Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has looked elite for the majority of the 2020 season. Through 5 games, he’s thrown for 1,374 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 174 pass attempts. Surprisingly, he only owns 8 carries for 45 yards this season. Rodgers’ 7.5% touchdown rate is the second-highest of his career and the highest since 2011. His 1.1% interception rate also sits below his career average.
He is coming off of his worst game of the season, throwing for 160 yards and 2 interceptions (5.8 fantasy points) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on national television. Prior to that, Rodgers was averaging 27.5 fantasy points per game, including a pair of games with 30+ fantasy points. He has a pair of elite talents in Aaron Jones and Davante Adams in the offense. Even with injuries, specifically to Allen Lazard, the other Green Bay weapons have taken the next step this season. Rodgers is a player that will always make others around him better, but the Packers finally have a number of options in their offense that can take the pressure off of each other, allowing them to find plenty of success as a whole.
Rodgers gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans. They’re only allowing 245.5 passing yards per game in 2020, but that is because of a lack of volume. The Texans have allowed 13 passing touchdowns this season while recording only 1 interception in 2020. They also rank third last in the league in adjusted yards per attempt (8.8) this season. As teams continue to throw more against Houston, their passing defense will continue to get exposed, similarly to the way Ryan Tannehill did last week. The Green Bay Packers are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 57.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.5 points. Rodgers could go overlooked because of recency bias, but he’s an elite option.
Running Back
Chris Carson
Carson has quietly found tremendous success through five games this season. He owns 289 yards and 3 touchdowns on 61 carries. He’s also added 21 receptions for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns on 23 targets in 2020. Carson has only seen 10 red zone carries this season, but he’s seen 76.9% of the team’s red zone carries. He’s also turned 4 red zone targets into 4 receptions for 45 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Carson leads the Seattle running backs, playing 56% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s turned 64.9% of the running back carries into 70.1% of the positions rushing yards and 75% of rushing touchdowns. Carson also quietly ranks third on the team in targets (23), receptions (21), and receiving touchdowns (3), while ranking fourth in receiving yards (140). He’s a player that isn’t likely to lose snaps based on game script anymore. His ability to produce in the passing game along with his rushing prowess increases his ceiling and floor on a weekly basis.
Carson gets a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. Arizona is allowing 119.7 rushing yards per game, although they’ve only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns in 2020. The Cardinals are also allowing 4.4 yards per game this season. Most importantly, they are allowing 2.55 yards before contact, putting Carson in a great spot to record 100 rushing yards in a game for the first time this season. The Seattle Seahawks are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 56 points, and they feature an implied team total of 29.8 points. Along with potentially running the clock out later in the game, Arizona is a team that loves pushing the pace, giving Carson more opportunities for carries this weekend. The majority of the ownership will likely go to the receivers in this game, causing Carson to go overlooked once again.
Antonio Gibson
Gibson has seen mixed results through six games as a rookie. He’s recorded 243 yards and 3 touchdowns on 64 carries. He’s also added 19 receptions for 147 yards on 22 targets this season. Gibson ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts per broken tackle (4.9), as well. Oddly enough, he only boasts one red zone target to go along with 10 red zone carries in 2020.
Gibson is surprisingly only playing 43.9% of the offensive snaps for the Washington Football Team this season. He’s essentially splitting snaps with J.D. McKissic while quickly taking over for Peyton Barber. Gibson has struggled with efficiency in recent games, although his receiving upside allowed him to score 22.8 fantasy points against a tough Baltimore Ravens defense. He has yet to truly break out as a runner, although that is likely to happen at some point this season. He isn’t a focal point of the passing offense because of McKissic, but Gibson owns 15 targets over his last 3 games.
He gets an ideal matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. They allowing 173.3 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry in 2020. Dallas has also given up a league-high 10 rushing touchdowns this season. They allowed a struggling Kenyan Drake to run for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries last week. Washington is a -1 point favorite in a game set at 46 points, and they boast an implied team total of 23.5 points. Their easiest path to victory will likely be through the legs of Gibson rather than the arm of Kyle Allen. Gibson boasts a higher ceiling than we’ve seen thus far, but his price tag doesn’t represent that.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams
Adams has played in one full game while getting hurt in another and benched in a blowout. Overall, he owns 23 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 targets in those 3 games. He’s seen 10+ targets in each game he played 55%+ of the snaps. In limited games, Adams has turned 3 red zone targets into 2 receptions for 11 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s seen 255 air yards to go along with an 8.5 aDOT in 2020. He’s also recorded 16.7% of Green Bay’s air yards, even though he’s played less than 3 games in 2020.
Adams has only played 47.2% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in 2020. He’s dealt with injuries and blowouts in two of his three games this season. In limited snaps, Adams has turned an 18.2% target into 20.2% of the team’s receptions, 18.4% of receiving yards, and 15.4% of receiving touchdowns. He’s played 80%+ of the offensive snaps in 2 games this season, totaling 27 targets, and he’ll continue to be a focal point of the offense while he’s healthy, specifically finding more red zone targets.
Adams gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Houston Texans. They’re allowing the third-highest adjusted yards per attempt (8.8) in the NFL this season. They’re also allowing 245.5 passing yards per game while allowing 13 passing touchdowns this season. Houston doesn’t feature anyone that will be able to slow down Adams, and they don’t feature the aggressive defense, similarly to the Tampa Bay Bucs, that could give Green Bay problems. The Packers feature the highest implied team total on the slate. Adams will likely see double-digit targets once again this week, but he could go overlooked with other elite receivers getting plus matchups, as well. He’ll feature some ownership, but once again, I’ll be overweight on him.
Jamison Crowder
Crowder continues to produce for a terrible New York Jets team. Through 4 games, he boasts 29 receptions for 383 yards, and 2 touchdowns on 46 targets. He’s seen double-digit targets in each of those games. Crowder leads New York with 3 red zone targets, posting 2 receptions for 16 yards and 1 touchdown on them. He boasts 23.1% of New York’s air yards, seeing 382 air yards with an 8.3 aDOT in 2020.
Crowder has only played 56.7% of the offensive snaps, but he’s been a focal point of the offense when healthy. His role has remained unchanged regardless of who is at quarterback, recording 23 targets with Sam Darnold at quarterback and 23 targets with Joe Flacco under center. It seems as if Crowder’s role in the offense will remain a constant regardless of who is commanding the offense.
Crowder gets a great matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are allowing 256.2 passing yards per game this season. They are allowing 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt while giving up 12 passing touchdowns in 2020. They have also struggled against the slot this season, allowing Crowder to post 7 receptions for 115 yards and 1 touchdown against them in Week 1. The Jets are +13.5 point underdogs in a game set at 45 points, giving them an implied team total of only 15.8 points. New York isn’t a team to target, but I’m willing to go back to the well on Crowder. He’s an outstanding volume play in a plus matchup.
Tight End
James O’Shaughnessy
O’Shaughnessy hasn’t been a major part of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense this season. He’s turned 15 targets into 12 receptions for 115 yards. O’Shaughnessy hasn’t seen any red zone targets in 2020. His efficiency could result in a solid game if given the opportunity, though.
O’Shaughnessy has only played 49.7% of the offensive snaps in 2020, essentially splitting snaps with Tyler Eifert. The latter was injured last week, though, and O’Shaughnessy played 75% of the offensive snaps, suggesting he’ll be the main tight end if Eifert can’t play this weekend. Eifert ranks second on the team in red zone targets (6), suggesting O’Shaughnessy could take over that role. With that being said, he failed to record any receptions in his only game without Eifert this season.
O’Shaughnessy gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are allowing 273 passing yards per game in 2020. They have given up 9 passing touchdowns this season while allowing 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt. The Jaguars are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 49 points. They own an implied team total of 20.8 points. Jacksonville will likely be throwing throughout the majority of the game. If Eifert is healthy enough to play this week, O’Shaughnessy shouldn’t be used. He’s near the minimum price though, and can be considered if Eifert is ruled out.
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