Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has seen mixed results throughout the 2020 season. He owns 1,392 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on 198 pass attempts through 7 games. Mayfield doesn’t boast much rushing potential, but he owns a career-high 7.6% touchdown rate this season. His interception rate also dipped from 3.9% in 2019 to 3.5% this season.
Mayfield struggled a bit in terms of fantasy in his first few games, scoring fewer than 18 fantasy points in each of his first 6 games. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 30.78 fantasy points against the Cincinnati Bengals. He generally isn’t seeing a ton of pass attempts in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, which is running-based, although it has increased his efficiency significantly. Mayfield will be without Odell Beckham Jr., who tore his ACL on the first drive of his last game. Austin Hooper is also expected to miss this game, although Mayfield flashed chemistry with Rashard Higgins and Harrison Bryant, who played major roles in the offense last weekend.
Mayfield gets an elite matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. They’re allowing 283.8 passing yards per game in 2020 while giving up 11 passing touchdowns. Las Vegas is also allowing 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Mayfield has struggled against some of the top pass defenses in the NFL this season. He has also struggled when pressured. Similarly to last week, he will now face off against a weak secondary on a team that struggles to get pressure. The Cleveland Browns are -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 52.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 27.5 points. Mayfield comes with risk because of Cleveland’s reliance on the run, but he comes with elite upside if he consistently finds the end zone again.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor hasn’t been the elite rookie many were expecting, but he has found some success. He owns 367 yards and 3 touchdowns on 89 carries this season. He’s also turned 17 targets into 16 receptions for 162 yards. Taylor currently ranks 11th in the league in red zone carries (18). He posted 60 yards and 3 touchdowns on those carries. He’s only seen two red zone targets, though, giving way to Nyheim Hines as the pass-catching back inside-the-20.
Taylor leads the Indianapolis Colts running backs, playing 50.3% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s been the early-down option with Hines coming in on passing downs. Taylor has been getting better as the season progresses, as well, posting 5.0 and 4.8 yards per carry over his last 2 games after recording 2.4 and 3.9 yards per carry in his first 2 career games. He’s also recorded 41.2% of his targets in his last 2 games, suggesting he’s getting more involved in the passing game.
Taylor gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions this weekend. They’re allowing 131.8 rushing yards per game while giving up 9 rushing touchdowns through 6 games in 2020. They’re also allowing 4.5 yards per carry this season. Furthermore, Indianapolis features the second biggest offensive/defensive line advantage in the run game this week, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Colts are currently -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 50 points. They feature an implied team total of 26.3 points. The Colts could be running out the clock late in the game, giving Taylor extra opportunities for fantasy points. They’ve been playing from behind in recent weeks, and Taylor could find more carries than he’s seen over his last couple of games this week.
JaMychal Hasty
Hasty has only seen limited snaps this season. He’s been extremely efficient, though, turning 20 carries into 103 yards. Hasty has posted 2 receptions for 25 yards on only 3 targets. Hasty has yet to record any touches in the red zone, although he could find more opportunities as the San Francisco 49ers continue to deal with injuries.
Hasty has only played 8% of the offensive snaps this season. With that being said, he out-snapped Jerrick McKinnon after Jeff Wilson suffered an injury last week. Wilson is expected to be placed on IR in the coming days, while Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman have already been placed on IR this season. In only 30 offensive snaps over the last 2 weeks, Hasty posted 110 yards on 19 touches. He’ll see an expanded role, likely splitting snaps with McKinnon this weekend.
Hasty get an interesting matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who are allowing 110.5 rushing yards per game this season. Seattle is allowing 4.1 yards per carry in 2020, while also giving up 7 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. San Francisco is currently a +3 point underdog in a game set at 53 points, and they boast an implied team total of 25 points. The Seahawks feature one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, causing more ownership to fall on the 49ers passing attack. Hasty is a cheap, high upside option, though. San Francisco could try to slow the game down with their rushing attack, and Hasty gives you a piece of one of the best games on the slate at low ownership.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp
Kupp has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He’s posted 37 receptions for 417 yards and 2 touchdowns on 51 targets. Kupp has turned 4 red zone targets into 1 reception for 16 yards and 1 touchdown. He does rank second on the team in red zone targets, though. Kupp’s seen 342 air yards with a 6.7 aDOT in 2020. Overall, he’s recorded 21.9% of Los Angeles’ air yards.
Kupp has played 86.5% of the Los Angeles Rams offensive snaps this season. He leads Los Angeles in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while ranking third in receiving touchdowns. Overall, he’s turned a 23.8% target share into 24.5% of the team’s receptions, 23.3% of receiving yards, and 16.7% of receiving touchdowns. Kupp’s been a relatively consistent option, scoring double-digit fantasy points in 5 of his 7 games in 2020. He also flashed upside in his best matchup of the season, scoring 28.7 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills.
Kupp gets a matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are allowing 236 passing yards per game this season. They’re also giving up 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt while holding their opponents to only 7 passing touchdowns. With that being said, Kupp gets one of the best matchups on the slate, as Nik Needham has been one of the worst slot corners in the NFL this season. He currently ranks as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Kupp has one of the biggest advantages on the slate. The Rams are -4 point favorites in a game set at 46 points. They boast an implied team total of 25 points. Miami’s struggles against the run will likely shift focus to the LA running backs over their receivers. This is a matchup Kupp can find success in, though, and he’s a player with plenty of upside for a reasonable price tag.
A.J. Brown
Brown’s been dealing with injuries throughout the 2020 season, playing in only four games. He’s posted 23 receptions for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns on 32 targets this season. Brown ranks second on the team in red zone targets, turning 5 into 4 receptions for 45 yards and 3 touchdowns. He boasts 336 air yards to go along with a 10.5 aDOT. He’s also seen 22.3% of Tennessee’s air yards in limited games this season.
Brown’s only played 55% of the Tennessee Titan’s offensive snaps in 2020. He’s played 70% or more of the offensive snaps when healthy, though, including 93% of the snaps last week. Brown struggled the first game of the season but has posted 21+ fantasy points in each of his 3 games since returning from injury. In those games, he’s averaging 6 receptions for 97.7 yards and 1.3 touchdowns (24.8 fantasy points) on 8 targets per game.
Brown gets a plus matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals are allowing 261.4 passing yards per game while giving up 15 passing touchdowns in 2020. They are also allowing 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Brown is expected to play the majority of his snaps against Darius Phillips, who has been a below-average option in the Bengals secondary this season. The Titans are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 53.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 29.5 points. Brown will need to do damage early in this game, but he makes a solid GPP option with the majority of ownership going to Derrick Henry this week.
Tight End
Harrison Bryant
Bryant hasn’t been a featured option for the Cleveland Browns this season, but he’s still posted 12 receptions for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 targets. He’s converted his 3 red zone targets into 3 receptions for 12 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Bryant has quietly played 53.9% of the offensive snaps for Cleveland this season. He drew the start and played 77% of the snaps last week with Austin Hooper out, though. In that game, he posted 4 receptions for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 targets. Hooper hasn’t been ruled out this week, but it’s somewhat unlikely he’ll play with the Browns bye coming next week.
Bryant gets a great matchup against a struggling Las Vegas Raiders defense. They’re giving up 283.8 passing yards per game to go along with 11 passing touchdowns this season. They’re also allowing 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. As mentioned above, the Browns have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate in a game that’s expected to stay relatively close. Bryant’s price is up from last week, but it’s still a bit too cheap if Hooper is out.
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