I want to begin the article this week by informing you that this is, to date, the ugliest slate of the season. Just four of the ten games have totals over 43 points, and it’s going to push some heavy chalk onto the more enticing games. That being said, I will write up the plays I’m considering from each games — just know it will probably be a more condensed list than usual.
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Eagles 23.5, Bears 18.5
Outlook: As you can read above, this is far and away the worst slate of the season and we kick off this week with a game sporting a 42 O/U. Mitchell Trubisky continues to look inept as a Quarterback, but the only play I’m truly considering from this game is a Wide Receiver from the Bears — that’s DFS for you! Reinforcements from the IR are not going to save this Eagles secondary, that was routinely dusted in 2018 and badly needed a big-time DB to be brought in via the trade deadline. Robinson has laughed in the face of bad QB play once again this season, topping 11 PPR points in all but one game and topping 20 three times. He had success against this secondary a year ago, and is one of my favorite WRs on the slate.
The Eagles are in a weird spot, with the Bears defense not being as good as last season, but also not being bad enough to really target in fantasy. They have struggled against the run since Akiem Hicks went down, so perhaps a tournament shot on Jordan Howard is in play. Miles Sanders had the big game last week on splash plays, but Howard saw 24 touches and should be fired up to face his former team. Miles Sanders also missed some practice time this week, if he was unable to go, we could most likely elevate Howard to the cash game tier.
Cash Game Options: Allen Robinson
Tournament Options: Jordan Howard
Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bills 23, Redskins 14
Outlook: Regardless of the Quarterback situation in Washington, I see myself full-fading them as a team in this contest, on the road against a really good Bills defense. Their season has been a disaster thus far, Trent Williams still refuses to play even after not being traded, and they are implied for a lowly 14 points. The lone interesting play on this team weekly, Terry McLaurin, will be blanketed in shadow coverage by Tre’Davious White, who has yet to allow a touchdown this season.
On the Bills side of the ball, we can get a bit more excited, but the masses may shy away here due to game-script concerns. I always say that my job is not to predict blowouts, especially in NFL, so once again I will most likely fade that strategy and consider Josh Allen in all formats. We have yet to see a true smash game like we saw down the stretch from him a season ago, but he has been able to post 18+ DK points in every game but one in 2019 — the outlier being against New England. This is one of his softest matchups of the season, and as a huge home favorite on a relatively barren QB slate, he is an option for me.
Devin Singletary dominated the snaps over Frank Gore last week despite seeing just seven touches, and one of those went for a touchdown on a pass caught out of the backfield from Allen. The Redskins rank bottom three in the NFL against pass-catching Running Backs this season, meaning we could get a true breakout game from Singletary this week and this is someone I want to be exposed to in tournaments. John Brown hit double-digit fantasy points sixth time this season, and should fare well against this Redskins secondary as long as the weather cooperates this week. I don’t typically have a ton of interest in Cole Beasley, but we may be forced into considering him this week if more value doesn’t open up. This looks like a slate where we want to rely on the floors of guys like Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, but that’s not easy to do when there isn’t a lot of value. Beas has 6 and 7 targets in the two games out of the bye for Buffalo, and has found the box in each game — he draws a soft matchup in the slot this week and remains cheap on both sites.
Cash Game Options: Josh Allen, Cole Beasley
Tournament Options: John Brown, Devin Singletary
Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Panthers 23, Titans 19
Outlook: This game seems to be a battle of the backfields, with limited options I am interested in outside of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. We’ll start with the Titans, who fed Jonnu Smith seven targets last week while Corey Davis and AJ Brown largely disappeared. They get a much tougher matchup this week against a legitimately good Panthers secondary, and I will be avoiding the situation as a whole outside of Smith should Delanie Walker miss this weeks game.
Similar to the Bears, the Panthers have sorely missed a key DT, and that has resulted in them getting absolutely punished in the run game. Tevin Coleman ran wild on them in Week 8, which gives me a positive outlook on Derrick Henry this week, as the Titans continue to be a run first team. Henry has handled 16+ rushing attempts in every game this season, and it would be wise for the Titans to feed him in Week 9. His low volume in the passing game makes him a GPP-only play, however, better suited for FanDuel and it’s non-PPR scoring.
On the Panthers side of the ball, it’s all Christian McCaffrey as the early Kyle Allen magic has faded, but it doesn’t seem like Cam Newton is close to returning from his foot injury either. CMC showed just how matchup-proof he really is trouncing the undefeated 49ers defense for 150 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. This has resulted in a $10,000 price tag on DraftKings, and will leave us with some tough decisions to make on Sunday. This is something I will dive into on this weeks cash game article, but he is easily the top RB play again this week and the Panthers should continue to focus the offense around him with limited QB play.
Cash Game Options: Christian McCaffrey, Jonnu Smith (if Walker out)
Tournament Options: Derrick Henry
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
Outlook: Obviously this is not one of the games with an attractive total, but the Dolphins are arguably the softest matchup in the league at this point so deciding what to do with the Jets is one of the keys to this slate. Sam Darnold has been punished each of the last two weeks by dominant pass rushes, but he gets a much friendlier matchup this week as the Dolphins come in second-worst in the NFL in QB pressures. He isn’t as safe as some of the other options on this slate, but I also don’t think he is bad and this is an elite matchup. I’m tagging him as a tournament play for now, but he could get elevated for me as the week ends.
Le’Veon Bell expressed his distaste with his lack of touches to the media after not being traded, and this is definitely the spot to feed him — the Dolphins have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the NFL. He comes at a discount compared to the top backs on this slate, but his floor is nowhere near as secure so he remains in the GPP-only conversation for me this week. Sans Kenyan Drake, Mark Walton was in on just south of 90% of the snaps while seeing six targets. The Jets run-defense has actually been pretty stout this season, but I’m going to leave Walton potentially in the cash game conversation should we not get any other value this week…scary, I know.
Attacking Miami in the slot has been a plus all season, which bodes well for Jamison Crowder who leads the Jets in targets by seven this season. He is priced in the mid-tier on all sites and I am tagging him as a cash game option whether you play Sam Darnold or not. In tournaments, Robby Anderson is the guy I want to focus on after he was not traded at this weeks trade deadline. Anderson’s speed gives him slate-breaking upside every time he takes the field, and he actually leads the Jets in weighted opportunity rating this season. The extra time to throw should help Darnold pick out Anderson down the field — he owns a 13.6 aDOT this season, and I like stacking him with Darnold and Bell, while running it back with Preston Williams.
Note: I prefer Crowder/Anderson to Demaryius Thomas, but it is worth noting that DT has led the team in targets over the last few games.
Cash Game Options: Jamison Crowder, Mark Walton (maybe?)
Tournament Options: Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, Le’Veon Bell, Preston Williams, Demaryius Thomas
Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Implied Team Totals:
Outlook: This should be one of the better real-life games on the slate, even if the Chiefs decide to hold out Patrick Mahomes for another week, but there are a number of DFS viable plays within as well. Starting with the Vikings, you could make the case for Kirk Cousins as a GPP option given how he has played in recent weeks, but to me, this sets up so perfectly for a Dalvin Cook smash game. Cook has been severely limited in games where the Vikings are easily winning late in the game this season, which shouldn’t be the case this week. This also is a legit run-funnel matchup with the Chiefs ranking bottom-three in run DVOA. He’s neck-and-neck with CMC as the top RB play this week, and I would love to jam them both into my main lineup.
Stefon Diggs has been on an absolute tear, topping 100 yards in his last three games. The Vikings should have Adam Thielen back this weekend to take some looks away from him, but both are elite plays in tournaments and should go relatively under-owned.
Patrick Mahomes was listed as questionable for this game, so we don’t exactly know what’s going on there. If he is out, that would give another start to Matt Moore who has actually played pretty well in his absence. As shocking as it sounds, the QB pool is really gross this week, so I would be interested in punting with Moore should he start. This will be a competitive game, and I have enough confidence in Andy Reid to put Moore in a position to succeed — he should be able to comfortably beat his low salary based expectations.
I, once again, won’t be touching the Chiefs backfield after Damien Willia,s out-snapped LeSean McCoy last week, but we can look at Tyreek Hill in tournaments. I, and others, were right in our early season predictions that Xavier Rhodes has lost a step and is not the same player he once was, which bodes extremely well for a speedster like Hill. The Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL against Tight Ends this season, making it a clear Hill game in my opinion and the GPP outlook would only improve for him if Patrick Mahomes returns to the lineup.
Cash Game Options: Matt Moore (maybe?), Dalvin Cook
Tournament Options: Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Colts 21.5, Steeles 20.5
Outlook: With just a 41.5 O/U in Vegas, this game doesn’t feature a ton of DFS plays, but it does have arguably the best play on the slate for the price in Jaylen Samuels. James Conner was labeled doubtful on Friday afternoon, with Benny Snell listed out, opening the door fir Samuels to be locked into the RB1 role for the Steelers this weekend. We actually saw Samuels run the wildcat a few times this season as well, so I wouldn’t rule that out either, but it gives us some much needed value and helps in our attempts to jam in both Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. He seems to be a lock in all formats for me at this time, and I will dive more into the situation in my cash game article.
Another play I like in this game for tournaments is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who isn’t having as bad of a year as people make it seem. JuJu has had to deal with less targets, but his production on the targets he has seen is as good as it has been at any point in his career — it’s just weird to me that AB leaves and he sees less work, but it is what it is. The Colts defense schemes targets to the middle of the field, which will fit right into Smith-Schuster’s game as the slot receiver in this offense. Furthermore, Jaylen Samuels is headed for chalk status in Week 9, meaning that JuJu will go even lower-owned than first anticipated…people don’t roster multiple guys on one team in DFS.
We also got some surprising news with TY Hilton being ruled out. I already was planning on fading the Colts due to this matchup with the Steelers defense, but now we have potentially some needed value opening up. The immediate beneficiary would probably be Zach Pascal, but I will dive more into this in my Building Blocks article.
Cash Game Options: Jaylen Samuels
Tournament Options: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 21, Broncos 18
Afternoon analysis will be posted after NBA lock tonight
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Packers 25.5, Chargers 22.5
Afternoon analysis will be posted after NBA lock tonight
Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Raiders 26, Lions 24
Afternoon analysis will be posted after NBA lock tonight
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 29, Bucs 23
Afternoon analysis will be posted after NBA lock tonight
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
