What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my WR/CB Matchups Article. In this article, I will be breaking down three of the best and three of the worst matchups across Sunday’s main slate of games. We are excited to provide you with the amazing NFL DFS content you have gotten to know to love in order to help you become the most profitable DFS player possible. On top of the free articles, we have a FREE discord where we are always bouncing ideas off each other. Outside of all the FREE content, we offer paid subscriptions. Whether you are low on time or just want to know exactly what we are playing, the premium side of discord is always active, as we have subs continuously asking questions about how to build their lineups.
Last Week’s Results:
Best Matchups:
Terry McLaurin: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 62 Yards, 19% Target Share
DeAndre Hopkins: 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 83 Yards, 2 TDs, 25% Target Share
Brandon Aiyuk: 0 Targets, 0 Receptions, 0 Yards (Injured?)
Worst Matchups:
Diontae Johnson: 10 Targets, 5 Receptions, 36 Yards, 1 TD
Courtland Sutton: 3 Targets, 1 Reception, 14 Yards
Sterling Shepard: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 113 Yards, 1 TD (3 Tar, 2 Rec, 17 Yards vs Callahan)
Wide Receiver and Cornerback matchups are one of the staples of fantasy football. A lot of people will take a look at the overall matchup on defense. While that is important, it is also critical to take your research a step further and dive into the micro matchup between the WR and who he is lining up against the majority of the game.
Best Matchups:
Keenan Allen vs Jourdan Lewis
Keenan Allen and the Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a fantastic showing against one of the top defenses in the league. Allen and Williams both had their way with the Washington Football Team. Partially due to the lack of pressure the Football team was able to get, Herbert was pressured a league-low 12% of dropbacks last week. This was able to help the receivers run their full routes to get open. This making it evident why the Chargers only checked it down once last game.
The Cowboys are known for having a bad defense and that was evident last Thursday Night as the world saw the shootout on opening night of the NFL season. There could be a duplicate performance from both sides this Sunday as two of the top offenses in the league will be going head-to-head. Allen ran 58% of his snaps out of the slot last game, a slight bump from last season where he ran 51% of his snaps out of the slot. Although, this is probably just variance based on a small one game sample size. He should see around 75% of snaps against Lewis and Anthony Brown, the two that had the worst performances on Thursday. Combined they allowed 203 of the 379 yards Tom Brady threw. While also allowing 14 receptions on 20 targets and two touchdowns. So, when Allen slides into the slot he will be up against Jourden Lewis and when he goes outside, 50% of the time he should be on Brown. Therefore, expect big games from both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this weekend.
According to the Projections Portal, Allen is projected to be the 9th highest scoring WR on the slate with 17.52 fantasy points.
AJ Green vs Bresaud Breeland
AJ Green did not wow us in his first game with the Arizona Cardinals. Pulling down two of his six targets for 25 yards coming on 53 air yards. This came with a blowout win against the Titans where the game script changed in the fourth quarter so he could see an increase in targets against the Vikings if the Vikings can keep the game close. This would not come as a surprise as if you take a look at Betkarma’s live trends pagethe Vikings are only a 4.5-point underdog. Although, that line has moved from starting at only a 2-point underdog.
Bresaud Breeland appeared to be the problem on the defense for the Vikings last week against the Bengals. Breeland lined up 100% of his outside corner routes on the left side and Green lined up 96% of his outside WR routes on the right side of the field. Meaning Green should mainly see Breeland while DeAndre Hopkins gets the tougher matchup with Patrick Peterson on the other side of the field. This is important because Breeland’s side is the side where the most volume came from. He allowed 107 yards, five receptions on eight targets, and two TDs. While Peterson only allowed 13 yards, two receptions on three targets with 20 YAC and a -1.3 aDOT. Meaning he only allowed yards on WR screens. Avoid Peterson’s side while attacking Breeland.
Davante Adams vs Amani Oruwariye
Something that strikes me even more than the matchup, which is extremely prime, is the fact that Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he got embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints. This is a similar situation as we saw last season when the Packers got blown out 38-10 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In this game, Aaron was also benched for the final quarter for rest since the game got out of hand. The next game Aaron Rodgers slung four touchdown passes, resulting in an unimaginable 196 yards, 13 receptions on 16 targets, and two touchdowns for Davante Adams against the Houston Texans.
Last game Oruwariye allowed eight targets five receptions, and 82 yards. This as well as a target every 3.5 snaps and a reception every 5.6 snaps. Overall, the Lions’ defense is in store for a rough showing as they lost last year’s number three overall pick, Jeff Okudah. Anytime Adams goes up against a bottom-of-the-barrel defense you can attack him in DFS and props. Expect a huge game from Adams as the Packers look to torch the Detroit Lions defense.
Worst Matchups:
DeVonta Smith vs Deommodore Lenoir
It was a thing of beauty to see the Davonta Smith Jalen Hurt connection again. The duo is coming off a fantastic showing against the Atlanta Falcons as they won with ease 32-6. Smith is coming off an amazing rookie debut, 71 yards with 6 receptions on 8 targets and one touchdown. Before you get excited to throw him in your lineups after a fantastic rookie debut, pump the breaks for a second and think of the change in matchups he will be getting this weekend.
He is not going to be matched up against a big-name corner like the rest of the guys on this list but the outside corners on San Fran were able to get the job done last week against the Lions. The issues the 49ers saw were when their linebackers were lined up in coverage as well as, of course, garbage time prevent defense. It appears that Hurts is going to have to rely on his TE this week as the Lions did last week. Per PFF, Deommodore Lenoir and K’Waun Williams dropped back in cover on 70 and 51 routes. Lenoir allowed one reception on three targets for three yards. While Williams allowed 0 receptions on two targets in the slot. The only corner that allowed any production was Jason Varrett who allowed three receptions on six targets for 24 yards. Although, he is now out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL. Unfortunately, he may have played his last game in the NFL after previously tearing his ACL and Achilles while with the then San Diego Chargers. As you can see the way to attack them is through their LBs when they drop back in coverage. Fred Warner and Azeez Al-Shaair gave up 16 receptions on 20 targets for 156 yards, mainly finding yards after the catch with 107 yards after catch.
Zach Pascal vs Jalen Ramsey
The Colts’ offense in general outside of runningbacks looked horrendous. The WRs were used at the second-lowest rate in the league. The only team with a lower target share to WRs was the New Orleans Saints. Mainly due to the lack of pass attempts outside of the RedZone and the injuries to two of their top three WRs. The Colts WRs had a 40% target share with runningbacks having a 43%. This is a trend we may not see improve against the tough defense of the Rams. Although, Pascal seemed to be the only WR in this offense that was able to get anything going. He finished the game with four receptions on five targets and 43 yards as well as finding the endzone for the lone two touchdowns for the Colts. Expect another heavy usage game for the running backs in the passing game against the Rams.
Jalen Ramsey played the majority of the team’s slot corner snaps. Covering in over 50% of the teams’ nickel packages. As a team, the Rams shut down the slot but gave up a ton of targets and receptions last game. As a team, the Rams gave up six receptions on ten targets for a measly 33 yards. Even though they gave up a ton of receptions the aDOT was low enough for that not to matter much in the long run. Give up the 2-3 yard reception down the middle for an easy tackle. Overall with Ramsey in coverage he allowed five receptions on seven targets and a low 35 total yards. Giving up just seven yards a reception with an aDOT of 4.0.
Laviska Shenault vs Bryce Callahan
Shenault is coming off a game where he caught seven receptions off of nine targets for 50 yards. Shenault was on the field for 70% of the offensive snaps while seeing 42 slot snaps and 10 out wide. He ran a route on 78% of all passing downs.
Callahan played fantastically in his time in the slot. Even though Shepard ended up with over 100 yards, Callahan held Shepard to only two receptions and 17 yards on 3 targets. So, before you jump the gun on slot WRs against Denver being a thing, make sure to dive deeper into the data. He was highlighted in my article as a tough matchup for a reason last week. As we saw last season with the Broncos having a fully healthy team, Callahan spends all his time in the slot. He started four total games as the main slot corner. During those four games, he allowed 6 receptions on 14 targets and 41 yards while in the slot. Overall, he covered 107 routes, while only allowing a target every 7.6 snaps and a reception every 17.8 snaps. If he sustained that throughout the season they would rank fourth and first best in the league respectively.
Individual WR/CB Matchup Chart
