Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick continues to be a boom or bust option for the Miami Dolphins. Through 3 games, he owns 679 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 97 pass attempts. He’s also added 68 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. Fitzpatrick continues his gunslinger mentality, posting a 4.1% touchdown rate and a 3.1% interception rate in 2020.
He struggled with 8.44 fantasy points in his opening game against the New England Patriots, but bounced back with 27.32 and 25.2 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars. He has a solid supporting cast with DeVante Parker acting as his WR1. Mike Gesicki has taken a step forward, more or less playing as a slot receiver in 2020. In addition, Myles Gaskin and Isaiah Ford have more or less come out of nowhere to offer more threats in the offense. Surprisingly, Preston Williams has struggled this season, although I don’t expect his 35.7% catch rate to continue. The major concern for Fitzpatrick is Tua Tagovailoa waiting to take over for the veteran. I expect the veteran to throw well enough in an elite matchup this week to play the entire game.
Fitzpatrick gets a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend. They’re allowing a league-high 430.7 passing yards per game, while also allowing 6 passing touchdowns through 3 games. Furthermore, Seattle is allowing 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt while getting pressure on only 22.4% of snaps. The Seahawks have given up a league-high 934 air yards on completions to go along with 476 yards after the catch on completions. Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger at quarterback, and will be taking shots throughout this game. He’s also a +6.5 underdog in a game set at 54 points, suggesting he’ll be forced to throw for all four quarters.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has struggled a bit through three games for the Indianapolis Colts. He’s totaled 182 yards and 2 touchdowns on 48 carries. Most importantly, Taylor ranks fourth in the NFL with 13 red zone carries this season. He has been a receiving threat for Philip Rivers as well, recording 9 receptions for 79 yards on 9 targets thus far.
Taylor has only seen 47.8% of the offensive snaps, although that number is a bit misleading. He saw 67% of the offensive snaps during a Week 2 win against the Minnesota Vikings. He played behind Marlon Mack before his injury the first week of the season while seeing limited snaps in a blowout win against the New York Jets last week. Overall, Taylor has seen 57.1% of the running back carries and 33.3% of the running back targets. He has handled the majority of the red zone work, adding to his upside on any given slate.
Taylor gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Bears this weekend. They rank 17th in the NFL, allowing 119.0 rushing yards per game this season. With that being said, they’re also allowing 5.0 yards per carry while giving up 4 rushing touchdowns through 3 games. The Colts are a 2.5 point favorite in this game set at 43.5 points. They only feature an implied team total of 23 points, but the line suggests Indianapolis will rely on Taylor throughout the entire game. He’s been a volume option, scoring 22 fantasy points in the only game he played a major role in. With Mack out and Nyheim Hines back in his receiving role, Taylor should be thrust into a major workload. This makes him an elite option on a week he may go overlooked.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Henderson has seen his role grow through each of the first 3 weeks, totaling 201 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries. He’s added 3 receptions for 46 yards on 6 targets, as well. Henderson has seen 10 red zone carries in 2020. More importantly, he owns 4 carries inside-the-5, including a one-yard touchdown against the Buffalo bills last week.
Henderson has only played 32.2% of the offensive snaps this season. His offensive snaps have increased from 7% in Week 1 to 42% in Week 2 to 49% last week. He benefited from injuries to Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown, but was the clear-cut lead option with Brown healthy last week. Over the last 2 weeks, Henderson has seen 32 carries for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s a player that had high hopes for last season, but quickly soured after he struggled as a rookie.
Henderson gets a matchup against the New York Giants, who are allowing 123.0 rushing yards per game. They have also given up 3 rushing touchdowns this season, although they have held opposing running backs to only 3.8 yards per carry. Henderson should see positive game script in this game. The Los Angeles Rams are a 13 point favorite in this game set at 47.5 points, giving the Rams an implied team total of 30.3 points. They will likely feature the majority of the second half running out the clock. Akers hasn’t been ruled out yet this week but it likely won’t matter. Sean McVay has stated that he wants to ride the hot hand at running back, and that’s clearly Henderson. There’s also very little reason to play an injured Akers as such large favorites this weekend.
Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker
Parker has looked good through 3 weeks in 2020, recording 14 receptions for 169 yards and 1 touchdown on 17 targets. He hasn’t seen a ton of volume thus far, but has been an extremely efficient option. Parker has only seen one red zone target this season, scoring a two-yard touchdown. He has seen 179 air yards and a 10.5 aDOT through 3 games. Overall, he’s recorded 24.6% of Miami’s air yards thus far.
Parker has played 73.2% of the Miami Dolphins offensive snaps in 2020, trailing only Preston Williams at 76.8%. Parker has only seen a 17.7% target share this season, although I don’t expect Myles Gaskin and Isaiah Ford to continue to steal targets at their current rate. Parker has been the most efficient option, accounting for 20.3% of Miami’s receptions, 24.9% of their receiving yards, and 25% of their receiving touchdowns. It’s only a matter of time before he’s peppered with targets, similarly to last season.
Parker gets a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who are allowing 430.7 passing yards per game in 2020. That’s nearly 100 passing yards more than the Atlanta Falcons, who rank second. Seattle’s secondary has given up air yards and yards after the catch, allowing for multiple ways to beat their defense. Parker has flashed in 2020, scoring 16.3 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills. That was his only game with more than five targets, although he only saw eight in that game. He recorded 10+ targets in 43.8% of his games last season, and I expect him to start finding more targets with Preston Williams struggling. Parker is an elite pairing with Fitzpatrick on this slate.
Cooper Kupp
Kupp struggled in his first game of the season but has performed well since. Through 3 games, he boasts 18 receptions for 228 yards and 1 touchdown. He also has 2 carries for 19 yards. The Los Angeles Rams have spread out their red zone targets but Kupp owns a team-high 2, scoring a 16 yards touchdown. He also boasts 21.7% of Los Angeles’ air yards, recording 109 air yards with a 5.2 aDOT in 2020.
Kupp ranks second on the team behind Robert Woods in offensive snaps plays (86.7%). He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while ranking second in receiving touchdowns. He’s a player that that tends to see the field regardless of the score, although he’s coming off of a 9/107/1 line on 10 targets in a close game against the Buffalo Bills last weekend. The biggest concern here is that the Rams are -13 point favorites in a game set at 48.5 points. While they have a 30.8 implied team total, Kupp could struggle if he doesn’t find success early in this game.
Kupp gets a great matchup against the New York Giants. They’re only allowing 234.7 passing yards per game in 2020 but they have given up 6 passing touchdowns. They have also allowed 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt. In other words, their yards per game is only great because teams haven’t had to throw against them. Kupp will get a specific match up against Darnay Holmes, who has struggled in the slot for New York this season. He’s a player that will go overlooked because of Los Angeles being such a large favorite but he should find early success in this match up. Kupp certainly comes with too much risk for cash games but he’s an elite GPP option on this slate.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz
Schultz has stepped up in a major way for the Dallas Cowboys this season. He’s seen 20 targets, turning them into 14 receptions for 147 yards and 1 touchdown. Schultz has also posted a team-high 4 red zone targets in 2020. He recorded 2 receptions for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns inside-the-20.
Schultz has played 68.6% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s seen an uptick in opportunities after the injury to Blake Jarwin, though. In 2 full games, Schultz has posted 13 receptions for 136 yards and 1 touchdown on 16 targets. He’s only seen 10.6% of Dallas’ air yards but his 5.6 aDOT has allowed him to stay efficient. His 36.4% red zone target share this season makes him an appealing option in one of the best matchups for tight ends on any slate.
Schultz gets a matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing 253.7 passing yards per game this season. They’ve also given up 8 passing touchdowns in 2020. Most importantly, they have struggled to contain tight ends, allowing Mark Andrews, C.J. Uzomah and Drew Sample, and Logan Thomas to combine for 20 receptions, 176 yards, and 3 touchdowns in 3 games. I expect most to either pay up or pay down at tight end, causing Schultz to go overlooked on this slate.
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