Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick/DeVante Parker/Mike Gesicki
Fitzpatrick struggled against the New England Patriots in his first game of the season. but has found plenty of success over his last two games. Through 3 starts, he’s thrown for 679 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while adding 68 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. Fitzpatrick’s gunslinger mentality has always made him a boom or bust option in terms of fantasy. He gets a great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. Seattle is allowing a league-high 430.7 passing yards per game to go along with 6 passing touchdowns. They’ve also allowed 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. The Miami Dolphins are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 52.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 23 points while suggesting Fitzpatrick could be throwing from the start to the finish.
Parker hasn’t seen the volume in 2020, but he has been an extremely efficient option thus far. He’s played 73.2% of the offensive snaps, recording 14 receptions for 169 yards and 1 touchdown through 3 games. Parker has seen only 17.7% of Miami’s targets while posting 20.3% of receptions, 24.9% of receiving yards, and 25% of receiving touchdowns. He’s also recorded 24.6% of the Dolphin’s air yards, seeing 179 air yards with a 10.5 aDOT. Parker has only seen one red zone target in 2020, turning it into a two-yard touchdown. I expect him to get more involved in the red zone as the season progresses, though, as he totaled 14 targets and 5 touchdowns in the red zone last season.
Many were expecting a Gesicki breakout in 2020, but he has seen mixed results early this season. He leads Miami in targets (19), receiving yards (175), and receiving touchdowns (2) while ranking second in receptions (12). Gesicki quietly owns 30.6% of Miami’s air yards while playing 58.6% of the offensive snaps. Through 3 games, he has seen 222 air yards with an 11.7 aDOT. Gesicki is a preferred option in the red zone, as well. He owns 2 receptions for 23 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 red zone targets this season. He was also a key factor in the red zone in 2019, suggesting his role will continue. Gesicki is more or less a slot receiver for Miami, and he flashed his upside with a 30 fantasy point performance against the Buffalo Bills earlier this season.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins/Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen
Cousins enters this game with 623 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions through 3 games. He also owns 48 yards on the ground. If you exclude his second game of the season, Cousins is averaging 255 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 1.5 interceptions per game in 2020. He gets a matchup against the Houston Texans, who are only allowing 199.3 passing yards per game in 2020. Teams haven’t had to throw against them, though, as they are allowing 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt with a 6.5% touchdown rate. The Minnesota Vikings are +4.5 underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points, but they own an implied team total of 25 points this weekend.
Cook has played 70.8% of the offensive snaps this season, posting 294 yards and 4 touchdowns on 48 carries. He also added 5 receptions for 24 yards on 9 targets through the air. The Vikings haven’t been in the red zone often, but Cook has seen 50% of the red zone carries and 83.3% of the carries inside-the-5. He gets an elite matchup against Houston, who is allowing a league-high 188.3 rushing yards per game this season. They’ve also given up 3 rushing touchdowns while allowing 5.3 yards per carry. He’s the top option for Minnesota this weekend.
Thielen has found success through three games in 2020. He’s played a team-high 93% of the offensive snaps, turning 21 targets into 12 receptions for 170 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did do most of his damage with a 6/110/2 line on 8 targets in his first game, though. With that being said, Thielen ranks third in the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards (48.9%). Through 3 games, he’s seen 372 air yards with an elite 17.7 aDOT. Minnesota’s team has only seen 4 red zone targets with Thielen posting 2 receptions for 35 yards and 2 touchdowns inside-the-20. Thielen could go under-owned with Justin Jefferson dominating last week but Thielen is easily the WR1 and comes with elite upside in this matchup.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs/John Brown
Allen has been elite this season, throwing for 1,038 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 114 pass attempts. He also added 84 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground this season. Allen posted 33+ fantasy points in each of his first 3 games in 2020. He gets a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who are allowing 242.3 passing yards per game. They have only given up 3 passing touchdowns while allowing 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. The Buffalo Bills are currently -3 point favorites in a game set at 52.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 27.8 points this weekend.
Diggs has been a massive part of the offense, leading the team in targets (28), receptions (20), receiving yards (288), and receiving touchdowns (2) while playing 91% of the team’s offensive snaps. Diggs’ stats would be significantly better if not for untimely penalties, as well. Diggs has recorded 30.1% of the Buffalo’s air yards this season. He’s seen 286 air yards with a 10.2 aDOT in 2020. He owns 3 receptions for 23 yards and 1 touchdown on a team-high 5 red zone targets, as well. Diggs has posted 15+ fantasy points in each of his 3 games this season while flashing 30+ fantasy point upside.
Brown struggled last week but exited the game early with a calf injury. He’s currently practicing, suggesting he’ll play this weekend. In his first 2 games of the season, he posted 10 receptions for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 targets. Overall, Brown has seen 28.1% of Buffalo’s air yards in 2020, recording 266 air yards with an impressive 14.8 aDOT. He has also turned his 3 red zone targets into 2 receptions for 22 yards and 1 touchdown. Brown’s struggles in 47% of the snaps last week will likely keep his ownership down, but he quietly posted 19 and 18.2 fantasy points in his first 2 games of the season. If Brown is unable to suit up this week, Cole Beasley can be considered for this stack. If Zack Moss is ruled out, Devin Singletary will make the third stacking option with Diggs over Brown and Beasley.
StatHero
The most important note for StatHero is their scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points.
Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense.
The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ starts at.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott/Amari Cooper/Dalton Schultz
Once again, I’m going with the Dallas Cowboys on StatHero. Prescott has looked elite this season, totaling 1,188 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions through 3 weeks. He owns 74 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Prescott gets a great matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing 253.7 passing yards per game. They have also given up 8 passing touchdowns with 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt. The Cowboys are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 56 points, and they feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 30.3 points.
Cooper has been the top receiving threat for Dallas. He owns a 25% target share, totaling 25 receptions for 267 yards on 35 targets. He ranks second on the team, playing 88.1% of the offensive snaps. Cooper has seen 32.1% of Dallas’ air yards in 2020. His 9.8 aDOT doesn’t stand out, but he does boast 343 air yards through 3 games. The most shocking part of Cooper’s season is that he has only seen one red zone target, failing to score. He’s the clear WR1 for Dallas, making him an elite stacking option with Prescott.
Schultz has found early success in 2020, recording 14 receptions for 147 yards and 1 touchdown on 20 targets through 3 games. Schultz has taken over for the injured Blake Jarwin, finding 10.5% of Dallas’ air yards. He only owns a 5.6 aDOT, allowing him to be efficient with his 112 air yards this season. Schultz makes such an elite option because of the matchup. Cleveland has given up a 20/176/3 line to tight ends this season. There are a number of elite options for Dallas, but I’m taking a stand with Schultz in this stack.
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