What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my WR/CB Matchups Article. In this article, I will be breaking down three of the best and three of the worst matchups across this weekend’s games. I can’t believe we are already through a quarter of the season; it seems like this season is flying by already. Although, the good news is that we have plenty of data to dissect going into this week to find the best edge to win you the week. On top of the free articles, we have a FREE discord where we are always bouncing ideas off each other. Outside of all the FREE content, we offer paid subscriptions. Whether you are low on time or just want to know exactly what we are playing, the premium side of discord is always active, as we have subs continuously asking questions about how to build their lineups.
Last Week’s Results:
Best Matchups:
Brandin Cooks: 14 Targets, 6 reception, 56 Yards
Stefon Diggs: 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 85 Yards
Cooper Kupp: 13 Targets, 11 Receptions, 95 Yards
Worst Matchups:
Keenan Allen: 13 Targets, 12 Receptions, 104 Yards
Mike Williams: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 58 Yards
Jamal Agnew: 5 Targets, 3 Reception, 27 Yards
Wide Receiver and Cornerback matchups are one of the staples of fantasy football. A lot of people will take a look at the overall matchup on defense. While that is important, it is also critical to take your research a step further and dive into the micro matchup between the WR and who he is lining up against the majority of the game.
This Week’s Matchups:
Best Matchups:
Mike Evans vs Kyle Fuller
Mike Evans may be the only healthy starting pass-catcher to suit up for the Bucs. They will be without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski but they also may be without Chris Godwin this week. Evans is coming into this week as WR11 on the season with three WR6 finishes or better. The Bucs offense is full of weapons but when they are dealing with injures these weapons are able to be showcased even more when they are condensing the usage rate among these stars to just potentially one of them in this case. Evans has one game played without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this season, he ended as WR3 on the week with 31.6 fantasy points. His line was 6 receptions and 76 yards with 3 touchdowns on 10 targets against the Bears. You can expect a similar ceiling this week against a poor Washington secondary.
Luckily for Mike Evans this condensed usage rate also comes with a top matchup against Washington’s declining corner Kyle Fuller. Fuller has dropped back in coverage for 300 snaps, he is allowing a target every 5.6 snaps and a reception every 8.5 snaps. He is the 5th most targeted corner in the league, in turn, allowing the 3rd most receptions in the league. Fuller is allowing 1.15 yards per route covered and 0.25 fantasy points per route covered. Although he has not given up any huge game, he has consistently given up yards every game. Outside of the two run-heavy offenses for Denver and New Orleans, Fuller has allowed 40+ yards in every game and 50+ in all but one game.
Cooper Kupp vs K’wuan Williams
With the Rams signing Odell Beckham Jr adding him to an already amazing WR core, this could be the last week we see Kupp put up far and beyond overall WR1 numbers weekly. Kupp ranks first in targets, first in receptions, the first receiver to reach 1000 yards on the season, only 10th in air yards, but makes up for it being second in yards after the catch, he’s also the first WR to reach double-digit touchdowns, and leads the league with 21 redzone targets. His 34.44% air share ranks 17th among WR and his 32.78% target share ranks third among WRs.
There is not normally much convincing you to play Kupp each week but again he has another fantastic matchup. The 49ers have been stringing together pieces for their secondary all season. We just saw the Cardinals tear them apart without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, what do you expect one of the top offenses in the league to do? Williams’ numbers are deceivingly good mainly due to the lack of elite slot corners he has matched up against but the 49ers’ defense has been getting exposed through the air in general. He has lined up in the slot for 219 snaps this season, he has allowed 111 yards, and 70 of them coming after the catch. This is one of Kupp’s strong suits. He ranks second in the league in YAC and 6th in YAC per reception. Expect Williams’ numbers to come back down to Earth as he finally gets up against a great WR for the first time this season.
Tyler Lockett vs Rasul Douglas
With Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson projected back to start this week, this game now has much more shootout potential compared to if Jordan Love and Geno Smith were starting. Lockett started the season as one of the top fantasy WRs, finishing in the top 7 both of the first two weeks to start the season. Then the fall-off happened, 4 of the next 5 games he finished as WR60 or worse. His one better game he finished as the WR38. As well, the transition from Russ to Geno Smith did not help his case. Although right before the bye last week, he finished with 26.2 fantasy points finishing as WR5 on the slate. He took advantage of a horrid Jacksonville defense putting up 142 yards and 12 receptions on 13 targets, finishing the week 5th in air yards, tied for 4th in targets, but tied for first in receptions.
Rasul Douglas has always been a liability on defense in his career but has made some key plays for the Packers this season as he is trying to help fill the role Jaire Alexander left. He was the one that came up with that huge interception in the Thursday Night game against the Cardinals to seal the win where AJ Green thought it was a run play instead of a fade to the back of the endzone. Douglas will be starting his 5th game for the Packers this season; he has been targeted 21 times allowing 100 yards and 11 receptions in 154 coverage snaps. He is also leading the league in defensive penalties among corners during this time so these numbers are a little lower than what they would have been if he didn’t skew them based on these penalties. While only played four games this season he is actually leading the team with penalties this season.
Worst Matchups:
Terry McLaurin vs Jamel Dean
McLaurin has been anything but consistent this season. He has three top 5 full PPR finishes against the Giants, the Falcons, and the Packers. All three of those games you could have expected great finishes in. In the Packers game, they were without Jaire Alexander and Kevin King. In the remaining five games this season he finished WR45 or worse, averaging 8.46 fantasy points per game in those contests. While averaging 27.73 PPR points per game in those three top 5 finishes. He is the true definitely of boom and bust. Someone you love in best balls and GPPs but hate for season long as he could make or break your week depending on the matchup.
This week the Washington Football will be going up against one of the better defenses in the league with a banged-up secondary. The good news for Tampa is they have one healthy CB as they only need one because Washington only has one good WR. Outside of week one where Dak threw the ball 58 times inflating Dean’s stats in a bad way, Dean has been one of the best coverage corners in the league. If you remove week one, Dean ranks first in coverage snaps per reception at 25.8, 5th in coverage snaps per reception with 9.8, and QBs have a league-low 8.5 passer rating targeting him. He has only allowed 8 receptions over those 6 games on 21 targets for 72 yards. Holding opposing receivers to 0 yards twice. Expect Dean to follow McLaurin around shutting him down for another WR45 or worse finish.
Michael Gallup vs AJ Terrell
Michael Gallup has been out since week one and is going to have a tough time in his first game back. We only have a half of game data on Michael Gallup this season but he ended with 7 targets, 4 receptions, and 36 yards during that time. This came in a game where Dak had 58 pass attempts since they were playing from behind against a high-powered offense. That will not be the case this week as they are 8-point favorites. Although, if you have watched the NFL over the last week, that apparently means nothing as the touchdown favorites keep losing. The Cowboys just lost to the Broncos as 9-point favorites last week. Any given Sunday any team can win, but let’s please get back to some sort of normalcy.
On a team that is not known for their defense, Terrell is one of the bright spots the Falcons can lean on as the 2020 draft pick tries to turn them around. He has PFF’s second-highest coverage grade among cornerbacks this season, only behind Jalen Ramsey. Terrell has dropped back in coverage 259 times this season, he has allowed a target every 8.7 coverage snaps and a reception every 18.7 coverage snaps. As well as allowing a league-low 5.7 yards per reception. He has broken up 21% of targets thrown his way, ranking 4th best in the league. In short, don’t throw to his side.
Elijah Moore vs Tre’Davious White
Elijah Moore seemed to have his breakout last week after hauling two touchdowns against the Colts on Thursday Night. He has quietly had a great season based on volume, seeing 6+ targets in 5 out of 7 games he was active. Even with these high targets he only has a 13.5 % target share but a nice 20% air yards share. He converted his two lone redzone targets into touchdowns over that time as well so I am expecting his touchdown production to fall back down to Earth.
Moore is going up against one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Although, you have not heard his name much this season; he is quietly having himself a great year. He has not shown the shutdown corner stats that we are used to from him due to the plethora of garbage time receptions opponents have been able to get on him. Plus, coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Jags I am sure we will see the defense playing 110% this weekend to ensure a win. White has dropped back in coverage 321 times this season. He has allowed 257 yards and 26 receptions on 50 targets this season. He has only given up 50+ yards in two games this season; once was against the Chiefs and once was against Washington due to one long garbage time Terry McLaurin reception. He has given up two double-digit target games, one was that Chiefs game, and the other was against the Dolphins where he only allowed the WRs to secure three of those targets for 20 yards. Expect White to handle the Jets with ease outside of a large lead during garbage time Moore should be held in check this week.
