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Quarterback
When looking at cash game roster construction in Week 9, the decision becomes very easily — and it’s between Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love. This is a potential ceiling spot for Jackson, who is due for some major positive touchdown regression as we head into the second-half of the season. Jackson ranks seventh-best in fantasy points at his position, but comes in at 18th in TD%. Minnesota’s best pass rusher, Danielle Hunter, is out this week, increasing the chances of a Jackson ceiling game. He, and other mobile QB’s, have always exceled vs zone-heavy defensive schemes. I may not play him in cash games on DraftKings, but I will look there in FanDuel and in one of my main GPP builds if I decide to take the value with…
Jordan Love. This might be the most interesting slate of the season due to the presence of some legitimate value at the QB position. In the old days of DFS, everyone would be running to the lobby to lock in Love, but with how strong the mid-tier has been this season, we may not need the value. This slate lacks the typical lock button spend ups like Derrick Henry, a healthy CMC, etc. That being said, the Packers have one of the highest team totals on the slate at 27 points, and you can save between $3,000-$4,000 in salary by dropping off the top QB’s for Love. This gives you so much room to play anyone you want, and gives you more room to make mistakes that you don’t have when spending up at the position. I recall earlier this season having a Justin Fields lineup score 195 DK points in his first career start, the one in which he couldn’t crack 6 DK points. My personal playing style is inclined to take the savings, and load up on the rest of my team, but I think the optimal lineup construction conversation comes down to just these two guys in Week 9.
In tournaments, I’ll be chasing the ceiling outputs from the likes of Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I’ve talked often about how I am not worried about this KC offense, and will once again go back to Mahomes in GPPs. They will eventually adjust to how these defenses have been defending them, and a large portion of Mahomes’ turnovers have been bad luck/tipped passes. Continue to ride him at low ownership.
The two wildcard QB’s for me this week are Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins. Carr has been a force since Gruden was fired, topping 10 YPA and sporting a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. I think this sets up well for Las Vegas, who are coming off their bye week while the Giants are on a short week after a tough game in Kansas City. Carr will be in my 3 max entry pool on Sunday.
As for Cousins, I think this spot sets up really well for him. I feel very confident in the Ravens offense in this spot, which should force this old school Vikings mentality to be a bit more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball. This hasn’t been the same Ravens defense of old, and they’ve coughed up the 10th most passing yards in 2021. Cousins to Jefferson stacks are in play for three max and larger field contests as well.
Main Lineup: Jordan Love
Main GPP: Lamar Jackson
3 Max GPP Adds: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
Running Back
RB is once again loaded in the mid-tier, with Alvin Kamara leading the way in pricing at just $8,200. When looking at expected OWN% — we have Zeke Elliott and Austin Ekeler leading the way, followed by Cordarrelle Patterson, Kamara, and Myles Gaskin.
Elliott and Ekeler are what I view as good chalk for cash games and single entry this week. Elliott has been logging a heavy workload in recent weeks, and the Broncos have been a defense teams want to run the ball against…and will now be without Von Miller. Philly has also been a team we like to attack with pass catching running backs — they’ve allowed the second-most catches to Ekeler’s position and he should be able to feast on their lackluster LB corps.
Outside of those two, I’m not enthused with the rest of the chalk. I like CPat’s game a lot, but he split time pretty evenly with Mike Davis last week and now they are in a tough matchup vs the Saints. Gaskin is much better on FanDuel where he is cheaper, and Nick Chubb isn’t someone I’ve been able to sell myself on this week. I will eat the chalk in cash games with a Zeke/Ekeler pairing and will likely look to play 4 WR in my cash game build on DK.
For GPPs, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Eli Mitchell stick out as strong plays in 3 max and larger field stuff. Cook will eventually pop for a big game, and there would be no better time for it to come this week in what very well could be a shootout with the Ravens. Mixon’s matchup doesn’t stand out, but the usage will be there coming off his second-best snap% of the season in Week 8. Cincy is favored in this game, and I expect them to feed Mixon once again vs the Browns.
Mitchell is the wild card for me, as he is listed questionable, as is Jeff Wilson. As I noted on the video this week, I think Kyler sits and I expect San Fran to win this game. They want to run the ball, and the Cardinals are down JJ Watt on the defensive line. The 49ers line can open up holes vs anyone, and if the 49ers do win we can expect another heavy workload for Mitchell. If he ends up active on Sunday, he will be in a few of my tourney builds.
Main Lineup: Alvin Kamara, Zeke Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Myles Gaskin (FD only)
Main GPP: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Eli Mitchell
3 Max Adds: Zack Moss, Devontae Booker
Wide Receiver
Wide Receiver is more of what we’ve seen in recent weeks. We have Tyreek Hill projecting for huge OWN% up top, and then a slew of mid-tier guys projecting well in terms of value and expected OWN%. This spot sets up really well for Hill, who has been force fed by Mahomes even more than usual over the last two weeks. Green Bay is still without Jaire Alexander, and I think Hill is closer to an $8,500 WR…he is a lock for me as a cash game anchor and will be inlcuded in my Mahomes stack as well.
As far as the sub-$6K tier goes. we have 15%+ expected OWN% on all of Tee Higgins, Kadarius Toney, Jarvis Landry and Amari Cooper…with Jerry Jeudy right there at 12% as well. Of the group, Landry is my least favorite, as he has the lower ceiling and you aren’t getting him at any sort of discount, so for that he is out of my pool personally.
My favorite of the group is Kadarius Toney, who will get the luxury of playing without Sterling Shepard. The last time we saw this situation, Toney was fed 13 targets and delivered a 10-189 day, and more importantly was used all over the field. I like him in cash games, and as a run back in my Carr stack.
Higgins and Cooper are both strong plays, you save a few hundred by dropping to Higgins and I think he will likely be the highest-owned WR once again due this price. Nothing sticks out elite about Cooper’s matchup, he should see the bulk of Patrick Surtain coverage, but he is just flat-out better than a $5,700 WR…what was DK thinking here?
One play I really like this week for even cheaper, is Hunter Renfrow. New York is extremely banged up in the middle of their defense, which bodes well for both Renfrow and Darren Waller post-Henry Ruggs. Renfrow leads the team in catches, and makes for a strong mini-correlation stack with Toney even in a non-Carr team.
Brandin Cooks is another conviction play for me this week, he has seen some of the best raw usage in the NFL and now gets a QB upgrade with Tyrod Taylor back at the helm. He led the Texans in targets with Taylor at QB earlier this season, and could be in for a ceiling game as the Dolphins have allowed the third-most DK points to his position.
For GPPs, I’ll be focused on my stacks but guys like Davante Adams, Stef Diggs and Justin Jefferson could rise up my ranks as we head into Sunday.
Main Lineup Pool: Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Kadarius Toney, Hunter Renfrow
Main GPP Adds: Hollywood Brown, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Rashod Bateman
3 Max Adds: Mecole Hardman, Ja’Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, Manny Sanders
Tight End
Tight End is fairly straightforward in Week 9, with Albert Okwuegbunam commanding over 30% of the projected OWN%. Okwuegbunam is a size/speed specimen that has flashed upside before, and now will get the chance to play without Noah Fant. I think the solution here is simple, I will be playing him in cash games, but almost any Tight End is an auto-fade in tournaments at that sort of ownership projection. I will also note that he is listed as questionable for this game, so there is always the chance he doesn’t suit up on Sunday and sends the lobby into a panic.
Outside of Albert O, there are a pair of strong spend-up options in Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce is always viable, but becomes particularly interesting to me when we get him at $7,000 on DraftKings. I’m one of the fish that aren’t worried about this Chiefs offense at all, and will continue to fire up stacks in GPPs. I actually prefer Waller if spending up this week, however, due to my affinity for Derek Carr this week. I think we see Carr lean on who he trusts sans Henry Ruggs, which means Waller should see a heavy diet of targets along with the aforementioned Renfrow. We’ve seen a 19 target game from Waller already this season, while we can’t expect it, he’s one of a handful of players with that sort of ceiling at this position.
Speaking of high-upside plays, we can’t ignore Mark Andrews against the Vikings. I noted above this sets up well for a LJax aerial attack, and love using Andrews as a double-stack component with Hollywood Brown.
Mike Gesicki owns solid splits without Devante Parker in the lineup, but with Tua’s health in question, I’m focused on Dalton Schultz in the mid-tier. Schultz is top-five in the NFL in target per route at the TE position, and will benefit from the absence of Blake Jarwin in Week 9. Schultz provides leverage off the chalkier Cowboys such as Zeke Elliott and Amari Cooper, but can also be used with one of them in a Dak Prescott stack.
Main Lineup: Albert O (if active)
Main GPP: Mark Andrews
3 Max GPP: Dalton Schultz, Darren Waller, CJ Uzomah
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
