Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) is offering several NFL Draft props, specifically surrounding a few players. Each player is assigned a specific number, and you select whether you think that player will be drafted before (less) or after (more) that pick. For example, if you’re selecting that Jameson Williams will be selected before the 13th overall pick (12.5 on MKF), you’d select less.
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In this article, I’ll be outlining my favorite 2/2 “More or Less” play for the NFL Draft.
2/2 More or Less – NFL Draft
Malik Willis over 10.5 Pick Position
This is an interesting pick because Willis could go as high as number two overall. With that being said, there are plenty of players that are gaining steam heading into Thursday night, and oddly enough, a quarterback isn’t one of them. There have quietly been more reports about teams looking to acquire Jordan Love from the Green Bay Packers than we’ve seen about Willis, or any other quarterback, potentially sneaking into the top 10.
The real reasoning behind this play lies with the betting odds. DraftKings is offering Willis at pick 13.5 for their draft position odds. Not only that, but he’s also -160 to go over pick 13.5. That gives us a three-pick buffer from what is offered on MKF with heavy juice on the over. Although I under quarterbacks generally go higher than normal, I feel completely comfortable following the odds on this play.
Ikem Ekwonu under 4.5 Pick Position
Ekwonu is one of the more difficult prospects to get a handle on at this point. There are some rumors that the Jacksonville Jaguars are still considering him for the first overall pick. I don’t believe those to be true, but it’s important that we understand his true ceiling could potentially be first overall.
Ekwonu then would likely be selected at third overall to the Houston Texans. Once again, this is far from a lock, as there are multiple reports that they could draft one of the top two cornerbacks. If that’s the case, Ekwonu’s next logical option would be fifth to the New York Giants.
You see the dilemma here, right? Since he’s sitting at 4.5 on MKF. Well, there are several reasons to believe he could go under this rather than over. First, his ceiling is potentially first, while his floor is fifth. That gives us quite a bit of room to work with.
Even if Houston doesn’t select him third, there is an outside chance that someone offers enough to the New York Jets for the fourth overall pick to jump the Giants, who are an obvious option for him.
This pick has significantly more contingencies than Willis, but the odds are in our favor once again. DraftKings also has him set at 4.5, although they have him -150 to go under. We’re going to follow the odds once again here, given there are more avenues to being selected before 4.5 rather than after at this point.
Bet Malik Willis “more” 10.5 and Ikem Ekwonu “less” 4.5 to win 2.5x your buy-in
