What is up Karma Nation! I will be diving into SuperDraft today. If you haven’t signed up yet, make sure to use PROMO CODE: KARMA for a massive deposit bonus! We recently partnered with SuperDraft, if you haven’t heard of them it is a relatively new site, which does not have a salary cap. The way you separate yourself from the field is by multipliers. Each individual player has a multiplier by his name. The guys who are projected to score less have a higher multiplier, while the fantasy stars either have no multiplier or barely any. This adds a lot of thought to your DFS lines, since you can fit anyone you want.
I will be breaking down my top ceiling plays for tomorrow’s slate. There are so many different ways to play SuperDraft. We can see a lot of spread out ownership which makes this site amazing.
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Quarterbacks
At quarterback there are a couple different routes you can go and this is what usually trips me up. I usually prefer to “Pay down”. The value at QB is always so high I like to pick players with the higher multiplier. We normally see at least one or two cheaper guys go off so I look to take advantage of that in GPPs because it can really separate you from the field.
Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.65x: I am probably going to live or die on this play. Quarterbacks have been tearing this Seattle secondary apart all year. Partially because Russ is scoring so much the defense can sit back in prevent and allow yards to build up. Also, Russ is scoring so fast, the pace of the game is higher than we normally see from this Seahawks team. More plays equal more fantasy points on both sides. Leading to a great game to stack. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 430 yards through the air and 2 touchdowns a game.
Fitzpatrick has started off this season through some ups and downs. He has 679 yards passing, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Close to half of those yards and touchdowns all came in the Bills game. He will see similar game script in that game as he will see tomorrow. We can get a baseline projection comparing games like that to game logs in the Seattle game. Surprisingly, he also has added 68 yards on the ground for 1 touchdown. This is an overlooked part of his game, but he is not afraid to scramble unlike most older quarterbacks.
I love stacking him with Gesicki, Parker, and Gaskin. I am not adding them as top GPP plays for SuperDraft but I do like the stacking factor if you are playing FitzMagic.
Running backs
Alvin Kamara 1.15x: I am sure everyone has read about Kamara all week, but there is good reason for that. Kamara has had an extremely high usage this season without Michael Thomas and now the Saints will be without Jared Cook. Kamara isn’t utilized that much in the running game, but makes up for it in the air. With Thomas out Kamara has boasted huge numbers in the passing game. He has seen 23 targets over the last two games, with several coming back due to holding calls. While posting an aDOT of only 0.2, totaling 6 air yards on the season. He makes up for this low aDOT by being one of the best ball carries in the league. Leading the league in yards after catch, by over 100 yards, with 280. Averaging over 10 yards a reception. Being able to get running backs in open space increase the value of each touch exponentially. Even though Kamara isn’t getting the same touches as some other running backs, his touches are way more valuable. There is a stigma that Kamara doesn’t get red zone or goal line work, but this year has been different. Kamara has nine RZ carries to Murray’s eight, while seeing five inside the 5 to Murray’s one. This goal line work has given Kamara two extra touchdowns this season, which we would normally see go to Murray in the past. While Kamara’s explosion has been partially due to the game script element, don’t overlook the Lions tomorrow. The Saints will be without Lattimore, Jenkins, and Davenport. This defense was bad enough in the air now they lose one of their best pass rushers and two of their best players in the secondary. Davenport was out last week against the Raiders who were missing their two tackles and Carr still had all the time in the world to throw. This game should be high scoring and Kamara will be need to score the brunt of the touchdowns.
This is another game with an interesting game stack. Stafford, Kamara, and Golladay.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Boyd 1.4x: Boyd is coming off a huge week, and is poised to add on to that success again against the Jaguars. Tyler Boyd has shown himself to be the true WR1 on this team. We actually saw this trend the year before last. Boyd played a lot better with Green on the field than without him. In 2018, Boyd’s breakout year, he posted 8 targets, 6 catches, 77.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns a game through his first game games of the season. Green gets hurt, that number drops to 62.5 yards per game on 4.2 receptions. Boyd is currently 5th in the league in receptions, while only being targeted the 11th most in the league. His targets have gone up every game this season, 5, 8, 13. Burrow is starting the rely on him more as the season progresses. Burrow is leading the league in drop backs and posted back to back 300 yards games. The Bengals should have favorable game script for Boyd the majority of the season, and as Burrow gets more and more comfortable in the pocket that will just add to Boyd fantasy value. Expect a big game out of him against the Jags.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller 1.2x: Waller has had an amazing start to the season. Unfortunately, he hit a wall last week against the Patriots. We all saw Belichick in warned down t-shirt for his press conference. Of course, they would have came up with the perfect plan to shut down the Raiders best pass catcher. Now Waller gets to face Buffalo, who has had issues defending TEs this year. Herdon had his best game of the season putting up 6 receptions for 37 yards. Gesicki, who is a better comp to Waller, had 10 targets for 8 receptions, 130 yards, and a touchdown. The Rams TEs combined for 4 receptions and 73 yards. Waller has a 28% target share in the offense, one of the top for any TE this year. He only blocks on 8% of offensive plays. He leads all TEs with 28% of his routes where he saw a target.
