Welcome to the NFL DFS Slate Breakdown! This is a new article I will be writing this season, offering my favorite plays position-by-position. I will be discussing my top cash game plays, GPP targets, pivots and stacks! This article will also feature data tables produced by Sam Scherman, that I use heavily in my decision making each week. If you’re a fan of my content (thank you) I highly recommend purchasing access to my Core Plays for both main slates and showdown, and joining our FREE Discord!
Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live NFL Odds
Quarterback
Josh Allen- Anyone that reads this article knows I loved Allen last week, and the same can be said for Week 4 against the Texans. He was awarded with a big-time price hike, but it was deserved and I still view him as affordable at $8,000. Buffalo owns the slates highest team total at 32 points, and we can be certain that Allen will play a big part in any points scored as a team. Houston comes into Week 4 ranking bottom-ten in passing yards allowed and surrendering 24 points per game to the position. Allen is the weeks top play, but may end up under-owned due to his price tag.
Kyler Murray- Murray is someone I write up every week, and I think will be virtually un-owned in Week 4 despite playing in the slate’s highest O/U affair. Everyone is going to be scared of the match-up with a great Rams defense, and I’ve already seen posts about Murray’s lack of success against this team over the last two seasons. I personally don’t weigh that as heavily, seeing as it is 2021 and I’m not rostering him based off a game in 2019. He will continue to have one of the highest floor/ceiling combos in fantasy football in this offense, and any time we get access to a ceiling like his for 5% ownership I want to take advantage. In Week 3, he posted 22.5 DK points despite not throwing a touchdown pass, speaking to how high his floor really is. I do think this game can shoot out, and I want to be exposed to Murray in GPPs this week.
Sam Darnold- Many will be focused on Dak Prescott in this game, currently projecting as the highest-owned QB on the main slate. While I’m always interested in Prescott, I don’t plan on using him in cash games and prefer the pivot to Darnold in tournaments. I believe this is a strong match-up for Darnold who is averaging 8 YPA this season — while the Cowboys are allowing over 8 YPA on defense. This game also owns one of the higher O/U on the slate, set at 51.5. Overall, Darnold is close enough in price to Prescott that I expect him to end up much lower owned. Dallas has really cut back Prescott’s rushing work, rightfully so coming off his major injury. Lack of rushing so far is baked into Dak’s price, but I think Darnold has a similar ceiling for half the ownership on Sunday.
Taylor Heinicke- Heinicke has grown on me as the week has wore on, and he’s actually one of my favorite options overall. Last week, everyone in the industry was blowing Daniel Jones and the Giants offense against this Atlanta Falcons defense. This week, we get a player very similar to Jones in Heinicke in the same great match-up…but nobody is interested? Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most DK points to QB’s this season, and the fourth-most rushing yards to the position. It’s rare that I spend down at QB, so having rushing ability is a key factor in that decision and I believe he does. I have him graded as viable in all formats for Week 4.
Favorite Pivots: Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins
Running Back
Derrick Henry- Henry is a no-brainer play for me this weekend against the Jets, and someone I will be anchoring my teams around. He’s been his usual monster on the ground topping 100 rushing yards in two of three games, but has been awarded a new role as a pass catcher. He has 3+ catches in each of the first three weeks, and could be in line for more receiving work this weekend with AJ Brown and Julio Jones both extremely questionable. Even without the receptions, we love Henry in games the Titans should be leading and that is more likely than not against this Jets team. With a banged up WR room, we could see the Titans feed the King 30 carries and he should be over $9K in this match-up.
Najee Harris- Harris has made the most of a bad situation, and has logged 95% or more of the Steelers snaps in all three weeks to begin his NFL career. He is coming off a historic Week 3 in which he caught 14 of 19 targets. It appears Diontae Johnson will be back for the Steelers, but the Packers have already allowed 19 catches to this position to go along with two touchdowns. I don’t think Harris is a must play, but I think he is too cheap for his receiving ceiling and I believe he is viable in both cash games and GPPs. He also can be used as a correlation play / secondary stack with our cover boy, Davante Adams.
Zack Moss- I’m not sure if I have ever written up a Bills running back in one of my articles, but here we are. After being inactive in Week 1, he has ran ahead of Devin Singletary and posted DK point totals of 16 and 18 over the last two weeks. Most importantly, the Bills seem extremely committed to Moss in the red zone as he ranks third in football in rush attempts inside the 10 (7)…and that’s with him missing a game! Buffalo are huge favorites, and Moss is one of my favorite mid-tier plays in Week 4.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire- CEH weathered an early fumble in Week 3 en route to his best performance of the season and 20.9 DK points. He still logged over 70% of the running back snaps, and I really like this match-up for him against the Eagles. Everyone watched the Eagles willingly concede RB work to the Cowboys on Monday night, and I expect them to do the same against this Chiefs offense. Now, you’re never going to truly slow down Patrick Mahomes and co, but that is exactly what the Chargers attempted to do last weekend as well. They’ve allowed the fourth-most rushing yards this season, and I don’t think Edwards-Helaire received enough of a price bump after his big Week 3.
Pivot: D’Andre Swift- Everyone knows I’m a Swift truther, and will be going back to the well in GPPs this weekend even against the vaunted Bears defense. He has been everything we hoped for this season, owning the third-highest target% for a running back in the NFL through three weeks. Dan Campbell appears ready to unleash Swift in an even bigger role this week, and this Bears team was abused by Kareem Hunt as a pass catcher last weekend. Overall, I love Swift’s ceiling and I think he is a similar play to Harris, despite what should be lower ownership.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams- Adams needs no introduction, dominating the Packers looks once again with an insane target share of over 40%. This is a scary mis-match for the Packers offensive line vs the Steelers pass rush, but it’s really hard to argue with the amount of work Adams is going to get each week. He is way underpriced at $7,900 and should be well over $8K with the amount of targets he gets. He is projecting extremely well and will be no secret this weekend, but he is a building block for me in cash game formats.
Cooper Kupp- Kupp is another guy that clearly needs no introduction. He leads the WR position in PPR points this season, putting up 91 to date. He’s second to only Adams in targets, and clearly has a strong rapport with Matthew Stafford. Overall, these two are going to project closely and are the clear top two plays at their position. Kupp is currently projecting for slightly higher ownership due to the game environment, and I believe the optimal approach in cash games is to build around at least one of them.
CeeDee Lamb- This is a get-right spot for Lamb and Amari Cooper after a they weren’t needed for much in the route of the Eagles on Monday night. Carolina has played great on the defensive side of the ball this season, but a large part of that has been Jaycee Horn’s lockdown coverage and he will not be on the field for this game on Sunday. Lamb has been Prescott’s favorite target this season, and draws a favorable individual match-up against Donte Jackson. He is my favorite WR from this game and can be used in all formats on both sites.
Odell Beckham Jr- I can’t believe it’s 2021 and I’m writing these words but…Odell Beckham is back! This game quietly has the same O/U as the Cowboys/Panthers showdown, but isn’t getting talked about nearly as much. Beckham looked dynamic in his return from injury, and led the Browns in routes run despite it being his first game in over a year. Minnesota is bottom-five in DK points allowed to opposing WRs, and was burned by speedy playmakers such as Ja’Marr Chase and Rondale Moore already through three weeks. It’s a lock that Beckham will be much more expensive next week if he has a big game, and I want to get him at this price while we can. He is one of the top WR plays in all formats.
Jaylen Waddle- Waddle is one of my conviction plays this weekend, and someone I want to be well overweight on. People are starting to take notice, but the Dolphins have been absolutely feeding Waddle to start the season. He comes into this weekend with more targets than guys like Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill and Chris Godwin. He also has been operating primarily in the slot, and that is where we like to target this Colts defense. Waddle should see a lot of Kenny Moore, who has allowed a 118 passer rating when targeted in 2021. Jacoby Brissett targeted Waddle 13 times in Week 3, and I love him at his price tag against the Colts.
Potential Value- There is a ton of injury news we are monitoring this week, but the Titans/Jets game is a spot to really keep your eyes on. It looks like the Titans will be without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Obviously I noted above that I expect a heavy diet of King Henry…but they still are going to throw the ball. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine hauled in a touchdown last week, and should operate as the WR1 for only $3,200. You can pivot to guys like Chester Rogers in GPPs, but I do think Westbrook is in play if both are ruled out. On the Jets side, both Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith are dealing with concussions and are in jeopardy of missing this week. Braxton Berrios is leading the team in catches, and is actually in a good spot against — Tennessee is allowing the third-most DK points per game to WRs.
Favorite Pivots: Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson
Tight End
Tight End is pretty straightforward again in Week 4. Travis Kelce is far and away the top option — both in projection and price. Philly has funneled passing game usage to the middle of the field this season, and that was evident on Monday Night Football against the Cowboys. It’s a great match-up individually for Kelce and he can be used in all formats this weekend.
Noah Fant is projecting for the highest mid-tier ownership, but I actually prefer slightly more expensive options in Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee. Those two + Kelce will likely make up my TE pool this week, with some other value plays potentially getting bumped up after the Friday injury reports. Be sure to check out Final Thoughts for my updated TE pool on Friday evening.
Potential Value: Tommy Tremble
Ben’s Top Five Stacks
Kirk Cousins-Dalvin Cook-Justin Jefferson-Odell Beckham Jr
Taylor Heinicke-Terry McLaurin-Curtis Samuel-Calvin Ridley
Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk-Cooper Kupp-Robert Woods or Tyler Higbee
Sam Darnold-Chuba Hubbard-Robby Anderson-CeeDee Lamb
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
