Welcome guys and girls to the seventh game-by-game breakdown of the season! This week, I decided to switch up my format and test a new one out, let me know which format you prefer, as I’m always looking to improve my content! Let’s get into the slate…
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 23, Lions 21
Outlook: The spread on this game surprises me a bit, and I’m not sure if the Lions can keep within two points coming off a short week and a hard fought loss to the Packers, even at home. That reason, mixed with how good this Vikings defensive unit has been this season, has me interested in just one Detroit player in DFS this weekend. The Vikings are clearly the side we want exposure to in this game, but even then, none are screaming “must roster!”
Kirk Cousins isn’t in a clear funnel spot like he has been the last few weeks, but the Vikings seem to have figured out how to properly balance running and passing the football and the Lions have been unable to generate pressure on opposing Quarterbacks this season, meaning Cousins should have time to pick out open receivers when he does drop back to pass. There are enough QB’s on this slate in better spots that I probably won’t end up with any Cousins this week, but if you are interested in him I won’t talk you off of him.
The biggest spot in this game for me is Dalvin Cook, who could come in a bit under-owned after a “down” game in Week 6 and with Saquon Barkley in a matchup against the Cardinals also in the top-tier of pricing. The Lions were absolutely crushed on the ground by Green Bay last week, and this is a much more favorable matchup than Cook saw last week against the Eagles elite front. We already know he’s going to get touches, and we shouldn’t expect to see as much Mattison this week — I don’t anticipate the Vikings being up by 20 points in this game. Mainly I’m looking to play the ownership game here with Cook, I’m listing him as a cash game option because he is one based off volume alone, but it’s clear more people will play Barkley making him an exceptional pivot in GPPs. A lot of people are talking up Kerryon Johnson this week due to his low price of $5,100 on DraftKings. It’s true that he has been unlocked usage-wise since CJ Anderson was sent packing, but this is also about as tough of a matchup as you can get. He is certainly in play at that low of a price tag, but in nothing more than tournaments for me.
Lastly, I definitely think you can take a shot on one of Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs — the Lions have served up big games to both inside and outside receivers in 2019. Diggs obviously went nuclear last week, but Thielen has been the much better fantasy receiver for the bulk of the season and he feels much safer if picking one of them as a one-off.
Cash Game Options: Dalvin Cook
GPP Options: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kerryon Johnson
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Jags 24, Bengals 20
Outlook: I really want to like this game for tournaments, because I think the Jaguars stack makes a ton of sense, but I’m having issues figuring out who I would want to run it back with, and I’m not sure this Bengals offensive line can hold up against the Jaguars defensive front. It seems funny to me that Gardner Minshew got some attention in cash games last week against a good Saints defense, but now he gets a dream matchup against Cincinnati and people will avoid him because of the down game last week. The Bengals have already been shredded by opposing Quarterbacks this season, and this week they will be without their two top corners — Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson. I love Minshew in tournaments this weekend, and I think this is a matchup in which we could see a ceiling-type output from him.
The clear play from this game is going to be Leonard Fournette in both cash games and GPPs, priced at $7,000 on DraftKings, he arguably the top Running Back play on the slate. We have used the volume over efficiency argument with Fournette for the last few weeks, but that probably won’t even come into play this week with how bad the Bengals have been defensively. This is Fournette’s best matchup of the season thus far, and he still is not priced appropriately when factoring in his massive role in this offense.
If I’m looking to stack up Minshew in GPPs, it has to be with DJ Chark who is in a prime bounce-back spot after being deleted by Marshon Lattimore in Week 6. Chark remains top-ten in the NFL in air yards, and will benefit greatly from the two corners missing in this Bengals secondary.
I really think Dalton will struggle this week if the Jaguars are getting pressure like they have been, but if I’m going to run a Jaguars onslaught in tournaments I will need someone on the other side and it will probably end up being Tyler Boyd over Auden Tate. I didn’t think Marlon Humphrey would line up with Boyd at all last week, but I guess that’s what happens when he’s the only weapon to truly fear on this offense right now. We shouldn’t see AJ Bouye in the slot, and scheming quick passes to Boyd would be a good move for the Bengals with Dalton often under pressure.
Cash Game Options: Leonard Fournette
GPP Options: DJ Chark, Gardner Minshew
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: 49ers 25, Redskins 15
Outlook: This is a tough game for me to get a read on, because I expect the 49ers to absolutely smash the Redskins out of the building. It’s no secret that Kyle Shanahan hates the Washington Redskins and their owner, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them keep their foot on the gas here and run up the score. The problem is that they could score so fast/easily early on that it renders some fantasy plays useless and makes the whole game better suited for tournaments.
Tevin Coleman has dominated the work out of the backfield since returning from injury, and he is my favorite overall play in this game. It seems like Josh Jacobs and Kerryon Johnson are getting the most buzz in the mid-tier at Running Back, making Coleman a top pivot.
I do have interest in Dante Pettis at his price, he gets the best overall matchup in the slot against this Redskins secondary, and got up over 70% of the snaps in Week 6. He’s super cheap, but the game-script could go a lot of ways here so I probably won’t include him in my cash game pool unless I really need the salary. George Kittle silenced injury concerns last week, and he is a great GPP play this week with ownership set to be concentrated on Hunter Henry and Evan Enrgam.
Cash Game Options: none (for now)
GPP Options: Dante Pettis, Tevin Coleman, George Kittle
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Green Bay 26, Raiders 20.5
Outlook: On the surface, this profiles as a much better real-life game than a fantasy game, but we may be forced into options here due to the large amount of injuries in the Packers receiving corps. All of Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling haven’t practiced this week, even on Friday, which should present us with a few value options that we need to consider in all formats. Allen Lazard had the big game on Monday night after it’s rumored that Rodgers demanded he get in the game in the 4th quarter, and he is set to be the highest-owned option should all three of Adams/MVS/Allison misses this game. Jake Kumerow is another player that Rodgers has touted in the past, and he ran the most routes of the next in line receivers on Monday night. I have interest in both — but will reserve my final judgement for once we know who all is in/out for this team.
After that, the game becomes pretty murky. Aaron Rodgers has been better fantasy-wise over the last few weeks, and this is a great matchup, but do we really want to consider him in DFS if his top three receivers are out? I don’t think so. This could set up as a game where the Packers gameplan around the run game with so many questions in the passing game, but we have no clue who will get the work given Matt LaFleur’s need to involve both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams equally.
The Raiders are set up to do well in this game coming off a bye while the Packers are on a short week, but with Trent Brown looking unlikely to play, I have a hard time imagining them staying close in this game. The best way to beat the Packers has been on the ground, but Josh Jacobs has been extremely game-script dependent and I worry about that here. I will likely be avoiding this game as a whole outside of the value Packers receivers.
DAVANTE ADAMS OUT, MVS/ALLISON CURRENTLY QUESTIONABLE
Cash Game Options: Allen Lazard
GPP Options: Jake Kumerow, Darren Waller (if active)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Colts 24, Texans 23
Outlook: The 47 O/U here is good for DFS, and I do think that this game a chance to turn into a shootout should things break the right way. This Colts defense will be much healthier coming out of their bye week, and while I’m not in love with the matchup, I simply can’t ignore Deshaun Watson in tournaments due to his upside. If the Texans put up points here, the Colts will be forced into abandoning the run-first approach they have maintained sans Andrew Luck, and with Watson’s ability to run the ball, especially in the red zone, a ceiling game is in play once again this week. I actually think Jacoby Brissett is a good play at his price for those exact reasons, this is a clear pass-funnel Texans defense and Frank Reich is certainly smart enough to exploit just that.
I don’t want to spend much time deciphering with of Carlos Hyde or Duke Johnson will score, but I do think Marlon Mack is a viable tournament play. If this game stays close, he will see his 20+ touches regardless and he has as much touchdown equity as anyone else on the Colts roster.
Everyone in the world has been talking about TY Hilton’s splits against the Colts this week, to the point that it’s getting annoying. Hilton is an amazing DFS play this weekend because he is under $6K on DraftKings, it’s a pass-funnel spot, and he is 10th in the NFL in red zone targets. Keep in mind that both Jonathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are dealing with injuries in the Houston secondary as well. He will surely be chalky on DK and is one of the best receiver plays on the slate. The Colts defense schemes to prevent big plays, which hurts Will Fuller’s upside a tick, but if you’re going to run a Brissett-Hilton stack or a Watson stack in tournaments, you’re going to need one of Fuller or Hopkins. I slightly lean Hopkins again this week, who people should be off after he “let down” as chalk in Week 6.
Cash Game Options: TY Hilton
GPP Options: Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Rams 29, Falcons 26
Outlook: This is my favorite overall game of the week, and I think it’s the best overall game-stack spot as well in tournaments, I can only hope that people avoid the Rams offense because of how bad it has been recently. It’s no secret that Jared Goff has been bad this season, but the offensive line is at fault just as much as he is. The Rams are allowing pressure at a top-three rate in football, but that shouldn’t come into play as much this week with the Falcons ranking dead-last in the NFL in sacks, and bottom-eight in QB pressures.
It looks like Todd Gurley will be back for this game, but if I’m stacking the Rams I’m going to use Goff and focus on his pass catchers. The entire Rams offense is in a bounce-back spot this week against the number one defense we have attacked weekly in DFS over the last month. I have attacked the Bengals and the Cardinals in the slot repeatedly this season — if you think they’re bad — wait until you read that the Falcons have coughed up nine scores to slot receivers this season. Kupp still leads the league in targets, and is my favorite overall receiver on the entire main slate. I will continue to buy low on Robert Woods who I have tagged as a tournament play, as well as Brandin Cooks. Both are too cheap, and make sense in a game stack with either Jared Goff or Matt Ryan as your Quarterback.
Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is neck-and-neck with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in cash games for me this week, I came onto Ryan hard last weekend and ended up with him in cash games on DK, and he didn’t disappoint with another monster games — 356 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s still topped 300 yards in every game this season, and they are throwing the ball so much that I don’t see that stopping in this matchup. Yes, the Rams gained Jalen Ramsey, but they still lost Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters in the process.
Devonta Freeman continues to be under-priced across the industry, and he belongs aside Tevin Coleman in the tournament pool this weekend. The problem here is, who do we want to stack with Matt Ryan? The obvious answer for me is Austin Hooper, who continues to be one of the best fantasy Tight Ends in all of football. I have written for two years how this Rams defense schemes targets to the middle of the field which bodes well for TE’s, and it wouldn’t shock me to see another big game from Hooper in Week 7. I don’t know what to make of Jalen Ramsey covering Julio Jones, it’s not going to keep me off of Julio in tournaments but it does open up Calvin Ridley in cash games, who is too cheap for the expected shootout environment of this game.
Stack, Stack, Stack.
Cash Game Options: Matt Ryan, Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
GPP Options: Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Jared Goff, Mo Sanu
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bills 28.5, Dolphins 12
Outlook: This is a clear blowup spot for the Bills who have had over a week to prepare for this game as they are coming off their bye week. I can confidently say that I’m not interested in any Dolphins players against this Bills defense, and it’s going to become increasingly harder to project what they do on a week-to-week basis the later we get into the season as they shift more into evaluation mode. For example, see Mark Walton last week.
The game-script is a definite concern for Buffalo who certainly could have a big defensive day against Ryan Fitzpatrick as well, which makes this game better for cash games overall for me. The Bills have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and Josh Allen routinely has high-upside in DFS given his ability to run the football. The Dolphins have pretty much zero pass rush to even think about, so he should have time to pick out open receivers which bodes well for both John Brown and Cole Beasley. Brown leads the team in air yards by a wide margin, and his 13.6 aDOT correlates well with Allen’s strength of throwing the ball deep. Beasley gets an elite matchup in the slot where the Dolphins are just behind the Cardinals with 5 touchdowns allowed there this season. I think Allen is one of the top QB plays on this slate and both Beasley and Brown are viable stacks with him in cash games.
Cash Game Options: Josh Allen, John Brown, Cole Beasley
GPP Options: All the above
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Giants 27, Cardinals 24
Outlook: This is another great fantasy game, similar to LAR/ATL, due to how fast the Cardinals play. I do expect their defense to improve with Patrick Peterson back, but one guy simply can’t make *that* much difference to turn them around drastically. This is a good buy-low spot for Daniel Jones, who has rushing upside and is at home against the defense that we have attacked pretty much every week of the season thus far.
Kyler Murray has shown us he does, in fact, have a fantasy ceiling all while maintaining a remarkably high floor for a rookie Quarterback. I typically would tag him as a cash game play, but with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Matt Ryan present on the slate he is better suited for tournaments.
The backfields are my main focus of this game, both Saquon Barkley and David Johnson are in exceptional spots. Barkley is the most expensive Running Back on the slate, but he should be ready to handle a full workload after the Giants decided to hold him out of their game last Thursday against the Patriots. The Cardinals have allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL this season, and this is the softest possible matchup for Barkley to make his return in. I think he is playable in all formats and will likely be a priority in cash games for me come Sunday. As for Johnson, the back scare last week still resulted in 18 touches, and the Giants are currently bottom-five against pass-catching running backs allowing over 50 yards per game to opposing backs. I don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury to effectively get DJ the ball in the red zone, which knocks him down a peg, but he is a great play in GPPs nonetheless.
Wrapping up with the pass catchers, I would probably run Kyler naked or in a stack with DJ before I chose Larry Fitzgerald, because I’m not sure how big of a role Christian Kirk will play in his first game back. Evan Engram is the obvious play for the Giants against the historically bad Cardinals defense, and the return of Pat Pete should only boost the matchup for Engram further as he shuts down the outside. Hunter Henry is sorely mis-priced on both sites this week, but I would be lying if I didn’t say that Engram was the best overall play at his position.
Cash Game Options: Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram
GPP Options: David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Daniel Jones
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Titans 21.5, Chargers 19.5
Outlook: This is definitely the clunker of the afternoon games, and it’s difficult to get excited about any plays here for DFS purposes. The Chargers have been derailed by both injuries and poor coaching this season, turning one of the trendy preseason Super Bowl picks into a disappointing disaster. That being said, star receiver Keenan Allen was vocal on Twitter and to the media about the offense, so I’m wondering they come out of fire this week and at least put up a decent performance.
My top play in this game is Hunter Henry, and he will be no secret priced at only $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel coming off a 100 yard-2 touchdown game on Sunday Night Football last week. The one true place you can attack this Titans defense has been with Tight Ends, and it’s frustrating that Henry is priced like he…almost forcing us onto him in cash games. I would say that both Engram and Hooper have higher upside given their game environments, but I can’t ignore Henry’s price and will probably end up locking onto him.
I also like getting some shares of Derrick Henry, who will go under-owned per usual. I noted how the Broncos potential scheme change had helped their run-defense, and that held true with how they handled Henry a week ago. The good news is that even in negative game-script, Henry dominated the snaps over Dion Lewis and this matchup is much better as the Chargers are much more giving on the ground. With Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB, this could provide incentive to focus on the run game even more heavily this weekend.
Cash Game Plays: Hunter Henry
GPP Plays: Derrick Henry
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bears 21, Saints 17.5
Analysis will be posted shortly…REALLY thinking about the Kamara news.
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Hawks 26, Ravens 23
Outlook: I wrote above that LAR/ATL was my favorite game to stack on this slate, but the more I have researched the more I think I may bump it down to number two behind this, as I fully expect this game to shootout. Lamar Jackson had an absolutely incredible game last weekend, rushing for over 100 yards, and this matchup is much better than most think even in Seattle. The Seahawks are bottom-ten in the NFL in both QB hurries and sacks, meaning Jackson should have time to pick out receivers or scramble on Sunday…and with MVP Russell Wilson on the other side, I would assume that points will need to be put up which increases his chances for rushing yards in my opinion. He might be the best overall QB play on the slate, and is firmly on my radar in all formats.
If you’re looking to stack with Jackson, the list is short and it starts and ends with Mark Andrews for me. It looks like Hollywood Brown is in danger of missing this game, while Andrews looks to be the healthiest he’s been in weeks. Andrews put the offense on his back alongside Jackson last week with a 6-99 line on 8 targets and the Hawks have quietly been flamed by Tight Ends such as Ricky Seals-Jones and Gerald Everett.
Wilson himself is an exceptional tournament play at home, and he’s sure to go overshadowed by the other QB’s on this slate in terms of ownership. I will definitely be stacking this game up in tournaments, and I am looking to run back a Ravens stack or pair Wilson with DK Metcalf. Most would think I would write about Tyler Lockett here, who I do love, but after Marlon Humphrey traveled into the slot to erase Tyler Boyd last week, I can see the same thing happening this week. Sure, we don’t know, so you can fire up Lockett in tournaments but I think Metcalf will go under-owned and if he avoids Humphrey for the majority of the game it could be his coming out party. Note that I was not high on Metcalf coming into the season, but was clearly wrong about him and am willing to take the L and fire him up in any format in Week 7.
Cash Game Outlook: Lamar Jackson, Chris Carson
GPP Outlook: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Mark Andrews
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
