Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford
Stafford hasn’t enjoyed the start that I was expecting in 2020, but he still comes with plenty of upside on a weekly basis. Through 4 games, he boasts 1,017 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 137 pass attempts. Stafford’s touchdown rate still sits at 5.8% while he owns a 2.2% interception rate this season. He’s added 45 yards on the ground, including a pair of games with 20+ rushing yards.
Stafford has dealt with a bit of inconsistency on the Detroit Lions offense, specifically with Kenny Golladay. The latter has only played in two games this season, but it has made a major difference in the offense. Stafford is averaging 20.92 fantasy points per game with Golladay playing as opposed to only 17.17 fantasy points per game with him sidelined. Stafford also posted his best two games of the season with Golladay in the lineup. Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola have been inconsistent veterans early in the season while T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are young guys continuing to progress. In other words, I expect Detroit’s offense to progress as the season moves on.
Stafford gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. They’re allowing 280.2 passing yards per game while also giving up 11 passing touchdowns through 5 games. Jacksonville also ranks second-last in adjusted yards per attempt (8.8) in 2020. The Jaguars haven’t blitzed at a high rate this season, resulting in a below-average QB pressure percentage (21%). Stafford will have plenty of time to find a number of healthy receiving options coming off of their bye week. The Lions are -3 point favorites in a game set at 54 points, giving them an implied team total of 28.5 points. If Stafford is forced to throw the ball 35+ times, he’ll make an elite option with Golladay in the lineup.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has struggled a bit in a major role in 2020. He owns 307 yards and three touchdowns on 77 carries through 4 games. He’s also added 12 receptions for 107 yards on 13 targets as a rookie. Even with the struggles, Taylor ranks sixth in the NFL in red zone carries (17). Most importantly, he’s seen 66.7% of the Indianapolis Colts carries inside the five-yard line.
Taylor has played 48.7% of the Colts offensive snaps this season, including 55% of the Week 5 snaps. He’s been their most efficient runner, totaling 58% of the team’s rushing yards and 75% of rushing touchdowns on only 51.6% of the carries. Oddly enough, Taylor’s speed and power haven’t followed him to the NFL, as he’s averaging only 1.5 yards after contact per attempt while averaging 38.5 attempts per broken tackles. These are two of the worst numbers in the NFL, but I continue to believe he’ll break out from this slow start, as he was an ultra-talented running back coming out of Wisconsin.
Taylor gets an ideal matchup for his struggles, though. The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing 159 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry in 2020. They have also given up five rushing touchdowns early this season. Most importantly, Cincinnati is giving up a slate-high 2.65 yards before contact this season. Indianapolis features a dominant offensive line, and Taylor isn’t going to have to break tackles throughout this game. The Colts are also -8 point favorites in a game set at 46 points. They boast an implied team total of 27 points this weekend. They are an offense that is likely to be running the clock out late, as well, keeping Taylor on the field while Nyheim Hines plays in passing situations. Many have soured on Taylor early into his career, but he’s in the perfect matchup for his recent struggles.
Myles Gaskin
Gaskin has been one of the biggest surprises of 2020, totaling 249 yards and one touchdown on 64 carries through 5 games. He boasts 23 receptions for 147 yards on 25 targets this season, as well. Gaskin has seen 17 red zone carries, although Jordan Howard has been the goal line back. With that being said, Howard was a healthy scratch last week, while Gaskin scored a one-yard touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers.
Gaskin is the clear lead back for the Miami Dolphins, playing 66.1% of the offensive snaps this season. Miami also seems fine riding him throughout games, giving him 16 and 22 carries in their wins this season. He’s a player that will always have a role on the field regardless, though, as he boasts a major role in the Dolphins passing attack. His biggest concern early in the season was Howard stealing his touchdowns, but Gaskin seems to be the preferred option at the goal line at this point.
He gets a plus matchup against the New York Jets, who are allowing 128.6 rushing yards per game in 2020. They’re also giving up 4.2 yards per carry this season while allowing 9 rushing touchdowns through 5 games. The Dolphins are currently -10 point favorites in a game set at 47.5 points, suggesting Gaskin could be in line for a large workload this weekend. That role will grow even larger with Howard out of the picture. Gaskin is absurdly priced for the matchup, making him one of the top options on the slate.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen
Thielen has been enjoying an elite season through five games. He owns 29 receptions for 364 yards and 6 touchdowns on 44 targets. He’s turned a team-high 7 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 70 yards and 5 touchdowns. Thielen has also scored a trio of touchdowns inside-the-10. He’s seen 638 air yards with a 14.5 aDOT this season. Most importantly, he leads the NFL in his team’s percentage of air yards (48.4%).
Thielen has played 92% of the offensive snaps in 2020, leading Justin Jefferson by nearly 20%. It’s clear he’s the focal point of the passing attack as he’s seen a 33.3% target share in 2020. He’s turned those into 32.6% of Minnesota’s receptions, 32.2% of receiving yards, and 75% of receiving touchdowns. The most important aspect of Thielen’s game is his role in the red zone. On the season, he’s seen 70% of Minnesota’s red zone targets, and his role could increase if Dalvin Cook is forced to miss this game.
Thielen gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this week. They’re allowing 335.8 passing yards per game in 2020. They’ve also given up a league-high 15 passing touchdowns while allowing a league-high 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt. They are dealing with injuries throughout their secondary, but they don’t feature anyone that can slow down Thielen regardless. The Minnesota Vikings are only -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 54.5 points. They boast an implied team total of 29 points, although it’s fair to believe they won’t be running the clock out late in this game. Thielen will certainly garner ownership this week, but I’ll be overweight to the field on him this weekend.
Jamison Crowder
Crowder has looked outstanding through three games this season. He boasts 22 receptions for 335 yards and 2 touchdowns on 33 targets. In only 3 games, Crowder has turned his team-high 2 red zone targets into 2 receptions for 16 yards and 1 touchdown. His lack of targets overall is concerning, but that’s simply the offense he’s in. He’s seen 284 air yards with an 8.6 aDOT, allowing him to be an efficient receiver. Overall, he owns 21.7% of New York’s air yards this season.
Crowder has only played 49.8% of the New York Jets offensive snaps in 2020, but he’s played 75% of more of the snaps in each of his 3 healthy games. Crowder has also commanded 10+ targets in each of his games, scoring 20+ fantasy points in each game. His role was somewhat in question when Sam Darnold was injured, but it was clear that he was also a favorite of Joe Flacco, who is expected to draw the start this weekend.
Crowder gets a matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are allowing 253.6 passing yards per game and 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up seven passing touchdowns in five games. Most importantly, Miami has struggled against the slot this season. The Jets are +10 point underdogs in a game set at 47.5 points this weekend, and they own an implied team total of 18.8 points. While there isn’t much to get excited about in this offense, Crowder has found tremendous success. He’s still a bit too cheap, especially on full-PPR sites like DraftKings, making him a solid option in a game that his team is likely to throw in from start to finish.
Tight End
Cameron Brate
Brate hasn’t been a major part of the Tampa Bay Bucs offense early in 2020. He only owns 6 receptions for 47 yards, and 1 touchdown on 8 targets. Brate saw his role grow last week after an injury to O.J. Howard, allowing him to post 5 receptions for 44 yards on 6 targets. His only other reception on the season was a three-yard touchdown.
Brate has only played 18.8% of the offensive snaps in 2020, although that jumped to 46% in his only game without Howard. Most importantly, Brate saw only 11 passing snaps the first 4 weeks of the season, but he saw 22 passing snaps in Week 5. He saw 396 air yards with a 7.2 aDOT on 55 targets last season, and he should see similar opportunities for the remainder of the season.
Brate gets an interesting matchup against the Green Bay Packers this week. They’re allowing 247.5 passing yards per game, although they have given up 7 passing touchdowns through 4 games. Green Bay is also allowing 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. Tampa Bay is a +2.5 point underdog in a game set at 54 points, giving them an implied team total of 25.8 points. It’s clear Brate is going to take on a significantly larger role in the passing attack, but his price tag doesn’t represent that this week.
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