Quarterback
Lamar Jackson- As the week has gone on, Jackson has shot to the top of my cash game rankings and he is where I am leaning on both sites currently. The Seahawks defense in pretty bad overall, and the Ravens defense has gotten worse as the season gone on increasing the chances that this game ends up in a shootout in my opinion. I pointed out in my game-by-game breakdown that the Hawks fail to get pressure on opposing QB’s which bodes extremely well for Jackson in this matchup. It looks like Hollywood Brown could miss this game again, and what we saw last week when he was out was that the Ravens game-planned even more around Jackson’s rushing ability with him having limited options to throw to. He is on pace to crush the rushing record for a QB, and the 100 yard bonus is certainly in play again this week. As long as this game stays close, I think he has the highest upside on the slate and there is enough value to comfortably fit him in.
Matt Ryan (DK)- If you don’t plan on spending up for Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan seems to be the top option again at home against the Rams. We all know that he has hit 300 yards in every game this season, and they Falcons just don’t run the ball enough to steal many points away from Ryan, even in the red zone. The Rams offense has not been good this season, but the Falcons defense has been so bad that they find themselves in shootouts every week. With Desmond Trufant out again this week, in addition to Keanu Neal, I see that same thing happening in Week 7 and Ryan is arguably the safest QB play on the slate in all formats.
Note: I just want to note that I think come Sunday, EVERYONE will be overlooking Josh Allen. It seems like everyone is worried about the game-script, which I get, but he is one of the best plays on the slate and is going to come in massively under-owned. I’m a firm believer in Allen’s upside, and even if the Bills blow out the Dolphins, there’s a good chance that Allen played a big role in those points and has a great fantasy day regardless. Don’t overlook him this week, and I do think he is 100% in play for cash games contrary to the public’s opinion.
Running Back
Option #1- Basically this week comes down to two different strategies for me in cash games, the first is going for our famous “threesome” strategy with Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette. Barkley is getting the softest matchup possible to return in, and the reports are that he is 100% ready to handle a full workload. Cook appears under-priced given his matchup with a giving Lions run-defense, and I don’t see the Vikings being up 20 points this week which means Mattison shouldn’t be as involved. Finally, everyone knows Fournette is a cash game lock this week against the Bengals, he’s top ten in Running Back targets and is still under-priced for his bellcow role. With someone the value we have at WR/TE — read below — it’s easy for me to get all three into an optimal build.
Option #2- On DraftKings, I fully plan on jamming in the top three backs and locking in 60+ touches, but on FanDuel we have a legitimate choice to make with Latavius Murray being priced at $5,300 in the absence of Alvin Kamara. Sure, the Bears defense is great, but the Saints have one of the best offensive lines in football, Murray has flashed some pass catching ability (he had a receiving TD called back last week) and he will be a bet for the bulk of the work for the Saints this week. It’s tough for me to ignore his price there, so locking him in along with Fournette and one of Cook/Barkley makes the most sense.
Note: If David Johnson were to get ruled out, Chase Edmonds would become a near lock in cash games and would completely change my strategy on BOTH sites.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp- There will be a ton of attention on the Rams/Falcons game this week and rightfully so, while both of Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks appear “too cheap”, if looking for cash game exposure there it would have to be with Cooper Kupp. Kupp still leads the NFL in targets through 6 weeks, and is in a great spot against a Falcons defense that has already served up eight touchdowns in the slot this season. He’s expensive, but is my preferred spend up if going that route in cash games this week.
TY Hilton (DK)- For whatever reason, DraftKings forgot to price TY Hilton accordingly this week, and he could very well be the highest owned WR on the slate at $5,900. Not only has he destroyed Romeo Crennel in seemingly every meeting with his defense, he is top-ten in the NFL in red zone targets and the Texans are dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary. He is a good play on FanDuel, but appropriately priced and far from the near must-play he is on DK.
DK Metcalf- I don’t think Metcalf is going to come in owned much at all, he should be one of the few ways to get relatively low ownership on that game. I was not expecting Marlon Humphrey to travel into the slot at all last week, and he did just that and completely shut down Tyler Boyd as a result. Marcus Peters hasn’t practiced much with the Ravens, but he should be on the field come Sunday which should allow Humphrey to do the same thing this week with Tyler Lockett, should the Ravens want him to. The problem with these situations are we have no idea what will actually happen, the assumption of rational coaching is a big thing in DFS and often gets DFS players into -EV situations. That being said, since he did it last week, I think he will do the same with Lockett which sets up Metcalf nicely to get loose on the outside in an expected shootout. He leads the team in air yards and aDOT, and despite the Ravens being a blitz-heavy defense, they are bottom-five in QB hurries and bottom-ten in sacks. I’m hoping Wilson has some time to pick out Metcalf deep, and for what it’s worth, he already has 7 red zone targets this season. This could be his coming out party…
Packers Value- We already have the news that Davante Adams is out, and both Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison are questionable after not practicing all week. Allen Lazard burst onto the scene on Monday night catching a late touchdown after Aaron Rodgers asked the coaching staff to put him in *allegedly*, and he is set up for chalk status at his minimum price tag. I don’t feel great about this situation as a whole, because I could see the Packers deflating the ball and running it as much as possible with their top-three WR’s potentially out, but at the same time, Lazard will pretty much have to play if they are all out and we definitely don’t want to pass up that type of value. I won’t call him a must play, but he is definitely going to be high-owned and it would probably make sense to just plug him in your initial build, I also don’t mind Jake Kumerow who Aaron Rodgers has also expressed positive thoughts on before, and he ran over 3x the amount of routes that Lazard did this past Monday.
Note: I didn’t list them here, but if you go the Josh Allen route in cash, I think both John Brown and Cole Beasley are in play as a stack with hinm. Brown particularly, should see double-digit ownership this week.
Tight End
Outlook: This is the easiest week I can remember at Tight End with the pricing of Hunter Henry. I don’t want to say that Henry is a must play, because there are a ton of good TE plays this week, but the reason it’s so easy for me is that I will plug Henry into my cash game lineup at his price and then fade him in tournaments for the higher upside options like Evan Engram, Austin Hooper and Mark Andrews. If you’re completely against playing Henry, the spend-up I feel best about for cash games would be Evan Engram, and then I love both Hooper and Andrews in tournaments.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
