What’s up everyone! This is my fourth season breaking down every game of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited that football is back. If you are interested in my core plays plus final thoughts cheat sheet for every main slate, you can browse our packages here. With that being said, let’s get to the analysis!
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Vegas Total: 57
Outlook: This massive 57 O/U presents us arguably the juiciest fantasy game on the slate, but the entire slate, and game, was turned upside down on Friday when we learned that Aaron Jones is a GTD. I really liked the Packers stack of Rodgers/Jones/Adams in tournaments before this news, and Jones was arguably the top running back play on the slate in a soft matchup vs this Houston run defense. Adams has over 30% of the Packers targets in his two real games this season, which is insane to think about. This is one of the best matchups he will see all season and he is completely viable in all formats on both sites. This Jones news makes it tough to dissect, so be sure to read my Final Thoughts sheet on Saturday night for my updated thoughts on this team.
While the Packers are harder to break down, this is still a glorious spot for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. Averaging over 30 fantasy points per game sans Bill O’Brien — Watson is primed to crush a Green Bay defense that is bottom-five in QB pressures this season. I think this game can easily hit the over this these two QB’s slinging it vs soft defenses, and am now planning on Watson-Cooks-Adams to be my main tournament build in 3 max contests. I’m a Will Fuller truther, but his matchup with Jaire Alexander is enough for me to pivot to Cooks for a cheaper price tag. Cooks still has a solid 26% share of the teams Air Yards.
David Johnson is another quality tournament play, seeing a top-five usage rate at his position in the entire league. He doesn’t need to be his old self at this price tag with those kinds of touches, and if he falls in the end zone he could really smash his price tag at low-ownership in an expected shootout.
Jordan Akins is questionable again, if he’s out we can look at/add-in Darren Fells to our Watson stack.
Cash Game Pool: Davante Adams, Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, Darren Fells
GPP Pool: Aaron Jones/GB RB?, David Johnson
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Total: 50.5
Outlook: Another example of why I’ve been posting these breakdowns later in the week, this game was hit with the injury bug on Friday as well with Austin Hooper and Joe Mixon both ruled out. I love that this total is set at 50, while I don’t love the game stack, I do think there are a number of standalone plays for both cash games and GPPs.
Starting with the Browns, Kareem Hunt will be the center of the offense this week against a banged up Bengals defense. Still down two key lineman and now William Jackson, Hunt should have a field day against the team that’s allowed the third-most rushing yards in the NFL. I don’t have any interest in Baker Mayfield given how he has played, but he does excel when passing from a clean pocket and I don’t anticipate Cincy being able to generate much pressure on him on Sunday. Odell Beckham is the obvious ceiling one-off here, but with Hooper out we can consider David Njoku on DK in a potential trade showcase game.
Joe Burrow is currently second in the NFL in pass attempts, and I only see that increasing this week with Mixon out. He is extremely cheap on DK, and it’s worth noting the Browns have coughed up the fifth-most passing yards allowed this season. Gio Bernard has averaged nearly 90 yards per game in Mixon’s absence the last few seasons, he is no longer young, but his role in the passing game will keep him in play as a pure punt in cash games.
If stacking Burrow, I prefer Tyler Boyd in the slot to Tee Higgins or AJ Green, but all three should come in as low-owned options at their price tags.
Cash Game Pool: Kareem Hunt, Joe Burrow (DK only), Gio Bernard
GPP Pool: Tee Higgins, Odell Beckham, AJ Green, CLE Tight Ends?
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: Yet another game riddled with injuries — both Michael Thomas and Manny Sanders were ruled out for the Saints on Friday. I don’t think this game as quite the stackability of HOU/GB, SEA/ARZ or DET/ATL but we should see a ton of points with the total set at 51. My only real concern is the pace, the Panthers will play fast on offense but I could see the Saints going even more run-heavy than usual down their top two pass catchers. Alvin Kamara will be locked into 100% of my lineups with these two out, as it heightens his pass-catching upside even further, The Panthers are bottom-three in fantasy points allowed to running backs, while he can get trolled on the goal line, the spot is too good for me to consider fading him. I expect Tre’Quan Smith to be the top option in the passing game, and think both he and Jared Cook are viable cash game punts.
I think Teddy Bridgewater could get revenge on his old team this Sunday with the Panthers winning, but he isn’t at the top of my GPP list despite a cheap price tag. We will get one more bell cow Mike Davis game, and I love him as a tournament pivot. He’s locked into a heavy passing game workload as well as the goal line carries, and should go overlooked due to a rough game against the Bears last week. Robby Anderson and DJ Moore are tied in opportunity rating this season, so I would simply take the lower-owned option weekly, which seems to be Moore more often than not.
Cash Game Pool: Alvin Kamara, Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook
GPP Pool: Latavius Murray, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Mike Davis
Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 55
Outlook: This is one of the games I prefer to the Saints/Panthers contest, and I think we will see more than 55 points scored in ATL on Sunday. I loved the spot for the Lions offense last week, but they had so much success running the ball against the Jaguars that Stafford’s arm wasn’t needed. I trust the Falcons to put up points more than I do the Jags, and with Julio back, I think the wheels are up for a legit shootout in Week 7. Atlanta is still allowing the most fantasy points to QB’s, and have given up the most touchdowns through the air as well. This is the perfect example of recency bias, with Staff being chalk on FD last weekend but projecting for low-ownership this week after a dud performance, You can’t get a better matchup than this, and I will be stacking him with Kenny Golladay this week.
Golladay himself is arguably my favorite play on the main slate. He has been crushing this season without scoring a bunch of TDs or seeing a ceiling-level game, and that can change this week. The matchup is exceptional, and his lowest DK point total this season is 16…let that sink in. I will be forcing him into my builds across both sites.
The Falcons have actually been stingy vs the run, but once again struggled to defend pass catching backs. This profiles as a D’Andre Swift game more so than Adrian Peterson, and you can add him to your tournament pool in the mid-range.
The Falcons are extremely easy to dissect, as everything runs through Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Similar to the Panthers, I simply take the lower-owned option between Jones and Ridley more often than not, and I prefer Staff to Ryan as a QB in this game.
Toddy Gurley is not someone I roster in DFS due to his lack of pass catching upside, but you could consider him as a tournament option on FanDuel against one of the softest run-defenses in the league in an expected shootout.
Cash Game Pool: Kenny Golladay
GPP Pool: Matt Stafford, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, D’Andre Swift
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Total: 50.5
Outlook: This game sports a 50 point total, but I can’t see how I’m as interested in it as other 50+ total games on this slate. The Titans have struggled mightily to generate pressure this season — see Deshaun Watson last week — which sets up well for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense. The problem with that being that Diontae Johnson is back this week, and they now have four legitimate WR’s that will see the field. I don’t like to guess in DFS when I only make 4-5 teams weekly, so I’m not sure I end up on anyone here. I expected Diontae Johnson to be chalky earlier this week, but with the likes of Tre’Quan Smith and Gabriel Davis now cheaper that ownership has been pushed elsewhere. If I were to roster one Steelers player it would likely be Chase Claypool given how good he’s looked, but I should probably consider James Conner more heavily in a close spread.
I don’t go out of my way to play anyone against this Steelers defense, but we have to talk about Derrick Henry. This man is just unreal when he steps on the field, and it’s worth remembering that the Steelers are now down LB Devin Bush. Henry vs Zeke has a pivot in the upper-tier and I honestly think I lean Henry given the state of Dallas’ offensive line.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Derrick Henry, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson (DK)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: The most interesting part of this game is that the Washington Football Team is only one point underdogs…which doesn’t bode well when it comes to DFS. That being said, there are some viable plays here, particularly from that Washington side of the ball. I love what Scott Turner is able to do with this offense despite being sabotaged by Kyle Allen and a bad offensive line. Terry McLaurin was force-fed over 10 targets in last weeks game, and managed 14 DK points despite being blanketed by James Bradberry. This is McLaurin’s best matchup of the season, and he is playable in all formats on DraftKings. I’m not as enthused with Allen as a tournament play given some of the QB prices this week, but won’t be shocked if he has a decent game in this matchup. I will always bet on the talent of Antonio Gibson, and will continue to keep him in my GPP pool while he is below $6K.
On the Dallas side, it’s really tough for me to trust any of these weapons with Dak Prescott on IR. Not only is Dalton a downgrade for the offense, but the offensive line is extremely banged up with Zack Martin now out as well. The Washington front should have a field day, and it’s going to render all Cowboys players as GPP-only options for me.
I do think Elliott is an exciting leverage play in tournaments, he has upside in the passing game and will be sub-10% owned due to the presence of guys like Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and potentially Aaron Jones.
Cash Game Pool: Terry McLaurin
GPP Pool: Zeke Elliott, Logan Thomas, Dalton Schultz, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Antonio Gibson
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: I actually really like this game, and am considering it for my main GPP build that I use in single entry contests. I typically like to take a chalkier stack and surround it with a few low-owned pieces, but I feel like this game is going so overlooked that I can’t ignore it. This Bills defense is really, really banged up and there’s a chance that Tre White doesn’t play in addition to some of their other defensive injuries. Sam Darnold is expect to be back, and Vegas does expect them to be able to put up some points in this contest. Jamison Crowder is the clear run-back for a Bills stack given his target projection and matchup in the slot. That being said, he is listed as questionable, and we may need to update that thought on Sunday if he’s ruled out.
Few players on any slate have as much upside as Josh Allen, and coming off two subpar games is the exact time to jump on him in tournaments. He posted 30+ fantasy points vs this defense in Week 1, and is priced close enough to Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson that he will be a fraction of the ownership, despite a similar ceiling. John Brown is out again for the Bills, which solidifies Stefon Diggs as my favorite stacking partner with Allen. He is also a viable one-off pivot, as well as Gabriel Davis who has double-digit targets with Brown out of the lineup this season.
I will be fading the run games in this one, but it is a good matchup on the ground for Devin Singletary. I think Zack Moss’ role will continue to spike back up, so roster Singletary now if you want to before it becomes a true timeshare.
Cash Game Pool: Gabriel Davis (DK only)
GPP Pool: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Jamison Crowder
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: There is expected to be some snow for this game, but the lack of wind makes it less of a concern. I have no players listed in my cash game pool from this game, but I could see both Travis Kelce (both sites) and Patrick Mahomes (DK) picking up ownership. This Broncos defense is still banged up, and the Chiefs team stack is playable each and every week in DFS tournaments. The best way to attack this team this week, in my opinion, is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH will be extremely low-owned after a monster performance on Tuesday due to the presence of Le’Veon Bell, but it’s unclear how much Bell will even play. I personally doubt we see him for more than a few snaps, which hurts someone like Darrel Williams much more than Edwards-Helaire. CEH is still going to be the lead back on this team, and we have a cold game where the Chiefs are favored by a good margin.
I have no interest in the Broncos on what is now a 12 game slate, and am looking at a KC stack only in this game.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Total: 49
Outlook: The Chargers are extremely tough to analyze for me because I despise Anthony Lynn and his conservative coaching tendencies, but man does #AirHerbert look good. Imagine having this kid on your team and not going out and letting him rip it as much as he wants, couldn’t be me! That being said, Herbert has been balling in the toughest of matchups. This is the best matchup he’s seen thus far, the Jags allow incredible efficiency to offenses and if they can stay in the game at all, he can provide both a floor and ceiling at his price.
The biggest key to this game will be the injury status of Justin Jackson, if reports come out that he will be limited or even out, Joshua Kelley would become one of the top GPP plays on the main slate.
Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry can both be used as one-offs or in stacks with Herbert against this defense. Allen has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL since Herbert took over, and he still feels too cheap on a full-PPR site like DK. Henry falls under the “too cheap” category on both sites…
I don’t love any Jags player in this matchup, but DJ Chark is the clear run-back in a Chargers stack.
Cash Game Pool: Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry
GPP Pool: Justin Jackson, Josh Kelley, Justin Herbert, DJ Chark
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: This might be the most boring game on the entire main slate, which would be why it sports a slate-low 44 O/U. I don’t really want to trust Jimmy G heading into Foxboro against the defense giving up the fifth-least fantasy points to QB’s…revenge be damned. Raheem Mostert is back on IR, and I think we could see a mixture of both Jerick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty for Kyle Shanahan. More importantly, we will see Deebo Samuel mix in as an extension of the run game — every single one of Samuel’s Week 6 touches came in the backfield or on quick screen passes. Samuel is cheap enough for me to consider in all formats on a full-PPR site like DK. George Kittle needs no introduction and is a great tournament play every slate, I just don’t love the matchup. New England has allowed just 15 catches to tight ends in 2020 and they are notorious for erasing tight ends from games.
Cam Newton has somehow been serviceable for fantasy, and it’s coming entirely through his points on the ground. He is struggling mightily with this egregious Pats supporting cast, and even against a depleted defense I won’t be targeting him in DFS. If you MME, his upside with his legs puts him firmly in play, I just don’t play enough teams personally to get there.
Cash Game Pool: Deebo Samuel
GPP Pool: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Cam Newton
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (LATE NIGHT HAMMER!)
Vegas Total: 56
Outlook: Analysis will be posted Saturday…game stack it up!
Cash Game Pool: Russ Wilson, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk
GPP Pool: DeAndre Hopkins
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
