What’s up everyone! This is my fourth season breaking down every game of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited that football is back. If you are interested in my core plays + final thoughts cheat sheet for every main slate, you can browse our packages here. With that being said, let’s get to the analysis!
Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: A low 44 O/U and touchdown spread keeps this game towards the bottom of my overall DFS interest in Week 3. Yes, you read that correctly. The Cleveland Browns are seven point favorites. When was the last time that happened? While I don’t know the answer to that question, I do know that the expected game-script bodes well for both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The problem with these two is, they are both involved enough that my interest is almost always going to be tournaments only. I don’t play enough teams to get to one of these guys, but if I was MME’ing I would want exposure to both any time they are favored like this. The Washington Football Team have shown pass-funnel tendencies through two weeks, which will keep both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry in my tournament pool. Both can be used as leverage lineup fillers in otherwise chalky game stacks.
This is a pretty bad spot for the Football Team (lol) traveling to Cleveland who is coming off a long weekend after playing last Thursday night. The Browns have the fourth-most QB Pressures in the NFL through two games, and Washington’s pass protection has been sketchy at best. One of my favorite plays on the slate, however, does come from this team and it’s our man Logan Thomas. He logged even more snaps last week than in Week 1, and has the second-most targets at his position. The Browns should get Mack Wilson back this weekend, but they are still devoid of linebackers and TE’s will continue to feast over the middle of the field all season long.
Terry McLaurin carved up Patrick Peterson in Week 2 for over 100 yards and a touchdown, and is tournament viable seeing as Denzel Ward doesn’t shadow. Don’t get me wrong, he will still see heavy Ward coverage, but Scott Turner will be able to move him around and free him up. He is still too cheap for me on all sites.
Cash Game Pool: Logan Thomas
GPP Pool: Terry McLaurin, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: This is one of my favorite spots on the slate for DFS, and also my favorite spot for betting. I’m not shocked that the market is over-rating the Las Vegas Raiders after a 2-0 start, and it’s something I plan on taking advantage of. The spread is down to Patriots -5, and that is my absolute favorite bet of the week. Fitting with the bet, the Patriots are also one of my favorite DFS stacks, especially in tournaments where I think they will come in relatively low-owned. There are other games more attractive from a pace perspective, but the Patriots have exactly what I like in my tournament stacks. A small amount of options. There’s an extremely consolidated target share between Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry, and both are great tournament plays for me on Sunday. Edelman in particular is being used completely different this season, than in year’s past. This is another thing I plan to take advantage of before DFS players catch on. Cam Newton has essentially been operating as the Patriots QB and RB, and he is one of my favorite tournament plays on the slate.
Short week, traveling cross-country for a 1 PM EST game, with a Quarterback that has never faired well vs this team? Yeah, it’s a fade spot for me with the Raiders. Darren Waller has been the clear number one for this Raiders offense again this season, but only the 49ers and Colts have allowed less fantasy points to Tight Ends than the Patriots this season. We know that Bill will try to scheme the top option out of the game, and I just can’t make a strong case for anyone on this offense this week. I think they get absolutely blitzed, and I will be stacking Cam with Julian Edelman in my 3 max entry contests. I will also be overweight on the Pats D/ST.
Cash Game Pool: Cam Newton
GPP Pool: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry
Los Angeles Rams @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: Aside from the Patriots stack, this is far and away my favorite tournament spot on the slate and I think we have some very sneaky shootout potential in Buffalo. The Bills are playing at one of the fastest-paces in the NFL, and while the Rams defense has held opposing Quarterback’s down thus far, it’s hard to argue how Josh Allen has looked. I’ve been overweight to him in the first two weeks, and I don’t expect his ownership to rise above the usual 5-6% in this matchup despite a 400 yard passing day last weekend against the Dolphins. Brian Daboll is is beautifully executing the art of play-calling, and focusing on more play-action which is aiding Allen’s breakout through the air. Both John Brown and Stefon Diggs will see coverage from Jalen Ramsey throughout the game, so there is no clear-cut choice in a stack with Allen. I always seem to lean Diggs, but Brown reminded us of his big-play ability with a long touchdown to win the game in Miami.
I will be avoiding the running backs due to the time share between Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, and the likelihood that Allen runs one in close regardless.
If the Bills put up points, which Vegas expects them to do, we could see some more passing out of Jared Goff. The Rams have been a primarily run-first offense this season, which makes sense considering Jared Goff leading the NFL in pass attempts last year was a recipe for disaster. Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers are both banged up, which increases the potential for a more pass-heavy game plan out of Sean McVay. This also vaults Darrell Henderson into the tournament pool, after topping the century mark on the ground against the Eagles.
I expect Robert Woods to see all the Tre White coverage he can handle on Sunday, which leads me to Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee as run-back candidates in a Bills stack. The Bills should still be missing two linebackers in Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano, and they were flamed in the middle of the field by the Dolphins last week. I will be stacking this game on one of my main tournament teams.
Cash Game Pool: None (as of now)
GPP Pool: Josh Allen, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Tyler Higbee
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Vegas Total: 41
Outlook: The weekend’s lowest total isn’t going to render much DFS interest, but I actually won’t be shocked if we see more points put up than we initially think. Nick Mullens actually played well the last time we saw him get actual run (2018), but the 49ers are so banged up that it probably won’t matter. If he was stepping into a fully healthy team I would have some tournament interest, but there’s just not enough weapons around him to get me excited when I can play anyone I want from any team. Beat reporters expect Jeff Wilson to get the lion’s share of the RB carries, which does put him in my tournament pool at the minimum price of $4,000 on DraftKings. Jerick McKinnon will see a nice bump as well if George Kittle misses again, he should see more targets and we know that he is an extremely explosive athlete. If Kittle does end up playing, I actually wouldn’t mind some GPP exposure seeing as everyone would be fading due to fear of injury.
On the Giants side, they will be without both Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard…yikes! No Barkley *could* mean more early down pass attempts for Daniel Jones, but we are unsure of how much newly signed Devonta Freeman will see the field. Dion Lewis is the better back on a full-PPR site like DK, but you can do much better on this slate in my opinion. Jones does have rushing upside, and the 49ers defense is so banged up I think he can put up a respectable fantasy score in Week 3. He’s not at the top of my tournament list, but I wouldn’t mind some exposure if playing 20+ teams. I lean Golden Tate over Evan Engram in a stack or as a one-off, noting that San Fran has been dominant thus far in Tight End coverage.
Cash Game Pool: None (as of now)
GPP Pool: Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, Golden Tate, Daniel Jones
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: The more I researched this game, the more interested I became in a Steelers stack in my 3 or 5 max entry contests. If I had any confidence whatsoever in the Texans putting up points against this defense, I would be all-in. This Steelers defense has the most QB Pressures (40) and second-most sacks (10) this season. Deshaun Watson has once again been under siege weekly, and I expect the Steelers to be in his face early and often on Sunday afternoon. David Johnson is a full-fade for me against this defense, despite what Melvin Gordon was able to do in Week 2. The only Texans player I am interested in is Will Fuller, in a run-back with a Steelers stack. I think Pittsburgh rolls here, and am even considering their D/ST in FanDuel cash games.
To my surprise, Ben Roethlisberger looks fully healthy and has topped 21 DraftKings points in both of his first two games. This is his best matchup to date, at home against a burnable Texans secondary. He is climbing up my tournament ranks as we head into the weekend. Diontae has picked up where he left off in 2019, leading the Steelers in targets in each of the first two weeks, and finding the end zone against the Broncos. He is still priced below $6,000 this week, which gives him a high ceiling and floor in this elite matchup. JuJu Smith-Schuster is firmly in play for tournaments, and will feature much less ownership than Johnson on both sites.
James Conner returned to lead-back duties in Week 2, and looked much healthier than he did on Monday night against the Giants. I don’t currently have any exposure to him, but as a big home favorite he is in play in tournaments. The Texans have allowed 25 fantasy points per game through two weeks to opposing running backs.
Cash Game Pool: Diontae Johnson
GPP Pool: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Will Fuller
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 48.5
Outlook: I was shocked seeing that this game has a 48.5 O/U, I just don’t see how this game reaches that total. The under would be my bet here, and that moves it down my board a good bit for Daily Fantasy. Ryan Tannehill was a model of efficiency again in Week 2 throwing for four touchdowns on just 24 pass attempts. He was extremely efficient last season as well, but I just can’t bank on that type of touchdown equity each week. This clearly sets up as a Derrick Henry game once again, only Dallas and Cincinnati have faced more rushing attempts than the Vikings through two weeks. Despite 56 rush attempts this season, Henry has yet to find the box…I anticipate that changing in Week 3.
I cannot bank on this Vikings offense whatsoever. They play slow, and worry more about grinding out the clock than they do scoring points or winning football games. Dalvin Cook remains a weekly buy in GPPs for me due to his red zone role — only Clyde Edwards-Helaire has more attempts inside the five than Cook this season. Thielen is also a strong one-off after a down Week 2. Bales pointed out on the podcast, no WR owns a higher % of his teams Air Yards than Thielen at 53%.
Note: You can go back to Corey Davis or Jonnu Smith without AJ Brown again, but I’m going to be overweight to Henry and will likely have minimal passing game exposure to the Titans with the other games on this slate.
Cash Game Pool: Derrick Henry
GPP Pool: Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: I prefer the BUF/LAR game, but Cincy/Philly is another game with sneaky shootout potential, and an encouraging 46 O/U. Joe Burrow has looked the part of a number one pick in his first two NFL tests, but it’s worth noting he ranks dead-last in the NFL with just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. His ability to scramble and pick up chunk yardage with his legs adds to his floor and ceiling, and keeps him in play as a fringe DFS option on a loaded main slate. This is a tough matchup for Joe Mixon, who did get more involved in the passing game against the Browns but is a tough sell for me at his price as under-dogs against the Eagles front seven. AJ Green is probably the most peculiar case on the main slate. He is cheap, and his role in this offense has been undeniable. He is clearly Burrow’s go-to, ranking 8th in the NFL in targets and seeing 43% of the Bengals Air Yards. He has been extremely inefficient, and done basically nothing with the usage. He has gotten unlucky with touchdowns, however, but looks absolutely washed when you watch him play. I think he is tournament playable given that type of volume, but I can’t feel super confident in him.
This is a get-right spot at home for the Eagles at home against one of the worst defensive units in the NFL. Carson Wentz hilariously fell victim to crowd-noise boo birds in their Week 2 home loss to the Rams, but this sets up as his best matchup of the season. The Eagles offensive line has struggled mightily with injuries, and the Bengals have been unable to rush the passer in 2020. I like Wentz in tournaments, and I think he comes in massively under-owned.
The best play on the Eagles, and one of the top overall plays on the slate, is none other than Miles Sanders. Like I predicted prior to the season, Sanders eased any injuries concerns and was given bellcow level usage in his first game of 2020. He saw 20 rushing attempts, and a whopping seven targets. That target total could even increase, with rookie Jalen Reagor out due to an injured thumb. Sanders is not priced for his role in this matchup, and will be one of my highest-owned players in Week 3.
Reagor’s absence will be a big boost to DeSean Jackson, who will have a stranglehold on the deep targets in Philly for the time being. He is expensive on DraftKings, which should hopefully keep his ownership low in tournaments. Both Tight Ends will be in play weekly, and the presence of one another will keep price and ownership down weekly. Jackson will be the one to benefit from the lack of a Bengals pass rush, and is my preferred stack with Wentz.
Cash Game Pool: Miles Sanders
GPP Pool: Carson Wentz, DeSean Jackson, PHI TE’s, AJ Green
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: What figures to be a more popular game than it seems on the surface, much of this analysis will hinge on whether or not Julio Jones — who missed practice again on Thursday — is able to suit up and play. I will personally be avoiding the the running games here, I never play Todd Gurley and the strength of the Falcons defense has been against the run. David Montgomery is someone else I rarely play in DFS, due to his lack of upside in terms of targets.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to Quarterback’s this season than the Atlanta Falcons. which thrusts Mitchell Trubisky into my tournament pool on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is best deployed in stacks with Allen Robinson, who is in one of the best bounce-back spots possible against this Falcons secondary. The usage has been there for ARob through two weeks, 18 targets, but he has seen under 50% catchable targets. I can’t assume that Trubisky improves accuracy wise this week, but the matchup is so good I will be looking to be overweight on Robinson on both sites.
Note: Keep an eye on Darnell Mooney who replaced Anthony Miller last week, he is min-price on DraftKings.
For the Falcons, they have an extremely consolidated target share between Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and even Russell Gage. Ridley leads the team and this position in red zone targets, and would become the top-overall WR play on the slate should Jones be unable to suit up in this game. All of the Falcons pass catchers are in play for me in GPPs, but we just need to wait and see if Jones can go as we head into the weekend.
Cash Game Pool: Calvin Ridley
GPP Pool: Allen Robinson, Mitch Trubisky, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: The afternoon slate of games kicks off with what should be a Colts beat down against the worst team in the NFL…Adam Gase’s New York Jets. They failed to do anything at home against a 49ers defense missing several key players, and I can’t have any confidence in them here on the road. LaMichael Perine looked good in limited work behind Frank Gore, but I will literally be full-fading this team. Matt made a huge observation on last week’s Game Theory podcast noting how much they deployed Chris Herndon as a blocker, and that carried over into Sunday against San Francisco. Even without Jamison Crowder, I’m not putting one Jets player in my pool on Sunday.
With the Colts being such lopsided favorites, it sets up as a smash spot for rookie bellcow Jonathan Taylor. Taylor was force fed 12 touches on the Colts opening drive a week ago, and winded up posting a 26-101-1 line on the ground. We should expect more of the same this week against a hapless defense that was carved up by Raheem Mostert before getting injured in Week 2. Taylor is my favorite running back play on this entire slate, and I will be overweight in all formats.
I don’t want to go after any pass catchers in this game in cash games, but all of TY Hilton, Mo Alie-Cox and Zach Pascal are viable GPP one-offs. Pascal will take over for Parris Campbell in the slot, and Alie-Cox benefits from a matchup with a weak linebacker corps. Jordan Reed rolled out of bed and scored two touchdowns vs this team in Week 2 on limited snaps. Hilton has been extremely unlucky this season, and we often like him at home. I would prefer a shootout-type game, but it won’t shock me if one of these three has a big game on Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: Jonathan Taylor
GPP Pool: TY Hilton, Mo Alie-Cox, Zach Pascal
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: This is one of the more interesting games this weekend, with a rookie Quarterback in an obvious smash spot against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I’m a fan of Teddy Bridgewater in real life, but he was held in check by the Buccaneers defense in Week 2 and this Chargers defense even did their part in limiting Patrick Mahomes. Their offense will also be missing a key weapon in Christian McCaffrey, and I’ll be curious to see if his absence leads to an even more pass-heavy approach by Joe Brady. DJ Moore is my favorite Panthers play on this slate, and it’s only a matter of time before we get an explosion game from him. He ranks top-five with a 47.5% share of the Panthers total Air Yards, and that comes with 11 targets per game. Tyreek Hill was able to pop off for a long touchdown late in their game last Sunday, and Moore is good enough to find his way into my pool weekly. Mike Davis will replace Christian McCaffrey, and he came in and saw eight targets in relief of him against the Bucs. I actually think Davis could be good, but it’s not a great matchup and there are other RB’s I prefer in his price range.
One of those backs happens to be Joshua Kelley, who is under-priced on all sites despite a big workload to start 2020. Kelley is averaging over 17 carries per game this season through two games, and is installed as a decent-sized home favorite. The Panthers have picked up where they left off in 2019, already allowing six touchdowns on the ground. Justin Herbert breathed life back into Austin Ekeler’s fantasy outlook, and he is firmly in play for tournaments in this strong of a matchup. I do, however, prefer Kelley.
Speaking of Herbert, I wasn’t high on him at all coming out of Oregon but he looked the part coming in cold before the game and nearly taking down the reigning Super Bowl champions. He also flashed rushing upside, which isn’t a fluke seeing as he is hyper-athletic. I’m not sure how fast-paced I expect the Chargers to run in this game, but I do think Herbert is GPP-viable given the matchup.
The obvious stack candidates are Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They both own over 30% of the teams total Air Yards, and I would probably lean slightly towards Williams just because he is cheaper. Both are solid plays in a stack or as a one-off.
Cash Game Pool: Joshua Kelley
GPP Pool: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Mike Davis
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Total: 54.5
Outlook: With a massive 54.5 O/U, this game projects to be one of the highest-owned in all formats. Kyler Murray went off for 286-1 and 67-2 on the ground as chalk last week, and this is another prime spot. The Lions have been unable to pressure opposing Quarterback’s early on, and their more man-heavy scheme bodes well for a QB with the rushing ability and speed as Murray. The Lions fourth-worst mark in QB Pressures (12) cements Murray as one of the top QB plays in all formats. The Lions have also coughed up the third-most fantasy points to running backs (small sample) setting up a get-right spot for Kenyan Drake. He’s under-priced on both sites due to his slow start to 2020, but installed as a big home favorite against a non-existent run-defense is the time to go overweight to him in DFS. DeAndre Hopkins still leads the NFL in targets after two weeks, and should feast against a still banged up Lions secondary. Christian Kirk missed practice early this week, so we need to monitor that news. If he were to miss, not only would it bump up Hopkins already gaudy projection, but it could open some value in an expected shootout. We know where the volume is going on this Cardinals team, so we don’t need to overthink things.
This Cardinals offense is so explosive and playing so fast, it will put the opposing team in play for stacks weekly as well. Stafford was one of my favorite value Quarterback picks in season long leagues, and he gets a big bump with his alpha WR Kenny Golladay returning for this game. We don’t need to worry about Pat Peterson coverage after he was flamed by Terry McLaurin for over 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Stafford to Golladay stacks are firmly on the radar for my 3 max entry builds and he is my preferred run-back in a Murray stack. I won’t discount Marvin Jones as a leverage play in tournaments, however, people will definitely be off him after his first two weeks but he always seems to score touchdowns in bunches. He’s the definition of a boom/bust tournament play weekly, and he actually might benefit from Golladay returning and drawing attention. TJ Hockenson doesn’t get on the field enough for me to consider in cash games, but he dominated this defense last season and does have a ceiling at his price in this game environment.
I don’t want to mess too much with the cloudy Lions backfield, but if I’m playing a lot of teams, I don’t mind a shot on D’Andre Swift. He has been the leader of the RBBC thus far in snaps, and 10 targets through two weeks provides upside.
Cash Game Pool: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake
GPP Pool: Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Total: 43.5
Outlook: With some really attractive spots for fantasy purposes, this 43.5 O/U just isn’t moving the needle much for me. The Broncos were already one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL, and they left Week 2 losing Courtland Sutton and Dre’Mont Jones. I would be interested in this game if I had any hope of the Broncos putting up points, but I think the Bucs boast one of the best defense in the NFL. Given how banged up Denver is on defense, I think the trio of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette are viable one-off tournament plays. This Broncos secondary sorely missed AJ Bouye last week, after getting burnt by all of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Godwin in particular should be really low-owned after he missed last weeks game. Fournette took commanding control of this backfield in that win over the Panthers, and I don’t anticipate him letting it up. The cream always rises to the top.
On the Broncos side, I don’t think they will find much success in this matchup, but I also don’t think Jeff Driskel is that big of a drop off from Drew Lock. Melvin Gordon will continue to dominate work without Phillip Lindsay, but the matchup is tough enough for me to look the other way…even after a good game against Pittsburgh. The interesting play for me in this game is rookie KJ Hamler, priced at the minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings. Hamler led the team in targets from Driskel with seven, and is one of the most explosive players in the NFL. Best comparable to Desean Jackson per PlayerProfiler, Hamler wasn’t able to run at combine, but showed in Week 2 why there are rumors he’s faster than Tyreek Hill. He can’t hurt much at the min-price, and I do think he is playable in all formats as a punt. Jerry Jeudy will be asked to do more in the absence of Courtland Sutton, but there are too many guys in his price range for me to get to him in Week 3.
Cash Game Pool: KJ Hamler (DK Punt)
GPP Pool: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Noah Fant
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Total: 55.5
Outlook: Similar to Arizona/Detroit, this game will feature heavy-ownership across both cash games and tournaments. Already sitting at a 55.5 O/U, it won’t be a shock to see this one shoot out given what these two teams have done through the first two weeks of the season. I don’t need to fully explain this, most of you know with that type of O/U that most of the players in this game are going to be viable in all formats. I would want some exposure to this game on at least 90% of the lineups I build in Week 3. Both QB’s are in play for me in all formats, and choosing between them will be a tough choice. Prescott showed last week that his floor is legitimate, he won’t run three touchdowns in every week but he was able to bring them back after a horrid start to the game. The Seahawks continue to let Russ cook, throwing much more on first and second down than we’ve ever seen. Wilson’s ceiling is something we’ve never experienced in Seattle, and this season may finally show us what he really can do.
Despite Seattle being one of the top run defenses so far in 2020, Zeke is an easy play for me in all formats. He’s logging over 90% of the snaps for the Cowboys, and has usage in the passing game that we haven’t yet seen from him in years past. Like I said above, he won’t get trolled by three close rushing TD’s from Dak every week and his red zone usage continues to be off the charts. Chris Carson is the interesting GPP pivot in this game. He also has been much more involved in the passing game this season, but is projected for sub-10% ownership in an expected shootout.
The beautiful thing about the Seahawks passing game is that we know there the ball is going — and that’s Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Lockett continues to be one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL, and Metcalf can’t stop scoring touchdowns. I like both in cash games, with an early lean towards Lockett on DraftKings and Metcalf on FanDuel.
As for the Cowboys, you can make a strong case for all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Cooper has been extremely consistent in their first two games, and Lamb looks like the best receiver from his class in a small sample size. The Hawks have been burned in the slot multiple times already, which sets up perfectly for a CeeDee Lamb explosion. Gallup would be the leverage play, projecting for much less ownership than the other two. Like I said, all three can be played, but I’m looking to be all-in on Lamb again this week at his price on both sites.
Cash Game Pool: Dak Prescott, Russ Wilson, Zeke Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf
GPP Pool: Chris Carson, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
