What’s up everyone! This is my fourth season breaking down every game of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited that football is back. If you are interested in my core plays plus final thoughts cheat sheet for every main slate, you can browse our packages here. With that being said, let’s get to the analysis!
NOTE: It’s already been announced that the Titans/Steelers game will be moved to Monday or Tuesday thus not being on the main slate. The Vikings still aren’t in the building as of Thursday. Analysis for the Vikings/Texans game will be posted if we get confirmation that it will be played on Sunday as scheduled.
NOTE #2: It looks like Vikings/Texans SHOULD be good to go, I will add-in analysis after my cash game article is posted Friday night. See Bottom
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Total: 44.5
Outlook: Tied for the lowest total on the main slate, this contest between Philip Rivers and “BD” Nick Foles doesn’t inspire much confidence from a DFS perspective. The Colts are a run-first team, and will lean heavily on the ground game again in this one. Jonathan Taylor let down as chalk in Week 3, but he was nearly game-scripted out of the game by how bad the Jets are. After losing Marlon Mack, the Colts will treat their prized rookie with bubble wrap in non-close games and that’s exactly what happened. Two pick-sixes took offensive possessions away from the Colts and put the game out of reach. Only 2.5 points separate the spread between these two teams, so it’s reasonable to expect a heavy dose of Taylor on Sunday. Recency bias makes him a strong tournament play on both sites. As for the pass catchers, there are balls to be had now that both Parris Campbell and rookie Michael Pittman Jr are out. This solidifies TY Hilton’s role even further, but he is nothing more that a tournament flier.
The Bears looked predictably better on offense after Foles took over, but this will be their toughest matchup yet. Even after losing stud Safety Malik Hooker, this Colts defense is fully in the mix for title of best defensive unit in the NFL through three weeks. David Montgomery gets a huge boost with Tarik Cohen out, and we should expect him to be a near three-down back. I will be filing him into my GPP pool, along with Allen Robinson who was brought to life by Foles. Accuarcy was all Robinson needed to break out, and they should have connected for two touchdowns in Week 3.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Jonathan Taylor, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Total: 43.5
Outlook: Another relatively bad game for DFS, Chargers/Bucs ties the aforementioned game for lowest total on the main slate. The most interesting part of this game is the Bucs injuries that are piling up. Both Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette will miss this game, which provides usage bumps for both Ronald Jones and Mike Evans. LeSean McCoy will still be involved, but its hard to argue Jones as a tournament play on Sunday. He hasn’t looked particularly good in 2020, and this is a tough matchup, but this projects as a run-heavy game-script for the Bucs installed as 7.5 point favorites. Evans in particular gets a bump, he saw 10 targets in the Bucs Week 2 game sans Godwin, and has totaled just eight in the two games with him. This is a tough matchup on paper for Godwin, but Arians will easily be able to scheme him away from Casey Hayward. This Chargers defense will surely miss Chris Harris Jr this week.
Herbert looked more like what I expected from him in their Week 3 home loss, and it’s tough to get excited about him against this defense. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen will both continue to see increased usage with Herbert at quarterback. Herbert, unlike Tyrod Taylor, is comfortable dumping off to his running backs often. It’s nearly impossible to get anything going on the ground against the Bucs, which helps Ekeler but will hurt Joshua Kelley’s production and efficiency. Allen has averaged 10 targets per game with Herbert starting, and makes for a solid one-off in tournaments.
There isn’t a slam dunk cheap tight end play this week, which puts Henry firmly in play in all formats. He’s logged target totals of eight and seven in Herbert’s two starts.
I will update my thoughts on Jones in my Final Thoughts sheet posted on Saturday night.
UPDATE: Mike Williams is out, which further escalates interest in Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry.
Cash Game Pool: Mike Evans, Hunter Henry
GPP Pool: Ronald Jones, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Total: 56
Outlook: With a slate-high total of 56, this Browns/Cowboys game projects to be one of the juiciest for fantasy output. The only problem being, the Browns could be without Kareem Hunt AND Odell Beckham Jr in this contest. Hunt has yet to practice this week with a groin injury, while Beckham was added to the injury report with a back injury on Thursday. It’s never a positive when someone is added to the injury report late in the week like Beckham, and tomorrow’s practice news will be a massive piece to this slate. In the instance that Hunt misses, Chubb would enter my cash game pool. Last season he averaged four catches without Hunt in the lineup, and that would raise his floor substantially. I assume that Dallas’ offense will force the Browns into a more pass-heavy game-script, fitting with the shootout narrative. If Beckham plays, he is a great play in tournaments ranking 6th in the NFL with a 43% share of the Browns Air Yards. Landry would see a significant bump should Beckham miss, but I think he is a good play regardless. Dallas has struggled mightily in the slot all season, and this is a get-right spot for Mayfield’s favorite target.
While injury news will dictate my interest in the Browns, we know what we are getting with the Dallas Cowboys offense. Zeke Elliott is one of the top running back plays on the slate every week, he’s averaged well over 20 touches per game this season and is seeing a career-best passing game usage. His floor/ceiling is one of the highest on the slate, and he would benefit greatly from Tyron Smith returning. Dak Prescott has struggled under pressure, and the Browns have been one of the best teams in terms of rushing the passer this season. It’s not enough for me to take Dak out of my pool, but enough to bump him down to tournaments / game stacks on both sites. You can play one of the Dallas pass catchers in any lineup, as a stacking partner or as a one-off. The best matchups go to Dalton Schultz and CeeDee Lamb respectively. The Browns are horrible against tight ends, and Schultz has quietly seen eight targets per game since Blake Jarwin went down.
This is clearly one of the best games of the slate, and the Browns injury news will really dictate where I go with it for cash games. For tournaments, I would want exposure to a game stack in my three max entry.
UPDATE: It looks like the Browns will be fully healthy for Sunday. This bumps Beckham up to the top of my GPP pool and moves Chubb/Hunt to the GPP only tier. Still like Landry in tournaments as well.
Cash Game Pool: Nick Chubb (if Hunt out), Zeke Elliott, Dalton Schultz
GPP Pool: Jarvis Landry, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 47
Outlook: This is a supreme bounce-back spot for the Ravens trio that I love to pair together in tournaments. Monday Night Football showed yet again that for fantasy, and real-life, this Ravens team is built to be “frontrunners”. No matter what team they are facing, they absolutely need to get out to a lead, and that shouldn’t be a problem against this abysmal Football team that is now down multiple key defenders including Chase Young. Recency bias from that horrid showing on Monday could keep ownership in check, vaulting the Ravens to the top of my tournament ranks. I talk all the time about how I love stacking this team because we know where the ball is going, and the double-stack with Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews will be in order on Sunday. Brown still ranks top-ten in the NFL with a 36% share of the Ravens Air Yards, and the beat up Washington pass rush should allow Jackson more time to pick out his pass catchers downfield. I won’t be touching the Ravens backfield in anything other than MME, it will continue to be a nightmare for DFS throughout the season.
It’s weird that the Ravens are 13 point favorites, but the only person from this game in my cash game pool is Logan Thomas. It seems like Dwayne Haskins time as the starter is ticking, he continues to be one of the most raw prospects in the NFL and is not ready to be a winning QB just yet. Logan Thomas has barely seen 50% catchable targets from Haskins, but continues to see a top-five opportunity share at the tight end position. The Ravens have coughed up the fourth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this season, and I will confidently chase the Thomas ceiling game again in Week 4.
You can mix in some Terry McLaurin should you want in tournaments, but I personally don’t play enough lineups to get there. It’s the big three from Baltimore, and Thomas for me.
UPDATE: Steven Sims is out for Washington, and McLaurin looks like a game time decision, this furthers my already high interest in Thomas.
Cash Game Pool: Logan Thomas
GPP Pool: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Total: 52
Outlook: My personal favorite game of the weekend, it will be no secret that this profiles as a shootout with that total. Kyler Murray “let down” with three picks last week, but this is the matchup to get back on track. The Panthers have actually only given up the third-least fantasy points to QB’s this season, but that’s mainly because teams spend their time running all over them. This bodes well for Kenyan Drake, who is literally in the nut matchup. The Panthers have allowed a rushing touchdown in fourteen straight games — almost a full season — and Drake is still averaging 20 touches per game. He is one of the top running back plays on the slate, and playable in all formats on all sites.
It’s clear that when stacking Murray with someone it’s DeAndre Hopkins who still leads the NFL in targets. His 6.4 aDOT shows he’s being used like Michael Thomas in this offense, which means this is a great spot against a zone-heavy defense. I won’t be shocked if he catches 12+ balls in this spot.
I won’t be invested in any Teddy Bridgewater this week, but I will be overweight to the field one one of his pass catchers. Before we get to that, I do need to highlight Mike Davis, who is viable in all formats. I’m not sure why, but once McCaffrey went down, the Panthers started using Davis like the used CMC last season. He’s seen two eight target games over the last two weeks. The Cardinals have surrendered over 27 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs this season.
The pass catcher I was alluding to is DJ Moore, and I think this is setting up perfectly for the breakout game I have been waiting for. Second in the NFL with a 49% share of the Panthers Air Yards, and averaging eight targets per game, usage has not been the issue for Moore. He’s gotten unlucky in the TD department, and this is a much better matchup than what he saw in Week 3 against the Chargers. Robby Anderson is a viable tournament play as well, but I’m all-in on Moore on both sites this weekend.
UPDATE: DeAndre Hopkins didn’t practice on Friday, and is a GTD for Week 4. If he misses, this would bump both Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella up considerably.
Cash Game Pool: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, DJ Moore, Mike Davis
GPP Pool: DeAndre Hopkins, Robby Anderson
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Total: 54
Outlook: Despite the second-highest total on the main slate, I think this game could go under-owned as a full-stack relative to other games. Sure, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas (if in) will see high-ownership, but with other teams in smash spots the other players could get ignored. The Saints actually have given up the seventh-most DK points to opposing QB’s this season, I’m looking at you Matt Stafford. Stafford is coming off his best outing of the season after getting Kenny Golladay back, posting a 270-2 line against the Cardinals. The Saints have perennially been a more pass-funnel defense, and Stafford splits are much more positive with Golladay in the lineup. It’s likely that he will draw Marshon Lattimore’s vaunted shadow coverage, which has me focused on Marvin Jones in the stack. Jones will be ignored in DFS after his dud start to the season, but Golladay being back opens things up for him a ton and he will benefit from him being blanketed by Lattimore. Jones is notorious for multi-touchdown performances, and this could be one in an expected shootout.
Adrian Peterson is entrenched as the Lions lead back, but I will pass on him in this matchup.
It looks like Michael Thomas could be back for this game, which is huge for Drew Brees and this Saints offense. The volume will continue to be heavily concentrated between him and Alvin Kamara — and both are in smash matchups. The Lions have no pass rush whatsoever, and have given up fantasy points at a top-ten rate to both RB’s and WR’s. Brees hasn’t looked great to me in the early goings, and was brought to life in fantasy last weekend by Kamara’s YAC ability. There are other fliers on the Saints, but I prefer the guys that I know will see the ball on a big slate like this.
I’m really coming onto the Stafford-Jones-Kamara-Thomas stack in tournaments as the week goes on. If Thomas were to miss, I would bump up the likes of Tre’Quan Smith and Manny Sanders. This is a great way to get leverage with your stack, but can surround it with chalkier players like the Saints guys, and players from other popular expected shootouts.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas is OUT for Week 4, this is HUGE news. This cements Alvin Kamara as a near-lock for me, and bumps up the likes of Tre’Quan Smith, Manny Sanders and Adam Trautman in tournaments. Furthermore, Marshon Lattimore is out which bumps the matchup and my interest in Kenny Golladay.
Cash Game Pool: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
GPP Pool: Marvin Jones, Matt Stafford
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Total: 49
Outlook: This was a spot that immediately stood out to me in my early research for Week 4, and we broke it down pretty well on this week’s the Cash Process podcast. Installed as home favorite against one of the worst defensive units in the NFL…this is the breakout spot for Joe MF Burrow. Burrow ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts coming into Week 4, against a defense that’s allowing a near 80% completion rate. He also has shown the rushing upside that I wrote about preseason…he currently has more rush attempts than the likes of Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. I would go as far as calling him my favorite play on the entire slate, and I plan on being well overweight.
This is also a breakout spot for Joe Mixon. The Jaguars have actually been really good against the run so far, but as a home favorite, we should expect over 20 touches from Mixon. I like him in tournaments, and as a stacking partner with Burrow.
For traditional stacks, Tyler Boyd sticks out above the rest for me. I can’t trust AJ Green given his recent form, and Tee Higgins seems like a touchdown or bust play to me. I think both are fine in large field tournaments, but Boyd has the best matchup of the bunch. The Jags have not been good at covering the slot, and he has just two less targets than Green on the season.
With this total moving up considerably since open, I’m 100% considering a game stack and will be looking to run back my Burrow stack with DJ Chark should be be healthy enough to go. Chark is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL, and people will be off of him in tournaments since they are unsure of his health. We also can’t overlook James Robinson, who has dominated post-Fournette work for the Jags. The Bengals were clocked on the ground by the Browns, and Robinson has shown upside in the passing game as well. The Bengals are running one of the fastest offenses in the NFL, which is another reason I love this game. Minshew is also a recency bias-fueled buy in Week 4, and can be considered in DFS tournaments.
This is 100% my favorite spot on the slate the more I research. I think we see a ton of points scored, and my main GPP will be a Burrow/Bengals WR/Chark stack. I will also consider Burrow heavily in cash games.
Cash Game Pool: Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd
GPP Pool: Joe Mixon, James Robinson, Gardner Minshew, DJ Chark
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Total: 54
Outlook: That 54 O/U is one of the highest on the main slate, and we can easily project a shootout given the state of these defenses. Both the Dolphins and Seahawks are allowing fantasy points to QB’s at top-six rates. Russell Wilson continues to be freed in this new-look, more aggressive Seahawks offense. We love that the targets are extremely concentrated between Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and the double-stack is once again in play in tournaments. Miami has struggled in the slot, and that bodes well for Lockett coming off a monster triple TD game. Byron Jones is also doubtful for this game, which increases the ceiling and quality of matchup for Metcalf.
It looks like Chris Carson will miss this game for the Seahawks, and that could force Carlos Hyde into consideration in DFS. The Seahawks should be winning this game, and we could reasonably see 16-18 touches from Hyde…maybe even more. They still have Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas to take passing game work, but Hyde is affordably priced on all sites.
Ryan Fitzmagic is coming off a monster game last Thursday night against the Jags, and has everyone back in on him for DFS. He is 100% a great play in all formats, the Seahawks have been horrible against the pass and are now going to be without Jamal Adams. That being said, we have seen hot streaks from Fitz before and we’ve seen him completely bottom out after them. His floor is still relatively low, even in a smash matchup. No Adams bodes well for Mike Gesicki, who has 30% of the Fins Air Yards this season and will continue to log heavy-usage in the slot…where Seattle was torched again in Week 3 against the Cowboys. He’s one of my favorite plays in all formats. Parker is a tougher sell for me in cash games due to health concerns, but after the long week off I can’t deny his upside in this matchup.
This may be the highest-owned game on the slate, and rightfully so.
Cash Game Pool: Russ Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker
GPP Pool: Carlos Hyde, Preston Williams
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Total: 48.5
Outlook: This game has a pretty big total, but the Rams account for most of it with a monster 30.5 point implied team total. The Rams are the most run-heavy offense in the NFL through three weeks, averaging 37 rush attempts per game as a team. In a game they should be controlling, it’s hard for me to get too excited for DFS. I expect another run-heavy game plan for them, which leads us to my favorite play in this game. Enter: Darrell Henderson. Henderson was a trendy sleeper pick by many last summer, but now is shining in the absence of rookie Cam Akers. He’s run for 81 and 114 yards in his last two games, while the Giants have struggled to defend the run. Henderson is in play for me in all formats, and I love him as a correlation stack with the Rams D/ST.
If I wanted to take a shot on a pass catcher in tournaments, I would go back to Cooper Kupp who will avoid James Bradberry on the inside.
This is a full-fade spot for me with the Giants. Daniel Jones has looked miserable so far this season, and it won’t get any easier here on the road. The Rams are my favorite defense play on the slate. I also plan on being overweight to Henderson, and I hope people end up going other ways in the mid-tier at RB.
Cash Game Pool: Darrell Henderson
GPP Pool: Cooper Kupp
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas Total: 51.5
Outlook: After getting embarrassed on the road in New England, the Raiders return to their new home in Vegas to face MVP candidate Josh Allen and this high-powered Bills offense. Zack Moss is expected back for the Bills, which eliminates any interest I have in the Bills backfield as I expect a RBBC situation, with Allen a willing goal-line back. Speaking of Allen, he is one of the top QB plays again on this slate. The Raiders don’t look like they’ve been hurt by QB’s this season, but they played Teddy Bridgewater in Week 1 and the Patriots imposed their will in the run game last week. They also faced off with a washed up Drew Brees in Week 2. Allen is firmly on the tournament radar for me again, in stacks with Stefon Diggs. John Brown does look like he will be good-to-go, so you could argue that he is in play as well. Diggs has shown a strong connection with Allen in the early goings of 2020, and this Raiders secondary took another hit losing rookie Damon Arnette.
I won’t have any exposure to Derek Carr, but there are some Raiders in play with both Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs out. The first thought would be to go overweight on Darren Waller, who leads this team in targets by a wide margin. I think that Waller is a great volume-driven play, but with their linebackers back, this is not a good matchup. We saw Waller get erased by the Patriots, and I won’t be shocked if he disappoints on Sunday. The Bills allowed the third-least fantasy points to tight ends last season, and the big game they gave up this season was to Gesicki with both LB’s out…Gesicki is more of a slot receiver than a tight end. Speaking of slot receiver, this bodes well for Hunter Renfrow who is surprisingly one of my favorite plays for the price this week. He had a big game last weekend, and the Bills have been flamed in the slot all season.
Josh Jacobs isn’t at the top of my list, but I can’t argue the amount of touches he is getting. I don’t like him in games where the Raiders can easily be trailing, but at home they will be inclined to force the ball to him as much as possible.
Cash Game Pool: Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Allen
GPP Pool: Stefon Diggs, Josh Jacobs
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Total: 52.5
Outlook: We have a heck of a late game here, with Patrick Mahomes taking on the new-look Cam Newton-led Patriots. That total is no joke, and the Chiefs offense will certainly force the Pats into putting up points quickly unlike their run-heavy game plan against the Raiders last week. This sets up well for Cam Newton, who’s floor/ceiling was capped by that exact game plan. The Patriots were gashing the Raiders on the ground so bad, Newton never needed to make a big play let alone throw the ball. I will say I don’t like attacking the Chiefs defense at home, but his rushing upside puts him firmly in my tournament pool regardless. The Patriots backfield is too much of a committee for me to invest much in DFS, but I am looking at the trio of pass catchers. By trio, I mean Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Damiere Byrd. All three of them were affected by the run-heavy approach in Week 3, and we can comfortably project target totals closer to the Week 2 game against Seattle than was we saw in their last game. Harry and Byrd are particularly cheap, and can be used in all formats, though they aren’t my favorite plays as of now as one-offs.
The Chiefs offense is the same story every week…you can always stack Mahomes. I assume that Bill will prioritize taking Travis Kelce away, and they move Tyreek Hill around enough that they can get him away from Stefon Gillmore. I like Hill as a one-off in tournaments, but he isn’t at the top of my list unless I’m stacking with Mahomes at QB.
My favorite play from this game is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is under-priced due to salaries being posted before Monday Night Football. He racked up another 25 touches against the Ravens, and has been much more involved in the passing game than what we saw in Week 1. As a home favorite, we should expect another big workload and I feel like we have been seeing floor games from CEH, and haven’t tapped into the ceiling yet. At his price, he is playable in all formats, but a great pivot in tournaments off similarly priced chalk.
UPDATE: This game has been postponed, so…don’t play anyone!
Cash Game Pool: Cheap NE WRs
GPP Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Newton
Notes on Minnesota/Houston
I’m happy that this game is expected to play, because there are a number of DFS viable options within. Starting with the Houston Texans, all of Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Will Fuller, and Brandin Cooks will crack my pool one way or another. This is the best matchup they’ve had all season, and it shows how sharp DFS players have become because they won’t be secrets at all. Watson could end up pretty chalky at QB, I love the mathup and I’m buying the bounce-back, but he hasn’t been running the ball enough for me. He has under 25 rushing yards over his last two games combined, and it seems like Houston is looking to protect him by limiting designed runs. I think he is a strong play, but better suited for tournaments than cash games for me. I prefer getting up to Russ or Josh Allen, or even dropping to Burrow in my cash builds. Brandin Cooks could end up chalky on DraftKings at $4,500, and he still leads the Texans with a 27% share of the teams Air Yards. I like him in a stack with Watson, but the play that stands out to me is Will Fuller. Fuller returned to practice on Friday, and is good-to-go for this game. We have targeted the Vikings with speed all season, and Fuller should be able to do whatever he wants against this secondary. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and will be overweight to him on both sites.
The Vikings are relatively easy to break down, because we know where the volume is going. Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and to a lesser extent, Justin Jefferson. Jefferson exploded for the big game last weekend, and it’s important to remember how good he was at LSU. His ceiling is that high, and in an expected shootout we can go right back to the well in tournaments. Thielen remains a volume-driven one-off option, and has the third-highest team Air Yards share in the NFL at over 48%.
Cook had a monster game against Tennessee, and is firmly in play alongside Zeke and Kamara. He could be the top running back on the slate. The Texans have struggled to defend the run all season, and his red zone role secures his floor. I will consider him in cash games, but ultimately he may end up on my main tournament team.
Cash Game Pool: Dalvin Cook, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks
GPP Pool: Deshaun Watson, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, David Johnson
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
