Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert
Herbert has looked outstanding through six games as a rookie. He’s thrown for 1,820 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 227 pass attempts. Herbert owns 142 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Overall, he boasts a 6.6% touchdown rate to go along with a 2.2% interception rate.
Herbert has scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his 6 games in 2020. More importantly, he’s averaging 29 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games, including a 41.48 fantasy point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s thrown for 3+ touchdowns in each of those contests, as well. Herbert has an elite option in Keenan Allen to go along with Hunter Henry and Mike Williams for a solid cast of receiving options. The biggest surprise of the offense is how well Herbert has clicked with Jalen Guyton, who is averaging 29 yards per reception while scoring 3 touchdowns from the rookie quarterback. The only major concern is when Anthony Lynn opts to slow down the offense late in games.
Herbert gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend. They’re allowing 260.7 passing yards per game in 2020. They’ve also given up 11 passing touchdowns and 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Their struggles would also be slightly worse if they weren’t helped by the wind against the Cleveland Browns last week, as well. Furthermore, Las Vegas has struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, suggesting they won’t be able to make the rookie uncomfortable this weekend. The Los Angeles Chargers are -1 point favorites in a game set at 53 points, giving them an implied team total of 27 points. Herbert continues to produce, but he’s a player that has consistently gone overlooked in DFS this season.
Running Back
James Conner
Conner has quietly been enjoying a solid season thus far. He owns 498 yards and 5 touchdowns on 110 carries. He’s also turned 23 targets into 18 receptions for 125 yards. Conner ranks sixth in the NFL in red zone carries (23), recording 68 yards and 5 touchdowns inside-the-20. He also ranks sixth in carries inside-the-5. He boasts 2 receptions for 13 yards on 4 red zone targets.
Conner leads the Pittsburgh Steelers running backs, playing 63.4% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s been a consistent option this season, scoring 14+ fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. He’s averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game in those contests. Conner has flashed plenty of upside, as well, scoring 27.9 fantasy points against the Houston Texans. Furthermore, he’s averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game at home this season. He owns 18+ touches in each of those 6 games, as well.
Conner gets an elite matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. They’re allowing a league-high 170.9 yards per game in 2020. They’ve given up 11 rushing touchdowns while allowing 5.1 yards per attempt this season, as well. In recent weeks, the Cowboys allowed Antonio Gibson and Kenyan Drake to combine for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Steelers are -13.5 point favorites in a game set at 41 points, and they own an implied team total of 27.3 points. Dallas continues to struggle with injuries, suggesting Pittsburgh will get an early lead and lean on Conner late in the games. Conner could go a bit overlooked as he’s priced only $100 more than Edmonds. The former will garner some ownership in this matchup, but I’ll be overweight to the field on him this weekend.
James Robinson
Robinson has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. He owns 481 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 carries. He’s added 27 receptions for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 targets, as well. Robinson’s only recorded 13 red zone carries, but that accounts for 72.2% of the team’s red zone carries. He also boasts 3 red zone targets, turning those into 3 receptions for 29 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Robinson’s played 64.6% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps this season. He continues to be a workhorse option, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of his seven games. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 34.7 fantasy points against the Los Angeles Chargers. This is the second time he’s scored 30+ fantasy points in a game this season. Robinson’s value comes from his receiving, as he’s seen 4+ targets in each of his last 6 games. His role in the passing offense may differ this week with Gardner Minshew injured, though.
Robinson gets a matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend. They are allowing 165.9 rushing yards per game, ranking second-last in the NFL. The Texans are giving up a league-high 5.2 yards per carry this season, allowing 9 rushing touchdowns through 7 games, as well. The Jacksonville Jaguars are +7 point underdogs in a game set at 50 points, giving them an implied team total of 21.5 points. Jacksonville may lean heavily on Robinson with Jake Luton drawing the start, although he will need to be featured as a receiver to hit value in this game. Robinson’s rushing role may diminish in the second half, although his receiving prowess makes him a solid option on this slate. His ownership could drop after he struggled against Houston earlier this season, as well.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen
Thielen has been a bit of a boom or bust option this season. He’s posted 35 receptions for 442 yards and 7 touchdowns on 53 targets through 7 games. Thielen owns a team-high 8 red zone targets, recording 8 receptions for 72 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s seen 716 air yards with a 13.5 aDOT, boasting 42.9% of the Minnesota Vikings air yards this season.
Thielen has played a team-high 91.9% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps this season. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns while ranking second in receiving yards. Thielen boasts 28.2% of Minnesota’s receptions, 27% of receiving yards, and 58.3% of receiving touchdowns on a 29.2% target share. He’s posted single-digit fantasy points in two of his seven games. With that being said, he’s also posted 29+ fantasy points in 3 of those games, including 34 fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers.
Thielen gets a matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing 248.4 passing yards per game. They’re giving up 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt, as well. Most importantly, Detroit has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season. Thielen has played the majority of his snaps as Minnesota’s right outside receiver, suggesting he’ll play the majority of his snaps against Jeffrey Okudah. The latter has struggled as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) fourth-worst cornerback this season. He’s been targeted on 19% of his routes covered, allowing a 68% catch rate. He’s also giving up 1.83 yards per route covered, making Thielen an elite option. Furthermore, Thielen is a fixture in the red zone, and the Vikings are -4 point favorites in a game set at 52 points. They own an implied team total of 28 points, adding to Thielen’s upside on this slate.
DeVante Parker
Parker is another boom or bust option. He owns 30 receptions for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 targets this season. Parker’s only seen two red zone targets, catching both for five yards and two touchdowns. He owns 391 air yards with a 9.3 aDOT this season, recording 23.8% of Miami’s air yards.
Parker leads the Dolphins receivers, playing 74.8% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s Miami’s top receiving option, leading the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He boasts 19.7% of Miami’s receptions, 22.4% of receiving yards, and 27.3% of receiving touchdowns on a 19.2% target share. He only saw two targets in Tua Tagovailoa’s first start of the season. That game was a blowout win against the Los Angeles Rams, though, and I’m expecting different results as the season progresses.
Parker will face off against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. They’re allowing 247.3 passing yards per game and 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. Arizona has also given up 12 passing touchdowns this season. Parker is tentatively expected to play the majority of his snaps against Dre Kirkpatrick this weekend. He has graded out as PFF’s second-worst cornerback this season. He’s allowing a 76% catch rate while being targeted on 20% of his routes covered. He’s also giving up 1.70 yards per route covered. The Dolphins are +4.5 point underdogs in a game set at 48.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 22 points. Parker and company will benefit from an injury to Myles Gaskin, as Miami will need to focus more on their passing attack in this game.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki
Gesicki was expected to break out this season, but that hasn’t been the case. He’s posted 19 receptions for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 targets through 7 games. Gesicki’s seen a team-high 8 red zone targets, although he’s recorded only 2 receptions for 23 yards and 2 touchdowns on them. He owns 23.3% of the Miami Dolphins’ air yards, recording 384 air yards with a 12 aDOT this season.
Gesicki’s played only 58% of Miami’s offensive snaps in 2020. While it leads the Dolphins tight ends, it’s surprisingly low for a player that was expected to be a focal point of the offense. He essentially split snaps in the slot with Isaiah Ford, who played 51% of Miami’s offensive snaps this season. Ford was traded to the New England Patriots last week, allowing Gesicki to find more snaps in the slot this weekend. His target share will be a bit of an unknown after seeing only two targets in a blowout win against the Los Angeles Rams in Tua Tagovailoa’s first start.
Gesicki gets an interesting matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are giving up 247.3 passing yards per game to go along with 12 passing touchdowns this season. They’ve also allowed 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt through 7 games. The Dolphins are +4.5 point underdogs in a game set at 48.5 points. They own an implied team total of only 22 points, although the game script bodes well for their receivers. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the offense, but Gesicki is an extremely talented player that will benefit from finding more snaps, specifically in the slot.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
