Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson/D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett
The Seahawks are finally letting Wilson throw on early downs early in the game and he has looked elite through two games. He’s totaled 610 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception while completing 52 of 63 pass attempts. Wilson boasts a ridiculous 14.3% touchdown rate and 11.8 adjusted yards per attempts in 2020. He’s added 68 yards on the ground for good measure, as well. Wilson’s numbers are bound to normalize at some point but he gets a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. Dallas is allowing 268 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game in 2020. They are also allowing 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt. The Cowboys also allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns while completing 67% of his passes last week.
Metcalf was expected to break out this season and it seems that has already begun. Through 2 games, he owns 8 receptions for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 targets while playing 99.2% of the team’s offensive snaps. Metcalf has seen a 23.3% target share for Seattle this season, although he has seen 48.6% of their air yards. Overall, he has seen 199 air yards with a 14.2 aDOT this season. The most surprising part about Metcalf’s success is that he has yet to see a red zone target. He’s a big-bodied receiver that has proven he can attack the ball at it’s highest point. It’s only a matter of time before he becomes a major factor in the red zone but until then, we’re relying heavily on his elite deep play ability.
The Seahawks offense is spread out quite a bit, leaving a few options to be considered when stacking with Wilson. Lockett is the next best option, though, and on a level playing field with Metcalf this week. Lockett has played 94.4% of Seattle’s offensive snaps, seeing 26.7% of the Seahawk’s target share and 36.1% of air yards. Lockett has only seen a 9.2 aDOT but that has allowed him to stay efficient, turning 16 targets into 15 receptions for 159 yards and 1 touchdown. Lockett has recorded a pair of red zone targets on the season, scoring his only touchdown inside-the-20. Neither receiver in this stack has shown their ceiling, though. Metcalf and Lockett are averaging 19.4 and 18.5 fantasy points without eclipsing 100 receiving yards in a game, adding to their upside with the DraftKings bonus.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray/Kenyan Drake/DeAndre Hopkins
Murray has completed 52 of 78 passes in 2020, recording 516 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He’s been an elite fantasy option because of his legs, though, as he’s added 158 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Murray has recorded 33% of Arizona’s red zone rushing attempts in 2020. He gets a matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are only allowing 221.5 passing yards per game. With that being said, they are allowing 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They have also given up 5 passing touchdowns and rank third last in the NFL with a 7.6% touchdown rate through the air.
Drake is the focal point of the backfield, playing 67.9% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s posted 146 yards and 1 touchdown on 36 carries while adding 4 receptions for 14 yards through the air. Drake has seen 80% of the running back carries while recording 55.6% of all red zone carries. He isn’t as involved in the passing attack as his talent would suggest he should be but this is an elite matchup. Detroit is allowing a league-high 204 rushing yards per game while giving up a league-high 6.5 rushing yards per attempt. They have only given up a pair of rushing touchdowns but that is likely to change if teams continue to run at this rate against them.
There were questions about Hopkins changing teams but he’s eliminated any doubt through the first two weeks. He’s playing 95.6% of the snaps while leading the NFL with 25 targets. Hopkins has turned his 35.2% target share into 22 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdown. Surprisingly, he’s only seen 148 air yards with a 5.9 aDOT, accounting for only 27.9% of Arizona’s total air yards. His short aDOT has allowed him to be extremely efficient, though. Through a pair of games, Hopkins has only seen one red zone target, turning it into a touchdown. With that being said, the Cardinals only have three red zone targets and I expect Hopkins to be featured more inside-the-20 as they see more opportunities.
New England Patriots
Cam Newton/Julian Edelman/N’Keal Harry
Newton looks rejuvenated through 2 weeks, throwing for 552 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 63 pass attempts. More importantly, he’s added 122 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground this season. Newton will continue to make an elite touchdown threat, as he ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone rush attempts (11). He gets an eite matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who are allowing 285.5 passing yards per game in 2020. They have only allowed two passing touchdowns but could struggle after playing on Monday night and traveling to the East coast this season.
Edelman is a clear focal point of the offense, recording a 29% target share while playing only 65.4% of the snaps. He’s seen 221 air yards with a 12.3 aDOT to go along with 50.3% of the Patriots air yards on the season. Edelman has turned his team-high 18 targets into 13 receptions for 236 yards, although he has yet to score a touchdown. He’s also added 1 rush attempt for 23 yards. Unsurprisingly, Edelman has been a major target in the red zone, posting a team-high three red zone targets this season. He has struggled to produce with them but it’s impossible to ignore the opportunity. Edelman isn’t a dink-and-dunk receiver in this new Patriots offense, adding to his upside on any given week.
The other focal point of the New England passing attack has been Harry. He’s played 82.4% of the offensive snaps while seeing a 29% target share although he’s only seen 21.7% of the team’s air yards. Overall, Harry has seen 95 air yards with a low 5.3 aDOT. That hasn’t stopped him from finding success, though, as he owns 13 receptions for 111 yards on 18 targets in 2020. Harry is also tied with Edelman for a team-high 3 red zone targets, turning those into 3 receptions for 24 yards, although he has yet to find the end zone. Harry’s inability to make plays downfield limits his true upside but his volume and efficiency due to his short routes make him a viable option for only $4.2K on DraftKings. This stack gives you the red zone threats for New England in a great spot where they’re bound to go overlooked.
StatHero
The most important note for StatHero is their scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points.
Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense.
The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ starts at.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Amari Cooper
Prescott is coming off of an elite performance against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s thrown for 716 yards and 2 touchdowns on 86 pass attempts in 2020. He also added 48 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground this season. Prescott gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who are allowing a league-high 415.5 passing yards per game this season. They’ve also allowed 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt. Surprisingly, Seattle has only allowed three passing touchdowns this season.
Elliott has been the workhorse this season, playing 90.3% of the offensive snaps. He owns 185 yards and 2 touchdowns on 44 carries while adding 9 receptions for 63 yards and 1 touchdown on 11 targets through the air. Elliott leads the NFL with 12 red zone carries this season while adding a pair of red zone targets, scoring once inside-the-20 through the air. The Seahawks have only allowed 69.5 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry this season. They have yet to play a running back like Elliott, though, and I’m expecting him to continue to find success this weekend.
Cooper has proven to be the clear-cut WR1 for Dallas. He’s played 92.9% of the offensive snaps, posting 16 receptions for 181 yards on 23 targets. Cooper’s seen 36.3% of Dallas’ air yards, recording 228 air yards with a 9.9 aDOT. He hasn’t been a red zone factor this season, though, failing to capitalize on his only target. Dallas features an offense with a number of elite options, making them the perfect stack for StatHero.
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