What’s up everyone! This is my fourth season breaking down every game of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited that football is back. If you are interested in my core plays plus final thoughts cheat sheet for every main slate, you can browse our packages here. With that being said, let’s get to the analysis!
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: Was there any doubt what games was coming first? The Browns haven’t won in Pittsburgh since I was eight years old, so I’m particularly excited for this one on Sunday. As excited as I am being in Northeast Ohio, I can’t get a solid read on this game. The Browns have one of Pro Football Focus’ top-five offenses through three weeks, but I am not expecting them to put up 30+ points despite the massive O/U. Per Brett Kollman … the Browns have the top-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards while the Steelers have the top defensive line in the same metric. Typically, these teams can dominate in the trenches and it’s going to make for an interesting matchup. The fact is, this Browns defense is not that good right now, and could potentially be down three safeties on Sunday. The Steelers aerial attack is going to be able to do whatever they want, and my focus is on Big Ben, Eric Ebron and JuJu Smith-Schuster. We already know I love to attack the Browns with tight ends, and Schuster has one of the top individual matchups in the league on Sunday against Tavierre Thomas. That’s not to say Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool aren’t in play, but I like to pick on the Browns over the middle of the field.
The Browns have been really good against opposing running backs, giving up under 20 fantasy points per game to the position. With other options in his price range, I will personally pass on James Conner, who is an MME-only play in Week 6.
I’m not sure what to expect from this Browns offense vs this defense, but I’m sure we will see more of the same. The Browns like to strike quick on offense with lots of play action, and then pound the ball in the second-half if they’re leading. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been good for fantasy (or even much in real-life) this season and struggles under pressure. The one guy I feel confident in is Kareem Hunt, who is one of my favorite tournament plays on this slate. Hunt saw a bell cow role against the Colts before cramping late in the game, and we don’t have to worry about game-script with how impressive he is in the passing game.
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are fine one-offs or run-backs in Steelers stacks, but individually they aren’t high up on my board this week.
UPDATE: Diontae Johnson has been ruled out for the Steelers. I expect Chase Claypool to be one of the higher-owned WRs on DraftKings, but I will stick with JuJu/Ebron as my favorite plays at much lower ownership.
Cash Game Pool: Eric Ebron
GPP Pool: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben Roethlisberger, Kareem Hunt
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Total: 53
Outlook: One of the highest O/U’s on the slate, Texans/Titans gives us a peek at how teams will be affected playing on Tuesday and then again on Sunday. This certainly could be a bit of a let down spot for the Titans, who are doing just that, and also coming off the high of a dominant win against the Buffalo Bills. Those concerns aside, this is one of the best spots on the slate against a bad Texans defense. With more touchdowns over his last 14 starts than Patrick Mahomes (per CBS Sports) Ryan Tannehill is once again a high-floor, high-ceiling play in DFS. Priced below $6,000 on DraftKings, he can be looked at in all formats. It’s unclear whether or not Corey Davis will be able to play in this game, and if he’s out heavy-ownership will be pushed onto AJ Brown. Brown looked like the 2019 version of himself in that win over Buffalo, and looks fully healthy for the first time since Week 1.
This also sets up as a spot for Derrick Henry to eat, and eat often. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to running backs than the Texans, and they’ve faced the second-most rush attempts through five weeks. Installed as a home favorite is exactly when we want King Henry, and I will be overweight to him in tournaments on DraftKings at his price tag.
Despite the Titans defense looking great against Josh Allen and friends on Tuesday, this still presents a positive spot for Deshaun Watson. Watson finally got cooking in Week 5 — coincidentally his first game free of Bill O’Brien. He has a very strong history against this defense, and is easily stackable with either of his top weapons in Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks. I always prefer Fuller, but Cooks cheap price tag keeps him in play in all formats this Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: AJ Brown, Brandin Cooks, Ryan Tannehill
GPP Pool: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 54.5
Outlook: This is one of the best games on the slate, and sets up for a clear game-stack. No team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season than the Atlanta Falcons…which sets up extremely well for Kirk Cousins. This Vikings offense is one of the most run-heavy in the NFL, and that has severely capped Cousins upside. As home favorites, this eliminates him from my cash game pool at his price, but he will be firmly on my GPP radar. The big news in Minnesota is Dalvin Cook, who looks likely to miss this game. If that holds true, back-up Alexander Mattison becomes one of the top running back plays on the slate. Mattison didn’t miss a beat once Cook went out against Seattle, and with how bad the Falcons are against running backs with receiving ability, I still think Mattison is underpriced on both sites. Despite the run-heavy approach, when Cousins is allowed to air it out, we know where the ball is going. Adam Thielen, and now Justin Jefferson. I like both of these guys in all formats, but it’s hard to overlook the floor of someone like Thielen. He isn’t priced to his ceiling, yet is first in the NFL with a 48% share of the Vikings Air Yards. He’s also 11th in targets (44). Jefferson is more of a deep threat, who is extremely cheap on FanDuel at $5,900.
This will be the Falcons first game post-Dan Quinn, but it’s tough to expect many changes offensively. Matt Ryan has struggled in recent weeks, and will likely be without Julio Jones again this Sunday. If Julio were to miss, this would bump Calvin Ridley’s ownership up after he went low-owned against the Panthers. He has a massive 30% target share with Jones out this season, though I actually prefer him if Jones is in to take some attention away. You can also consider the supplementary options such as Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus should Jones be sidelined.
Even with a monster game in Week5, Todd Gurley still couldn’t eclipse a 60% snap rate. He will continue to live and die off touchdowns, and that’s not something I typically feel comfortable betting on.
Cash Game Pool: Alexander Mattison, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley
GPP Pool: Olamide Zaccheaus, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Kirk Cousins
Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Total: 48
Outlook: This game doesn’t jump off the page when it comes to DFS, but it does contain my favorite tournament stack on the slate…the Ravens. We haven’t see the MVP-ceiling from Lamar Jackson in fantasy yet this season, and it’s only a matter of time before he turns in that monster game. The Eagles have once again been a severe pass-funnel defense, permitting the fourth-most touchdown passes through five weeks (10). As always, the best part about stacking Lamar Jackson is we 100% know where the ball is going — Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews. These two come into Week 6 with target totals of 36 and 29, while the next closest is Miles Boykin at 17. Brown has the tough matchup on paper with Darius Slay, which has me focused on Andrews if only choosing one. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and fifth-most catches to tight ends this season.
It’s tough for me to bet on the Eagles against this defense, given the state of their offensive line. We know that Wink Martindale will blitz as much as any team this weekend, and Wentz has constantly been under duress in 2020. Miles Sanders is the one Eagles player I’m willing to bet on in tournaments, given his volume and ability to stay involved in the passing game should the Eagles get down early.
I think the Ravens come out big in Week 6, and my bold call is four passing touchdowns and the 300 yard bonus for the reigning MVP. This will be my main GPP build in single entry and 3 max contests.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, Miles Sanders
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: Joe Burrow was brought back to reality that is the life of a rookie QB in Week 5, getting hit 15 times by the blitz-happy Ravens. The Colts are actually much better in most metrics than the Ravens on defense, and I simply can’t get excited about the Bengals in DFS. Joe Mixon’s volume will keep him in play if Darius Leonard misses again, but the Colts have allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing running backs. The one play I do like on Cincy is Tyler Boyd, who should feast against the Colts zone-heavy defense and will see a target projection uptick with AJ Green unlikely to play. I think most DFS players will take the value with Tee Higgins if Green is out, but I would encourage you to forgo the value and focus on Boyd who is a much safer projection.
Philip Rivers continues to look like dust, but this is one of the top matchups that the Colts will see this season. This is an extremely banged up Bengals defense, that has permitted 21 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Installed as a home favorite, the time has once again come to go back to the Jonathan Taylor well. Back-up Jordan Wilkins is banged up, which resulted in a massive workload for Taylor against the Browns. It’s unlikely they need Nyheim Hines’ pass-catching in this match-up, which means this could be the Taylor breakout game we’ve been waiting for, and it will come at suppressed ownership. As the week has gone on, I’ve come more onto Taylor in tournaments.
The usage continues to be there for TY Hilton, but his form just hasn’t been something I can count on. He is projection for decent-ownership on DraftKings, but I consider him more of a GPP play with AJ Brown and Laviska Shenault just a few hundred more. The Bengals have struggled to defend tight ends in 2020, which vaults Trey Burton as a value play. A once famous TE sleeper, Burton has logged over 5 targets per game since returning from injury.
Cash Game Pool: TY Hilton, Trey Burton
GPP Pool: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins
Washington Football Team @ New York Giants
Vegas Total: 42.5
Outlook: For lack of better words, there is not a single play I’m considering from this game in DFS. I don’t MME personally, I play 3-5 lineups, and I would need at least 100 to get to any plays in this game. With the lowest total on the main slate, there is nobody with a ceiling high enough for me to consider them as a one-off. Kyle Allen will start again for Washington, while that tanks Terry McLaurin’s value, it also won’t help that he will see James Bradberry shadow coverage. Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in four weeks, and will have a tough time dealing with this Washington pass rush.
Antonio Gibson is the one guy you can always make a case for, but there are a few cheap RB’s that I feel much more confident in. He could burn me with a huge game in the passing game, but I won’t lose sleep over having no exposure to this game in Week 6.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Both D/ST
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: Looks like we have a game here, and a really interesting injury situation with Melvin Gordon looking like a GTD for this game. There were tons of reports this offseason about Phillip Lindsay looking better than Gordon in camp, and he managed 7 attempts with one catch in their Week 1 game before leaving with turf toe. If Gordon is out, I would consider Lindsay a fantastic pivot in tournaments and probably the top value at RB. If it were any other matchup, I would be locking Lindsay into my optimal builds.
Drew Lock is back at QB, but in this matchup on the road, I will be avoiding Denver outside of Lindsay if Gordon is out.
The Broncos defense didn’t get any healthier in their time off, and this profiles like a game similar to the Patriots/Raiders game in my opinion. I don’t see Denver putting much pressure onto their offense needing to keep their foot on the gas, and I think we see a situation where the Patriots are deploying a run-heavy game plan. Cam Newton does have a ton of upside with his legs, especially in the red zone, and is firmly on my tournament radar in Week 6. I don’t expect anyone to be playing Newton. You can also easily stack him with Julian Edelman, who is somehow below $6,000 on DK.
The Pats backfield is still too much of a RBBC for me to feel comfortable here in DFS, but we could see Damien Harris excel in the Sony Michel role once again. If this does set up like that Raiders game, there is a chance we see Harris eclipse the century mark for the second time in as many games.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Cam Newton, Julian Edelman, Phillip Lindsay
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: A 45 O/U isn’t enticing given some of the other games on this slate, but there are some strong DFS plays here specifically in the backfields. The Panthers have been one of the top run-funnel defenses in the NFL over the last season and a half. They are once again allowing the most DraftKings points per game to running backs, which will bring David Montgomery into my cash game pool for the first time this season. Monty has played over 85% of the snaps since Tarik Cohen went down, and he’s also been much more involved as a pass catcher. After catching seven balls last week, we can treat him as a true three down back moving forward. He is viable in all formats in this week’s smash matchup.
I won’t be rostering any Nick Foles, but Allen Robinson will once again be a top GPP pivot. D’onte Jackson was banged up in their Week 5 win over the Falcons, and target totals of 13, 10 and 16 with Foles under center.
I was all-in on Teddy Bridgewater in Week 5, and will have literally none of him in Week 6 against this Bears defense. Chicago is coming off a mini-bye post-Thursday Night Football, and Bridgewater doesn’t have a particularly high floor. I will be locking in Mike Davis once again, however, who has literally replaced Christian McCaffrey as if he never left. Davis hauled in another 10 balls last week, and is still too cheap for the CMC-like workload he has been receiving. Even in a tough matchup, he is one of my favorite RB plays on the slate.
If I’m betting on one of the Panthers pass-catchers, it has to be Anderson. Who, like Robinson, makes for an interesting GPP leverage play off his chalky teammate Davis.
I don’t particularly like pairing opposing RB’s in cash, but I expect it to be a popular move this week.
Cash Game Pool: Mike Davis, David Montgomery
GPP Pool: Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Total: 54
Outlook: Maybe my favorite game of the weekend, I expect a full-on shootout between two bad teams with exciting offenses. It’s worth noting that this total is up over a point since opening and we could see it jump to 55 before Sunday hits. Matt Stafford sent worries throughout the fantasy community with back-to-back 17 point games to start the season, but things have been trending upward since alpha receiver Kenny Golladay returned from injury. Staff is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game in the two games Golladay has played this season, and topped 23 in their last contest despite only throwing for 206 yards. He averages nearly 300 passing yards per game with him in the lineup, and that presents one of my favorite stacks on the slate against a defense that has coughed up the 6th most fantasy points per game to QB’s. You can also look at TJ Hockenson and even Marvin Jones in tournaments due to the shootout nature of this game. Jones in particular looks washed on film, but is notorious for multi-TD games and is a fine dart in tournaments.
Due to the RBBC, I will be avoiding the Lions backfield in DFS, but fully expect one of them to have a decent day scoring wise.
As bad as the Jaguars defense is, the Lions aren’t much better. They currently have a bottom-three run-defense in the NFL and have given up over 21 points per game to quarterbacks. They are completely devoid of a pass rush, and that makes it an interesting spot for Gardner Minshew. The only bad thing is DJ Chark has yet to practice this week, and his absence would be a huge negative for the Jags offense in general. If he’s out, Laviska Shenault should be the main focus of this offense outside of James Robinson, and he would become one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Speaking of Robinson, his individual matchup and ability to catch passes elevates him to one of the best plays on the slate at running back. Ultimately, due to prices of other backs, he is more of a tournament play for me personally, with an extremely high-ceiling.
Be sure to monitor the news on the Jags defensive guys on Sunday. If they are without CJ Henderson/Myles Jack again this would elevate the spot for Detroit even further.
Cash Game Pool: Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, James Robinson, Laviska Shenault (if Chark out)
GPP Pool: Gardner Minshew, TJ Hockenson, Keelan Cole (if Chark out)
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: We were only awarded two afternoon games in Week 6, and the first one brings us a great DFS stack in the Dolphins. What’s more 2020 than wanting to stack the Dolphins in cash? Ryan Fitzpatrick has topped 25 DK points in four straight games, and the Jets are a bottom-ten fantasy defense against the quarterback position. He provides upside with his legs, and we also get the #revenge narrative against his former team. I’ve been slow to adjust to how good Myles Gaskin has been this season, and he got a massive boost against San Francisco when Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch. I expect we could see the same thing this week, which makes him one of my favorite RB plays on the slate. The Jets have been dreadful against running backs, while Gaskin is due for some major positive touchdown regression. He also has been great in the passing game, catching 6, 5, 3 and 5 balls over his last four games.
I will likely pair Fitzmagic with Gaskin or run him naked in cash games, but you can look to stack him with either DeVante Parker or Mike Gesicki in tournaments. I should probably have more interest in Parker than I do, but the $6K tier on DK is so loaded that I just can’t make the case for him over some others. Gesicki is cash game playable on FanDuel, priced below $6,000.
I like the Dolphins D/ST more than I do Joe Flacco and this Jets offense, but we have to respect what Jamison Crowder is doing. He has 20+ DK points in every game he’s played this season and logged double-digit targets from Flacco in Week 5. If Perriman misses, we can also look at Jeff Smith for min-price, who saw 11 targets against the Cardinals.
I love the Dolphins stack this week, and will consider it in cash games.
Cash Game Pool: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Myles Gaskin
GPP Pool: Jamison Crowder, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Total: 56
Outlook: This game is going to be absolutely insane…and the O/U is already up FIVE points since open. There is going to be a ton of points scored here, and it feels like I need exposure to this game in my main teams on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers has gone full #RevengeTour and is playing some of the best football we’ve seen in recent years. The Packers are a lot like the Ravens, in that, when stacking Rodgers you know you want Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Both Jones and Adams are two of my favorite plays on the slate, and the spot is surprisingly good for both of them. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most catches and receiving yards to RB’s out of the backfield, and few players in the NFL have a red zone role like Jones. Adams will play for the first time since Week 2, and has one of the highest target projections on the slate. His high price tag should keep ownership in check, and the Rodgers-Jones-Adams stack will be in my 3 max pool come Sunday.
On the Bucs side, we get the #AngryTom narrative coming off a loss to the Bears over a week ago. The mini-bye should allow the Bucs to get healthy, and I expect both of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to play in this game. The Packers have struggled mightily to generate a pass rush this season, which sets up well for Brady at home. Both defenses have been equally as good against QB’s in terms of allowing fantasy points, which puts Brady even with Rodgers in my rankings. Evans has been fed heavily in the absence of Godwin, while I like him in tournaments, my preferred option is CG himself. DFS players hate to target guys coming off injury, and we will get an ownership and injury discount with Godwin in Week 6. He is priced below $6,500 on DraftKings despite looking like Brady’s favorite target in the two games he’s played this season.
With Leonard Fournette back, I can’t trust any of the Bucs backs despite the quality of the matchup.
This O/U is insane and shows not signs of stopping it’s climb. Massive points will be scored here and we have to consider a game stack. In terms of cash games, Adams, Jones and then Godwin are the three likeliest players to make their way into my core plays on Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: Davante Adams, Chris Godwin
GPP Pool: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Tom Brady Mike Evans, Bob Tonyan
UPDATE: Looks like this game is going to be massively under-owned, and I will not be pivoting to this as my main GPP build. Rodgers-Jones-Adams with the Godwin run-back.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
