Welcome in to a new year of Ben’s NFL DFS Building Blocks for DraftKings and FanDuel! In this article, I will highlight my favorite NFL DFS plays at each position for small-field tournament formats. If you’re interested in signing up for premium access, which grants you Core Plays for every slate, projections, Final Thoughts player pool + expert picks and our premium Discord click HERE. You can also sign up for our plethora of AI-driven sports betting tools and access to my weekly betting card by clicking HERE. Let’s get into the plays…
Quarterback
Highest pOWN% QB’s: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith
My Conviction Plays: Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson
As I said on this week’s first look video, it appears we are going through a bit of a DFS renaissance. When I first started creating content around eight or nine years ago, spending down at Quarterback was a super viable strategy in DFS cash games and GPPs. It allowed you to spend up on high value positional players, raising the overall floor of your lineup without sacrificing much ceiling – unless someone went for a nut game of 350+ passing yards and three or four touchdowns. Then we entered a period of time, starting with the arrival of MVP Lamar Jackson, where spending down at QB was asinine. Not only did you sacrifice a massive ceiling, but the majority of these athletic mobile QB’s had a legit passing ceiling as well. This season, that hasn’t been the case. It’s only two weeks, but it’s critical to be able to adjust and be ahead of the curve when it comes to this format of fantasy football and these teams just aren’t passing as much as they used to right now. Much has been made in recent days about Two High Safety coverage, and while the usage of Cover 2 is at an all-time high…that’s just one piece of the pie. Given that we are in uncharted territory that we haven’t been in for seemingly 4+ years, the majority of my QB and stack interest this week comes from cheaper QB’s.
Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray still stick out as the optimal cash plays, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for dropping down even in those formats. Hurts looked like Hurts for the first time since his SB loss to the Chiefs last week, in my opinion, and it’s important to remember he was playing injured for the majority of last season. Murray has been cooking to begin the season, and looks to be back to his former self as well especially with his legs. I expect the Lions pass rush to give him fits on Sunday, but he still possesses one of the best floor/ceiling combos on the slate in the only game with a 50 total.
I really am going to live in the $5K tier for my tournament builds this weekend. Starting with Derek Carr, who is far and away my favorite play on the slate. I know that Carr has a negative reputation, but it’s important to remember that this was once an MVP candidate at the NFL-level. I pointed out in last weeks article that there’s a chance this Saints offense is really that good now under Klint Kubiak and that’s why I was so interested in the Saints/Cowboys game. I was unfortunately on the wrong side of the game, but is anyone doubting me now? Philadelphia made a ton of moves to address their defensive woes this offseason but they have not translated on the field yet. They’re allowing the seventh-highest Y/A through two weeks and have faced Jordan Love and what we thought was the corpse of Kirk Cousins. They have really struggled to defend play-action passing — and the Saints have become the biggest play-action utilizer in the league under Kubiak. Overall, Carr as seen 0 push-back from any opponent thanks the Saints multiple blowout wins which means we haven’t seen him be pushed to even have to throw the ball in the second-half. If we get that this week, 300-3 ceiling is there and I want to take advantage of this match-up.
Gardner Minshew is another great play for this price, fitting the category of things I never thought I’d be writing two months ago. While teams are skewing more run-heavy than ever, the Raiders are not following suit. They’ve been one of the pass-heaviest teams especially in neutral game script this season and he suddenly has multiple weapons to utilize with the emergence of Brock Bowers. Sharp money came pouring in on the over in this game once the news broke that Bryce Young would be benched and the match-up is strong against one of the worst defenses in football.
Ryan Grubb is exactly who we thought he was calling plays for the Seahawks, there are just pace concerns in this game with the Dolphins now turning to Skylar Thompson at QB.
Deshaun Watson has not looked the part on the field, but he’s not been horrible when it comes to fantasy football. I loved seeing a designed carry on the GL for him last week, something I think can remain sticky while they deal with the absence of Nick Chubb. Cleveland wants to play fast and if we get them on a game where their offense is humming I think several of their players will outperform their price-tags.
Running Back
Highest pOWN% RB’s: Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, Alvin Kamara, Cam Akers, De’Von Achane
My Conviction Plays: Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Jordan Mason, Jahmyr Gibbs, Cam Akers, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery
Once again, the chalk is great at RB this week given that these guys are all too cheap for their roles. Jordan Mason and Zach Charbonnet will both see nearly all the RB touches for their respective teams, they both have a monopoly on GL action as well and are both on teams favored to win. Cam Akers seems thin, but with no Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce he will dominate the RB work as well. Dare Ogunbowale may see receiving down or two minute work, but Akers is sub-$5K and the starting running back for a high-powered NFL offense, no need to overthink these things.
Alvin Kamara has been red-hot to start the season, and is viable in all formats. He can be used in Derek Carr stacks as well, just be mindful of how you’re building teams when it comes to using multiple high-owned players.
If you have ready any of my content this season, you know how high I was coming into the season on De’Von Achane and it feels good to get some confirmation bias in terms of how he’s been used. I think we could see a really high-volume role here with Skylar Thompson at QB, and that could lead to 5+ catches as well. He mainly lines up in the slot when running routes, and Seattle’s weak point on defense has been slot coverage this season. He’s expensive enough that the ownership will be held in check, and I like mini-stacking him with a Seahawks pass catcher.
For tournaments, I love looking at the DET guys here as a more unique way to play this high total. We saw DET implement a run-heavy game plan against the Rams in Week 1 and I think the same could be done here, especially given Goff’s struggles to start the year. As Matt pointed out to me — Jahmyr Gibbs ranks tied for first in the league in both red zone targets, and receptions. He hasn’t caught a touchdown yet and the big game could be looming this weekend…
I think Saquon Barkley is a great run-back for Saints stacks — not only does he own a huge ceiling that we saw in Week 1, but if he ends up scoring two TD’s he essentially knocks out the Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith teams given that both of them need TD’s to reach their true ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Highest pOWN% WR’s: DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers, Jauan Jennings, Chris Olave, Diontae Johnson
My Conviction Plays: Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Stefon Diggs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, Jordan Whittington, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Davante Adams
This position feels exactly like it did last week, with the mid-tier being absolutely loaded. There are a few value plays that I’m interested in for larger-field stuff, but this $5-7K tier is so stacked on DraftKings I almost want to completely forego the cheap tier and just windmill dunk four of these guys into my lineup. Another reason spending down at QB can be useful…
Overall, I think a lot of the chalk is genuinely good this week. Brandon Aiyuk is a smash vs a bad defense with no George Kittle, Deebo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey. Chris Godwin is tied for second in the league (more on that later) in receptions and will continue to operate a high-value role for Baker Mayfield in the slot while Mike Evans deals with Pat Surtain coverage on the outside. Malik Nabers has accounted for around 40% of the Giants team targets through two weeks and it’s clear they are completely running the offense through him (as I thought). He’s ranked top-ten in the league in separation-metrics against man-coverage this season and now sees one of the man-heaviest teams in the NFL. DeVonta Smith has been a target hog for Jalen Hurts this season, and can continue to ascend into a more volume-heavy role sans AJ Brown.
All of these guys are objectively good plays, and that was just the tip of the iceberg. As I noted, I really want to focus on roster construction this week and I want to live in this $5-7K tier at WR in all my builds while focusing on my stacks.
Given that Derek Carr is my favorite QB — Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed check in as my favorite WR plays. Olave has ran bad in the touchdown department for well over a year now and I really think the floodgates are about to open. Shaheed has been placed in a new role this season, and has a much higher floor while still possessing that big play ceiling we’ve seen twice already this season.
Nobody is touching Stefon Diggs in DFS this week, because he is more expensive than every player I just named and is next to both Nico Collins and Tank Dell who are projecting for moderate ownership. I’m going to be greedy when others are fearful here and play Diggs as my main Texans pass catcher exposure. Minnesota is top of the league in blitzes and QB Pressures and we know that’s what they want to do under Brian Flores. Diggs could operate a high-value role over the middle of the field for CJ Stroud this week given the scheme, similar to how Deebo Samuel performed last week. I also think they could scheme up even more quick looks for him, as an extension of the run game, with Joe Mixon sidelined. It’s an objectively good spot for him and he already has three targets inside the 10 yard-line this season. It’s also worth noting, this is his first return to Minnesota since being traded to the Bills in 2020…
Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be used in all formats coming off a 16 target game. He has the preferred match-up among the Seahawks pass catchers and should continue to ascend. It’s very likely this is the cheapest he is in DFS for the remainder of the season.
Jordan Whittington is my preferred mini-stack with the 49ers players this week, and I think he could very well lead this team in targets. He came in for Kupp last week, and played every snap in the second-half while he also profiles similar to Puka Nacua in that they can scheme some rush attempts for him. He’s the one value play I really like this week.
Tight End
Highest pOWN% TE’s: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, Colby Parkinson
My Conviction Plays: Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Eric Saubert
Per usual, TE is straightforward for small-field builds with Trey McBride and Brock Bowers (the more on that later is that Bowers is who is tied with Godwin for the second most receptions) soaking up a majority of the ownership, followed by Jake Ferguson. This is a weird week for me, given that I think Bowers is the clear top play on the slate. Typically, in years past I have punted TE or spent all the way up, but given how TE has played out this season there are no true spend-ups on the slate. As I noted in last weeks article, Bowers is essentially the best TE prospect of all-time and he’s wasted no time acclimating to the NFL. His stat-line could be even larger, as he was tackled at the one yard line vs BAL last week. I’m 100% willing to bet on talent here in one of the few pass-heavy offenses to begin the season.
After Bowers, I’ll likely use TE to fill out my stacks which is typically one of my preferred roster building methods. Dallas Goedert in particular appears to be going overlooked, and he fits in well with my Saints stacks. He hasn’t done much to begin the season, but he will continue to run a route on nearly every Hurts’ dropback and can play a role in the red zone with AJ Brown sidelined. I like the uniqueness of this build – a large% of Saints stacks will have Smith in their lineup as well, and if he scores a touchdown he can rival the more expensive TE options in raw points.
Eric Saubert is only projecting for around 5.5 points, but I’m always interested in a complete punt at TE. He’s viable in all formats for me.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
