sportfolio. Speaking of performance, season-to-date, the Core sportfolio, our flagship strategy, is +12.2%, supported by a 21-8-1 record.  Elsewhere, the Aggressive sportfolio, designed for those with a much more leveraged appetite, is +43.5%, and the Conservative sportfolio, designed for those with more limited budgets, is -4.3%, but is nonetheless still beating its mandated benchmark, which is the top 3 public consensus picks. We recognize Conservative is vastly underperforming the more risk-on strategies. As such, we are going to continue to re-think how to approach allocation strategies for this sportfolio, and will likely avoid bland parlay and teaser exposures and instead seek out higher-return exposures, with just less risk taken.

Core Strategy (risking 6.3% to return 5%):

1. Giants -2.5: 1.3% to return 1%
2. Seahawks -2.5: 1.1% to return 1%
3. Jaguars -3: 1.5% to return 1%
4. Jets +10: 1.2% to return 1%
5. Bears -3.5: 1.2% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 3% to return 3.35%)

1. Jaguars/Seahawks ML parlay: 1% to return 1.6%
2. Jets +10: 0.6% to return 0.5%
3. Bears -3: 0.7% to return 0.5%
4. Giants/Bills ML parlay: 1% to return 0.75%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 16.6% to return 30.8%)*:

1. Giants -2.5: 2.6% to return 2%
2. Seahawks -2.5: 2.2% to return 2%
3. Jets +10: 2.4% to return 2%
4. Bears -3: 1.4% to return 1%
5. Jaguars/Seahawks ML parlay: 2% to return 3.2%
6. Jaguars/Bills/Jets ML parlay: 1% to return 6.3%
7. Niners -3/Giants +4/Rams +4 7pt teaser: 1% to return 1.2%
8. Giants -2.5/Rams -2.5/Titans PK/Seahawks -1/Bears ML: 1% to return 10.1%
9. Jaguars -3: 3% to return 2%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. 

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals).

Performance Reporting/Full Transparency

As promised, we will continue to provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday. Check out our review of Weeks 5 and 6.