What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my WR/CB Matchups Article. In this article, I will be breaking down three of the best and three of the worst matchups across this weekend’s games. I can’t believe we are already through a quarter of the season; it seems like this season is flying by already. Although, the good news is that we have plenty of data to dissect going into this week to find the best edge to win you the week. On top of the free articles, we have a FREE discord where we are always bouncing ideas off each other. Outside of all the FREE content, we offer paid subscriptions. Whether you are low on time or just want to know exactly what we are playing, the premium side of discord is always active, as we have subs continuously asking questions about how to build their lineups.
Last Week’s Results:
Best Matchups:
Brandin Cooks: 13 Targets, 9 receptions, 89 Yards (1 Drop)
Chase Claypool: 7 Targets, 2 Receptions, 17 Yards (Played through early injury/ 1 drop)
Robby Anderson: 11 Targets, 3 Receptions, 11 Yards, 1 TD (3 Drops)
Worst Matchups:
Hunter Renfrow: 5 Targets, 3 Receptions, 36 Yards
Tim Patrick: 6 Targets, 3 Receptions, 42 Yards
AJ Green: 6 Targets, 5 Reception, 79 Yards, 1 TD
Wide Receiver and Cornerback matchups are one of the staples of fantasy football. A lot of people will take a look at the overall matchup on defense. While that is important, it is also critical to take your research a step further and dive into the micro matchup between the WR and who he is lining up against the majority of the game.
This Week’s Matchups:
Best Matchups:
Cooper Kupp vs AJ Parker
You don’t really need a good matchup to be convinced to look at Cooper Kupp as a top play on the slate. Kupp has finished as a top 5 WR in three of the first six weeks and a WR 1 in 4/6 weeks to start the season, in full PPR formats. He is second in the league only behind Davante Adams for Targets per route run, receiving a target on 32% of his RR. This compared to Adams’ 34%. Where Kupp has Adams beat is his league-lead 0.75 Fpts per RR. Although, Adams comes in slightly ahead of him in yards/RR. Adams leads the league with 3.48 while Kupp falls into fourth with 3.20. Deonte Harris and Deebo Samuel edge him out. Kupp comes into this week tied for first in redzone targets with 12, as well as tied first with six redzone touchdowns. Kupp also leads the league in targets while having the second-highest target share behind, you guessed it, Davante Adams. The only receiving stat Kupp does not find himself in the top 5 in is air yards, he ranks 13th while ranking second in yards.
Parker has dropped back into coverage just 108 times this season. He is giving up the 6th most yards per snap out of the slot, the highest QB rating, most touchdowns, 5th most receptions per snap, and a league-high 88% catch%. The Lions’ defense, in general, is bad and you can target them all over the field but they have been especially bad in the slot this season. Expect the Rams to use Kupp early and often. My main concern for them is if they get the early lead and run the clock, but the Rams need to get to the lead somehow and that will be on the back on Cooper Kupp and the passing game.
Calvin Ridley vs Dolphins Back up Corners
Ridley has not jumped off the paper as a top WR this season but he has quietly excelled. After the horrible week one showing for the Falcons. Ridley has put up double-digit targets in every game since then and has seen his targets trend upwards every game this season. Starting with 8 targets in week one to coming off a 13-target game in week four before the London trip he did not attend. This has led him to two weeks off of football to rest up and become fully healthy. Even though he has not been injured, two weeks off is a huge help to get your body right. Ridley’s air yards have not fully transferred over to his fantasy production yet. He is currently second in the league with a 47% air yards share. Ridley ranks 5th worst with a 0.56 RACR with a minimum of 400 air yards to qualify. This means he has only converted 56% of his air yards in actual yards.
Keep an eye on the Dolphins injury report this week. If Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are to miss another week, Calvin Ridley could be in store for a huge week against some backup corners. Last week we saw Trevor Lawrence post his first 300-yard passing game of the season against these backups and I expect Ryan to emulate that success.
Marquise Brown vs Chidobe Awuzie
Marquise Brown’s success has been a product of an injured run defense leading to an, even more, air-heavy offense from Baltimore than we all expect. Prior to the run-heavy blowout game against the Chargers, Jackson was averaging over 300 passing yards per game. There are currently only 5 QBs that are averaging over 300 yards per game. Brown is currently 8th in the NFL in receiving yards and 4th in receiving TDs. Brown has gone for 90+ yards in 3 of the first 6 games and has gone for 6+ receptions in 3 of the first 6 games as well. If he did not have an issue dropping the ball in the Lions game he may be a top 5 fantasy WR in the league. This has led to Brown finishing in the top 17 WRs 4 out of 6 weeks and coming off a dud week where Lamar only threw for 167 yards in a 34-6 victory.
This week he will be matched up against Chidobe Awuzie for the majority of the game. This is going to be another exploitable spot for him. Apple was someone we exploited in the early season but now Awuzie has been getting torched recently. The Bengals numbers are a little bit skewed based on their opponent’s skills. They have allowed three 300 yard passers but at the same time have held three QBs to 204 yards or fewer. That included the Lions, Jaguars, and the Bears. In the two games, Awuzie has been active for when the Bengals allowed a 300 yarder passer, he allowed more than 10 targets and close to 100 yards in each of those games. Even though he dropped back into coverage the 8th most in the league during those two games, He allowed a target every 3.8 snaps a league-high. Also allowing the 8th most yards per game, while only breaking up one of 23 targets.
Worst Matchups:
DK Metcalf vs Marshon Lattimore
Metcalf has had him up and down weeks so far this season. He has had two top 10 finishes but has also finished below a WR 2 in three of six weeks so far this season. Including only WR 34 and 11.8 fantasy points last week. He and Lockett both tied for a team-high 7 targets. Although he hauled in 5 as Lockett only grabbed 2. It does not help that he lost his Quarterback, Russel Wilson, to a thumb injury. They have also faced three formidable pass defenses in the process. Lattimore should be lined up against Metcalf for the majority of the game which will spell trouble for the third-year veteran.
After a rough season last year, Lattimore is putting himself back into the conversation as one of the best corners in the league. Lattimore’s stats are a little skewed since he was the one who allowed the 54 yards touchdown to Saquan Barkley in week four. If you remove that number he is only allowing 0.92 yards per route covered. He is actually being targeted a ton but none of the balls are connecting due to his league-high 11 forced incompletions. For reference, second place has six and forcing an incompletion on 39% of routes targeted. Lattimore is being targeted every 6.1 snaps but has only allowed a completion every 14.3 snaps. His 43% catch % ranks him 4th in the league
Jakobi Meyers vs Michael Carter
Meyers is someone I have loved to play all season but he is someone you really want to avoid in bad matchups. One thing Meyers flaunts is a high target volume and is someone I play more for receptions props than in DFS. Although, he has back-to-back weeks of posting WR2 numbers when he was featured in this article due to fantastic slot matchups. One major flaw in his fantasy game is that he has yet to catch a touchdown this season or even in his career. 40 players have 40 or more targets this season and he is the only one without a touchdown among those players; he has 51 targets. He also has four redzone targets and one target inside the 10. So, his touchdown week is coming we just don’t know when.
The Jets feature two rookies from the 2021 draft both named Michael Carter, one is from Duke and one is from UNC. I am not sure why but I find that hilarious. Two rookies with the same name, drafted the same year, coming from rival schools. The 5th round pick out of Duke has played fantastic this season which is not something you normally see from a rookie corner. Overall the Jets’ defense has not been horrible when their offense is able to stay on the field. Last game was the first week the slot was able to put up over 25 yards against them and that was due to a mismatch where he had to line up against rookie TE Kyle Pitts. On the season, Carter has allowed only 0.92 yards per route covered, and if you remove the Atlanta game he has allowed only 0.65 yards per route covered. On the season he has allowed just a target every 5.6 snaps and a reception every 8.4 snaps. Both of those ranking top 10 best. The Jets have already gone up against the Jets in week two. The Patriots won 25-6, Mac Jones threw from 186 yards and Meyers only had 38 yards with only 7 coming against Carter.
DeVonta Smith vs Casey Hayward Jr
With Zach Ertz out and Dallas Goedert potentially out for the Eagles, it would make sense to load up on DeVonta Smith. Smith is leading the team in air yards % (39%) and target share (24%). The two TEs make up for 25% of the targets and 32% of the air yards on the team. Last week against Tampa Bay the Bucs were not able to get much done as Hurts finished with 115 passing yards with their main production on offense coming on two huge 50 yard DPI calls flipping the field and resulting in redzone opportunities and scores each time. If they don’t end up getting those DPI calls I am not sure if the Eagles even score that game. Smith ended up finishing with two receptions and 31 yards on four targets. This was Smith’s third-worst performance of his rookie year. As you can tell he is extremely boom or bust, going for 70+ in half his games and going for fewer than 31 yards in the other half of his games.
Casey Hayward has been amazing this season and making his case for the best cornerback in the league. This should not come as a huge surprise as he was a top 10 cornerback for the majority of his career. This season he has taken the extra leap into the elite tier and is someone you should avoid targeting all season. The Raiders defense starts up front. The Raiders rank first in the league with a 34% pressure rate, this may cause trouble as the Eagles allow the 7th highest pressure rate on the season at 28%. Out of 30 qualifying QBs Hurts ranks, 27th in completion % under pressure at 39.1%. Hayward did not allow a yard in the first two weeks of the season while dropping back into coverage 77 times he allowed 5 targets but no receptions. It was not until week 3 he started allowing receivers to catch the ball. This has resulted in only 0.37 yards per route covered this season, the third-best in the league. Last week was the first week someone was able to do relatively well against him. He has allowed 87 yards on the season and 48 came last week against the Broncos. Hayward leads the league by only allowing a reception every 26.3 snaps and a target every 11.3.
Individual WR/CB Matchups Chart
