Welcome to the NFL DFS Slate Breakdown! This is a new article I will be writing this season, offering my favorite plays position-by-position. I will be discussing my top cash game plays, GPP targets, pivots and stacks! This article will also feature data tables produced by Sam Scherman, that I use heavily in my decision making each week. If you’re a fan of my content (thank you) I highly recommend purchasing access to my Core Plays for both main slates and showdown, and joining our FREE Discord!
Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live NFL Trends
Quarterback
Kyler Murray- Last week in this article, I detailed how it wasn’t long ago everyone in the DFS universe was windmill dunking Murray into their lineups week after week during his injuries in the 2020 season. He responded by dropping a cool 35 DK points on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, despite just 20 rushing yards. Murray, in this fast-paced offense, is a near cheat code for fantasy goodness and will continue to be so long as he remains healthy. He not only owns the highest median projection per our Projections Portal, but the highest ceiling as well. He is at least $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings, and is a tough fade for me in Week 2.
Justin Herbert/Dak Prescott- This is the game of the slate, sporting a massive 54.5 O/U that has jumped four points since open. These two account for nearly 25% of the projected ownership at this position and I do believe they will be the two highest-owned options, though ownership is not typically a massive factor at QB. While I think Dak Prescott is a smash play week in and week out, I can’t see myself getting off of Herbert. It looks likely that Dallas will be without Randy Gregory in addition to DeMarcus Lawrence on Sunday. This revamped Chargers o-line allowed the least amount of pressure in Week 1, against the fearsome front of the Washington Football Team. Now, they catch the Cowboys without their best pass rushers? Another factor is Herbert’s red zone usage — tying the league lead for carries inside the 10 after one Sunday of football. Their 29 point team total is third-highest on the slate, and I view Herbert as the number one play at this position this week.
Russell Wilson- Wilson was hyper-efficient in his first game under new OC Shane Waldron, completing 18 of 23 passes for 254 yards and four touchdowns. He draws an even better match-up in Week 2 against the reeling Tennessee Titans, who allowed over 8 yards per pass attempt to Kyler Murray in Week 1. Wilson is a top tournament play for me every week, especially when we know where the volume is going…DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Pivot: Jalen Hurts- Last week I detailed the upside Hurts has on the ground, and he responded with another 7-62 line on the ground in a game that he was basically not needed to do anything in the second half. Despite being the highest-owned QB last week and crushing, Hurts is projected outside the top-five currently in early ownership projections. It appears that San Francisco could be without their top two corners in this match-up — Jason Verrett is on IR, and Emmanuel Moseley has yet to practice this week. We know that Hurts can provide a floor of 5-6 points on the ground, but he particularly impressed me throwing the ball last Sunday. This new 49ers defense is actually similar scheme-wise to what Hurts saw last weekend in Atlanta, and I think fading Hurts could be the number one regret people have on Sunday evening. He is my favorite GPP play on the entire slate.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey- Not much needs to be said about CMC, who comes in as the highest-priced player after getting fed 30 touches in Week 1. We know who Christian McCaffrey is, and we know that he is going to be this type of bellcow usage weekly. Some may be scared off by the near $10K price tag, but I personally view that as at least $1,000 too little. He dropped in 27 DK points vs the Jets, despite not finding the end zone and being stopped one yard short of the 100 yard rushing bonus. The red zone usage was there, and I will be forcing him into my cash game lineup.
Najee Harris- Harris is your chalk special this week — installed as a near touchdown home favorite over the Raiders on short rest. The hot button news nugget this week has been Harris’ astounding 100% snap share in Week 1, and it proves how sharp the industry has gotten. While there are still edges to exploit when it comes to ownership, especially in football, people are no longer scared off by low fantasy points in game logs. Everything sets up well here, he has a clear workhorse role, and is great in the passing game. He is clearly mispriced and that’s why the ownership will be so out of control. I am comfortable eating chalk at RB in tournaments, but Harris still profiles better in cash games than GPPs outside of game stacks this weekend.
Zeke Elliott- There are other mid-tier RB’s projecting for higher ownership than Zeke this week, but I can’t see overlooking him in cash games and single entry formats. As I noted above, this is the premier game of the week, and Elliott comes in way cheaper than we are accustomed to at $6,200 on DraftKings. Sure, he disappointed in Week 1…but it’s one game, and the toughest match-up he will see all season. He still looked good to me at his lighter than usual weight, and I believe he is going to have a bigger role in the red zone this weekend. End of day, you don’t have to play him GPPs but I will take exposure to this game for this price every day in my optimal lineup.
Pivot: Nick Chubb- Chubb was discussed at length on this weeks video, and is a fantastic play as a double digit home favorite. This is someone that NEVER gets played on DraftKings due to “lack of pass catching upside” despite catching more balls than Najee Harris last week. I was encouraged by his usage vs KC, including a league-leading four carries inside the 10 yard line. Cleveland’s offensive line vs Houston’s defensive line is the biggest mismatch in the trenches on the slate, and Chubb should have plenty of opportunity to rip off big plays on Sunday.
Other Options: David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Eli Mitchell
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams- The top-tier of WR is absolutely loaded on this slate, and I’m simply not going to break everyone down everyone that is in play at this position. There are so many high-upside plays, I’m starting with the Chargers given my affinity for their QB on this slate. I’m not a huge prop bets = fantasy analysis guy, but it’s noteworthy that Herbert’s prop on DKSB is north of 300 yards. I feel strongly about him smashing this weekend, and we have a decently concentrated target share here with Allen and Williams leading the way. Allen needs no introduction — maybe the most underrated WR in football and a perennial PPR machine. Williams on the other hand doesn’t have the same reputation as a “consistent” option, but the upside has always been in plain sight. He turned in a 8-82-1 line in Week 1, and is primed for a breakout season if he can stay healthy. If the Chargers line continues to block like they did vs WAS, Herbert will have plenty of time for Williams’ routes to develop and I think there’s a great chance of that happening on Sunday. Dallas let Antonio Brown get loose for multiple big plays in Week 1, and I think this very well could be Mike Williams week in DFS.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper- And…if we love this game we are going to be interested in the other side as well. Michael Gallup is out for this game, further heightening my interest in both of these receivers. My top takeaway from the Cowboys/Bucs shootout was that CeeDee Lamb was no longer the primary slot receiver, and they ended up seeing a pretty even number of slot routes. This creates a more volatile week-to-week outlook for their ceilings, but increases my interest in both for GPPs. Dallas defense looked as bad as it did in 2020, and we know that these two will have huge roles regardless of game-script.
Jakobi Meyers- Meyers was featured in this article last week and I’m going back to the well in Week 2 against the Jets. I was thoroughly impressed by Mac Jones (aka Baby Brady) commandment of the offense in Week 1, and Meyers solidified himself as Jones’ top target. He played virtually the entire game in the slot, a position that we knew Jones would feel comfortable throwing to due to his success at Alabama. Meyers led the team in targets and I can already tell this is someone I will continue to play weekly while cheap.
DeVonta Smith- Given my interest in Hurts this week, I’m sure you figured the “Slim Reaper” write up was coming in this section. Not only do I love Smith in a stack with Hurts, I think he is 100% viable as a one-off in other builds as well. Smith’s release off the line of scrimmage very well might be top-five in the NFL already, and I believe we are still getting him at a major discount on DFS sites. He was very clearly the Eagles WR1 in Week 1, logging just under 90% of the offensive snaps and commanding eight targets from his former college QB.
Ja’Marr Chase- Chase posted a 5-101-1 line in his NFL debut, but the sites have been slow to adjust his price and he stands out as a clear value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Obviously it’s only one game, but the thing that stuck out to me most on Sunday Night Football last week was the Bears allowing two touchdowns over 50+ yards. I made a mental note of the big play success vs them, and sure enough, that’s who Chase draws here. Chase is a big play waiting to happen on the field, and is arguably the top value play on the slate in Week 2.
Pivot: Brandin Cooks- With my pivot at RB being Nick Chubb — I’m opting with a mini correlation play of Brandin Cooks at WR. Cooks is projecting for sub-5% ownership despite a solid 21 fantasy point Week 1.
Tight End
Noah Fant- Fant is popping both as a value and high-owned play this Sunday against Jacksonville. One of the most athletic Tight Ends in football, looked to benefit from the change to Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Fant drew over 20% of Bridgewater’s total targets in their Week 1 game, a number that could spike even more with Jerry Jeudy out. As you’ll notice in the chart above, we have him with the highest non-spend up ceiling on the Week 2 slate at this position.
I’m confidently playing Fant on both sites in cash games this weekend. Outside of him, Tyler Higbee is the top point per dollar option, though I clearly prefer Fant in that range. My favorite tournament play is Rob Gronkowski, who is close enough in price to Fant/Higbee that he will likely be ignored despite breaking the showdown slate last Thursday night. My top punt here would be Adam Trautman, who I believe can be used in all formats.
Ben’s Top Five Stacks
Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Mike Williams + CeeDee Lamb
Russ Wilson + DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett + AJ Brown
Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins + Rondale Moore + Justin Jefferson
Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith + Deebo Samuel (or Aiyuk)
Ben Roethlisberger + Diontae Johnson + Chase Claypool + Darren Waller
Top Correlation Plays
Nick Chubb + Brandin Cooks
Elijah Mitchell + DeVonta Smith
David Montgomery + Ja’Marr Chase
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
