Welcome in to a new year of Ben’s NFL DFS Building Blocks for DraftKings and FanDuel! In this article, I will highlight my favorite NFL DFS plays at each position for small-field tournament formats. If you’re interested in signing up for premium access, which grants you Core Plays for every slate, projections, Final Thoughts player pool + expert picks and our premium Discord click HERE. You can also sign up for our plethora of AI-driven sports betting tools and access to my weekly betting card by clicking HERE. Let’s get into the plays…
Quarterback
Highest pOWN% QB’s: Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels, Geno Smith
My Conviction Plays: Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco
We have a small 10 game slate on tap for Week 5, but a surprising amount of strong totals with FIVE of the ten coming in at 46 points or higher.
Brock Purdy looks to be where the field is most likely to go, and I can’t blame them given that San Francisco has the highest implied team total on the board at a whopping 28 points. Purdy has looked awesome this season, dispelling his reputation as a YAC merchant and currently pacing the NFL in both Air Yards and Net Yards gained per pass attempt. Arizona has been dreadful on defense, and it’s certain that SF will be scoring points in this one — it comes down to touchdown variance and whether or not they are through the air or on the ground.
Jordan Love looked fantastic in his first game back from injury last week, topping 380 yards with four passing touchdowns in a near 20+ point comeback vs the Vikings. Los Angeles has been vulnerable through the air this season, and I think Love is likely to put up another big game here with easy stacking ability due to the salaries of his pass catchers. Love is viable in all formats, and I don’t think you need me to tell you that.
My favorite lower owned spots on the week are going to come from the IND/JAX game and once again, Deshaun Watson.
I’ve been on Watson the last few weeks and he has been serviceable for DFS but far from a slate-breaking option. The narrative surrounding his real-life playing (warranted) is going to cloud the judgement of casual players and they’re not even going to consider him this week despite it being the best match-up he will see all season. Even after Kyler Murray’s dud a week ago, Washington is coughing up the second-most DK points per game to opposing QB’s and Cleveland continues to run one of the ONLY pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. He should get a boost with David Njoku back, adding to his thin weaponry and I still believe there to be upside to designed QB run’s inside the red zone. He’s only $5,300 on DK and can be cheaply skinny-stacked to allow for a stars/scrubs type build.
IND/JAX could go to the moon with Joe Flacco at QB and I’m here for it. IND already plays at a top-three neutral pace and we could see a more pass-heavy attack from them due to the presence of Flacco and the fact that Jonathan Taylor is out due to injury this week. Given how fast Indy has been going, we have seen max play volume from their opponents this season boding well for the chances this is a get-right spot for the Jaguars offense. Trevor Lawrence has underwhelmed, but this is a ceiling-type spot for him and I currently have a bet on him to lead Sunday in passing yards at 25/1 odds. Weather looks solid as of now, and I want to be overexposed to this game on both the early and main slates this weekend.
Joe Burrow has looked great in every game after Week 1 and I’m obviously interested in him with the total sitting at 49 vs the Ravens.
Running Back
Highest pOWN% RB’s: Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy
My Conviction Plays: Jordan Mason, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Andre Swift
The mid-tier at RB continues to be the theme of this season — with Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker and Chuba Hubbard all projecting for double-digit ownership on this ten game slate. Mason continues to be my favorite, operating in one of the best roles in fantasy football yet never seeming to priced accordingly for it. Hubbard has a much tougher match-up than he’s seen the last two weeks, so I’m a bit less interested there. I’m also less interested in Kyren Williams who just can’t seem to stop scoring touchdowns. Williams has done basically nothing this season except run extremely hot in the TD department. That becomes a risky game when your team is down two star WR’s and there is systemic risk that the offense just doesn’t produce week to week. I would rank them Mason, Walker, Williams, Hubbard this week but I fully understand that Mason/Williams will be the chalk cash game pairing.
My favorite play on the slate at any position this weekend is Derrick Henry. In fact, I can’t believe he’s not projecting for 25-30% ownership. Outside of Week 1 vs KC when BAL was in a losing game-script, he’s looked fantastic and continues to look better week after week. He topped 20+ MPH on that opening drive TD run last week, showing us he is fully healthy and still capable of vintage King Henry performances. Now he draws a cupcake spot against the Bengals run defense that has been destroyed by the likes of Chuba Hubbard and Rhamondre Stevenson this season. CIN really took a hit in their run defense last year when DJ Reader was out, and we’ve seen that continue this season with Reader now in Detroit. I think 150+ yards is in play for Henry this week and I want to be overweight to him across my lineups.
There are two lower-owned options I like as well this week, Rhamondre Stevenson and D’Andre Swift. Much as been made of Jerod Mayo’s comments on Stevenson this week, especially on Friday when it was announced that Antonio Gibson will start for the Patriots but Stevenson “will still play”. I’m taking this with a grain of salt. I fully expect Gibson to get the first few snaps of the game for the Patriots on offense, but Stevenson is still clearly the guy here in my opinion. They paid him handsomely this past off-season, and he’s handled over 60% of the touches even with his fumble issues. Miami has been extremely soft in run-defense this season, so now we are going to get a play I love at really low ownership. I’m expecting this to end up as just a way for Mayo to light a fire under Stevenson’s ass and I still like him in GPPs this weekend.
As for Swift, he got the same treatment last weekend and responded with his best game as a Bear. This is one of the best match-ups he will see all season, and we are expecting very windy conditions in Chicago on Sunday. Carolina has allowed the second-most DK PPG to RB’s this season, and will be without their two best LB’s on Sunday. I love Swift/CHI DST as a correlation piece on the early or main slate.
Wide Receiver
Highest pOWN% WR’s: Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Jordan Whittington, Michael Pittman, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, Nico Collins
My Conviction Plays: Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas JR, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, Bo Melton, SEA WR’s
WR ownership is very clear this week, with the Packers dominating given that pricing came out before it was fully clear whether or not Christian Watson would miss. On top of Watson likely being out, we also got news on Friday that Romeo Doubs is doubtful due to disciplinary reasons. This gives very clear projected target shares to Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft — with Bo Melton working in as well in three receiver sets. All of these guys are good plays this week due to their salaries and it all comes down to roster construction and the overall ownership of your team whether or not you play one or multiple of them.
We also have some ownership concentrating on Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman and Jordan Whittington. Samuel makes sense with Purdy being the highest-owned QB and their massive team total. He’s viable in all formats, but I’ve been struggling on where to rank him vs other players similarly priced — namely Kenneth Walker. Pittman is set up for a smash spot vs the Jaguars, especially if we get Flacco at QB. He was instantly unlocked once Flacco entered the game last week, and has one of the stronger WR/CB match-ups on the slate. I was a week early on Whittington — last week the Rams deployed him how I imagined they would in their first week sans Cooper Kupp. I think he’s the best active Rams WR, but if he is going to be high-owned I would rather pivot to Tutu Atwell in tournaments.
Given my interest in the Browns and IND/JAX offenses I’m going to be targeting them heavily at the WR position. Brian Thomas JR is priced close enough to Pittman / Reed / Diontae that he should be relatively low-owned here. He’s been elite this season — top 20 in YPRR per SumerSports and looks to be ascending as Lawrence’s favorite target. This is the best match-up he’s seen so far this season, and I like both him and Christian Kirk at their price tags.
Amari Cooper has disappointed this season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He’s been one of the unluckiest WR’s in football in XFP vs actual fantasy points per Fantasy Point Data and he had an 80 yard TD called back last week. His game log could look quite different, and I want to buy the squeaky wheel narrative here against the worst secondary in the league.
Stefon Diggs won’t get too crazy in ownership due to the presence of Nico Collins — but Collins himself even said the Texans need to win this game for Diggs. He’s had a high volume role in the slot for CJ Stroud and I expect him to be involved heavily early on in the game on Sunday.
Tight End
Highest pOWN% TE’s: Tucker Kraft, Colby Parkinson
My Conviction Plays: Tucker Kraft, George Kittle, David Njoku, Erick All, Theo Johnson
Tight End is once again an unmitigated disaster in Week 5. We currently have over 50% collective ownership projected onto Tucker Kraft and Colby Parkinson — while I think Kraft will be well over 50% himself in cash game formats. He is the clear best point per dollar play, but I find it very tough to play a value TE at that sort of ownership in tournaments, even smaller-field ones. If it’s a Jordan Love team, it’s fine, if not I’ll probably just bite the bullet and try to differentiate even if it means sacrificing a boatload of projection.
As for tournaments, the one play I love is David Njoku at $5,000. I hate spending into this range at TE, but I think he could be heavily featured for the Browns this weekend. Much has been made of Amari Cooper’s struggles this season, but it remains clear the Browns want to operate a pass-heavy game plan. I would expect them to feature Njoku early on in the game as a safety blanket across the middle of the field for Watson who has struggled with pressure.
I’ll likely just end up punting this position on most of my teams, which puts guys like Erick All and Theo Johnson at the top of my board due to their price tags.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
