We had positive performance across three of four sportfolio strategies this week, with the Conservative sportfolio modestly underperforming. Our highest conviction plays (Bears money line and Seahawks +4) served as strong drivers of positive return across all sportfolios. Unfortunately, regrettable miscalculations on Raiders +7.5, the total in Raiders/Chiefs, and Vikings +3.5 were detractors from performance. Core, our most important and flagship strategy, went 3-2 and returned +0.7%; Conservative went 2-2 and returned -1.2%; Aggressive went 15-12 and returned 3.3%. Both our Conservative and Core strategies continue to beat their benchmarks by 0.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Listen to our initial reactions to Week 2 action and a preview of Week 3 spreads here.
While net performance wasn’t as memorable in Week 2 as it was in Week 1, we delivered positive returns and continued to grow our bankrolls – all while taking minimal risks – which we believe is a testament to true manager skill. Season-to-date, Conservative is -0.1%, Core is +5.7%, Aggressive is +17.6%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +18.5%. We are very excited about this level of performance, especially considering the fact that we aren’t taking much risk at all to achieve these returns. Indeed, average risk taken per bet across all risk-profiles was between 1.1% and 1.3%. Although we allocated to more positions in Week 2 v Week 1, we actually reduced the amount of risk; decreasing the higher level risk band from 1.4% to 1.3%.
In addition, performance isn’t inflated by exclusively taking heavy money line favorites to distort the perception of our overall winning percentage. This is quantitatively demonstrated by the average implied win probability of positions taken (based on market price/odds). Consistent with the risk-profiles of our strategies, the Conservative sportfolio has taken positions with the highest probabilities/lowest potential payoffs (54.1% per bet), and the Aggressive sportfolio and Multi-Sport Total Return Fund with the lowest probabilities/highest potential payoffs (53.8% and 47.9%, respectively).
We understand bettors have a lot of options when it comes to selecting an advice provider, and recognize that it takes time, trust, transparency, and strong performance to earn your hard earned dollars. As such, every week, we will also showcase how our flagship NFL Core strategy performed v.s. who we believe to be relevant competitors in the marketplace – this ‘relative return’ performance metric demonstrates the efficacy of our strategy against some of the next best alternatives.
This week, our primary benchmark, the SuperContest Consensus Top 5 picks, went 3-2 for the second straight week, winning Browns, Cowboys, and Rams, and losing Steelers and Bengals. Usually anytime a pick is above 30% it’s an exceptionally high conviction position (1-0), and the Top 3 overall picks went 2-1. Right Angle Sports crushed Week 2 going 5-0, selecting the Bills, Cardinals, Cowboys, 49ers, and Browns.
Breakdown of NFL Core, Conservative, and Aggressive Sportfolios
- Vikings gave up 21 points in Q1 v the Packers, but held them scoreless for the rest of the game. Kirk Cousins threw and INT in the endzone on 1st and Goal from the 8 yard line, which was the nail in the coffin for both the Vikings and our +3.5 allocations. While we do want to be more cautious trusting Cousins in road games, we are not too unhappy with the Vikings selection and believe it was the right side.
- Taking the Bears money line, as opposed to the -2 or -2.5 spread, proved critical, as the Bears blew a 6 point lead with 2 minutes to go, before kicking a 50+ yard FG as time expired to win the game by 2 points. We avoided the push or the outright loss by allocating to the money line, which was based on our thinking that this game may come down to only a point or two.
- The Conservative strategy’s negative performance for the week can be directly attributable to the Texans poor showing v the Jaguars and winning by only 1 point, which crushed our 1.3% teaser. Texans were up by as many as 10 points in Q4, before penalties and multiple 4th down conversions by the Jaguars made the game much more competitive in the final minutes. This loss by a 1/2 point swung the sportfolio a net of 2.3%, and what would have otherwise been a solid 1.2% gain on the weekend.
The Aggressive strategy leveraged several positive-EV prop positions this week, which are posted and made available Sunday mornings exclusively to subscribers in our Discord chat. Please continue to be on the lookout for these prop recommendations, in addition to live in-game wagering, which provide dynamic hedging opportunities to boost overall performance, throughout the week and on gamedays in Discord.
Learn more about the overall approach to the NFL sportfolio strategies here, and remember to follow our ultra aggressive Multi-Sport Total Return Fund strategy exclusively on Twitter by following Brett Matthew and Zach James at @nonrandomalpha and @zjalpha for free pregame and in-game bets throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro over the course of a calendar year).