Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew
Minshew has found quite a bit of success through four games this season. He boasts 1,138 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions on 147 pass attempts. Minshew also added 69 yards on the ground in those contests. His touchdown rate is up to 5.4% in 2020, although his interception rate is also up to 2.7%.
Minshew is remembered for his struggles against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, scoring only 11.2 fantasy points. He has looked great outside of that game, scoring 24.94, 28.46, and 20.82 fantasy points against the Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts, respectively. His top receiving option, D.J. Chark, missed a game with an injury but has also played injured. Chark looks to be healthy at this point, though, posting 8 receptions for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns in his return last week. Keelan Cole has also stepped up at WR this season, giving a solid second option off of Chark. Rookies James Robinson and Laviska Shenault have flashed in the receiving game, as well, and it’d be far from surprising if Jacksonville decides to get them more involved as time moves on.
Minshew gets a matchup against the Houston Texans, who are only allowing 211.5 passing yards per game in 2020. They have only seen 114 pass attempts, though, while allowing the third-highest adjusted yards per attempt (9.2) and ninth-highest touchdown rate (6.1%) in the league. In other words, Houston has featured one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, but their opponents haven’t been forced to throw against them throughout their games. The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 54 points. They own an implied team total of 23.8 points, but more importantly, they are likely to be forced to throw from the start to the finish of this game.
Running Back
Devin Singletary
Singletary has been inconsistent through four games in 2020. He owns 212 yards and 1 touchdown on 50 carries thus far. More importantly, he boasts 16 receptions for 114 yards on 21 targets this season. Singletary has seen 3 red zone targets and 10 red zone carries in 2020, but he has benefited from an injury to Zack Moss, who missed the last two weeks.
Singletary has played 71.6% of the offensive snaps, although that number is inflated from the injury to Moss. Still, Singletary has produced 56.8% of the rushing yards and 25% of the rushing touchdowns on 50% of the attempts. He’s also recorded 15.2% of the receptions, 8.6% of the receiving yards on a 14.6% target share. Singletary’s snaps are likely to drop if Moss is active this week. With that being said, Moss practiced last week but still missed the game. It may have been as simple as him not being healthy enough to play or Buffalo could feel comfortable with Singletary in an every-down role and didn’t want to test Moss at that point.
Singletary gets an elite matchup against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. They rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (166). They’re also allowing a league-high 5.8 rushing yards per game in 2020, although they have held their opponents to only three rushing touchdowns. I expect teams to start finding the end zone on the ground, though, and that may start with Buffalo this weekend. The concern with Singletary is the return of Moss this weekend. Keep in mind, he’s a rookie coming off of an injury that struggled early through his first pair of games. The lack of known role between the duo will keep Singletary’s ownership down, but he comes with elite receiving upside and can find success in this particular matchup on the ground. He may also find a bigger role if Buffalo wants to play it slow with the return of Moss.
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs has cooled off after a massive Week 1, posting 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on 83 carries through 4 weeks. He owns 13 receptions for 100 yards on 17 targets, as well. Jacobs ranks sixth in the NFL with 14 red zone carries. Surprisingly, he has only seen one of six red zone targets to the running backs.
Jacobs has been the clear-cut top option for Las Vegas at running back, playing on 67.8% of the offensive snaps. He’s seen 74.8% of the team’s rushing attempts, totaling 65.1% of the rushing yards and 75% of the rushing touchdowns. Even though he hasn’t been a red zone factor in the receiving game, Jacobs boasts five more targets than Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker combined, suggesting he’ll find more red zone targets as the season progresses.
Jacobs gets a plus matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 161 rushing yards per game in 2020. They’re giving up 5.3 yards per carry, as well. Similarly to Tennessee, Kansas City has only allowed three rushing touchdowns in 2020, although I expect that to change as they play more games. The Chiefs have struggled against running quarterbacks this season, although they have routinely allowed opposing running backs record 5+ yards per carry this season. The Las Vegas Raiders are massive underdogs in this game, although I expect them to try to control the game early with Jacobs. The blowout factor adds to his risk but is one of the key reasons he makes a great tournament option, as Las Vegas will need plenty of production out of him if they want to keep this game from getting out of hand early on.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore
Moore has struggled for the most part this season, recording 18 receptions for 288 yards while failing to score on 32 targets. He flashed upside with 8 receptions for 120 yards against the Tampa Bay Bucs, though. Moore has only seen one red zone target in 2020, failing to bring it in. He does rank fourth in the NFL in the percentage of his team’s air yards (42.7%). Overall, he has seen 397 air yards to go along with a 12.4 aDOT.
Moore has played 83.2% of the offensive snaps, leading all other receivers by 10% or more. He’s a player due for positive regression as the season continues. He’s seen a 23.4% target share but only owns 17.5% of the team’s catches and 25.1% of the receiving yards. Moore isn’t likely to become a fixture in the red zone, although he will see his role grow from what it’s at now, as it’s unlikely that Robby Anderson and Mike Davis will continue to garner 66.7% of Carolina’s red zone targets.
Moore gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. They’re allowing 341.5 passing yards per game while also allowing a league-high 13 passing touchdowns in 2020. Furthermore, they are giving up 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt this season. The Falcons continue to deal with injuries in their secondary, and there is very little reason to believe they’re going to be able to slow down the Carolina passing attack. Anderson is $100 cheaper than Moore on this slate and has consistently outproduced him. With Anderson garnering the ownership, I’m leaning toward Moore in tournaments. It’s only a matter of time before he sees positive regression, and this is an ideal matchup for him to take advantage of.
Michael Gallup
Gallup has been the definition of a boom or bust option this season. He owns only 13 receptions for 275 yards and 1 touchdown on 24 targets through 4 games. Gallup hasn’t been a red zone option, failing to catch his only red zone target on the season. He does rank second in the NFL with a 17.4 aDOT, though. He’s seen 418 air yards, accounting for 26.4% of Dallas’ air yards this season.
Gallup quietly leads the Dallas Cowboys receivers in offensive snap percentage (88.4%) in 2020. He surprisingly ranks fifth on the team in targets after Mike McCarthy referred to him as a WR1 with Amari Cooper. That clearly hasn’t been the case, although he’s the big play option. He flashed that against the Seattle Seahawks, posting a 6/138/1 line on 9 targets. Gallup isn’t going to see a ton of volume with Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalton Schultz getting targets, but he doesn’t need 10+ targets to find elite success.
Gallup gets a great matchup against the New York Giants. They’re only allowing 221.5 passing yards per game in 2020, although they have given up 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt. The Giants have also given up seven passing touchdowns this season. New York features one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, allowing Gallup and company to take advantage of it. Similarly to most week, the Cowboys offense is going to garner ownership but Gallup won’t. He’s priced significantly lower than the other options at this point but comes with similar upside. He may become a player that we can only use in elite matchups, but this is one of those matchups. He’s a lower owned way to get a piece of one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Tight End
Eric Ebron
Ebron has seen mixed results through three games this season. He’s posted 9 receptions for 113 yards and 1 touchdown on 14 targets. Ebron is coming off of his best game of the season, though, recording a 5/52/1 line on 7 targets against the Houston Texans. He’s turned his only red zone target in 2020 into a 10-yard touchdown.
Ebron is the lead tight end for the Pittsburgh Steelers, playing 71.8% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s only seen a 13.1% target share with that matching his production. He’s recorded 12.3% of Pittsburgh’s receptions, 14.5% of receiving yards, and 14.3% of receiving touchdowns. Ebron has seen 18.7% of the team’s air yards, though, recording 147 air yards with a 10.5 aDOT.
He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are allowing 243.5 passing yards per game. They’ve given up 7 passing touchdowns in 2020 while allowing 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt. The Eagles have given up a few massive games to tight ends, allowing Logan Thomas, Tyler Higbee, and George Kittle to total 24 receptions for 274 yards and 5 touchdowns. I don’t expect Ebron to receive the same volume as Kittle, nor does he have the touchdown upside of Higbee, but Philadelphia’s struggles against the tight end suggest Ebron could see his best week to date as a Steeler.
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