Welcome in to a new year of Ben’s NFL DFS Building Blocks for DraftKings and FanDuel! In this article, I will highlight my favorite NFL DFS plays at each position for small-field tournament formats. If you’re interested in signing up for premium access, which grants you Core Plays for every slate, projections, Final Thoughts player pool + expert picks and our premium Discord click HERE. You can also sign up for our plethora of AI-driven sports betting tools and access to my weekly betting card by clicking HERE. Let’s get into the plays…
Quarterback
Highest pOWN% QB’s: Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray
My Conviction Plays: Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones
Historically, I love the Week 2 slate’s because the theme is always “overreaction”. Everyone is overreacting to what happened in Week 1 and it creates interesting edges to exploit across all contest types. That being said, the pricing on DraftKings this week is so bad that you can basically play whoever you want. This is going to force an extremely chalky build in both cash games and single entry tournaments and it’s going to expand my player pool. I’m interested in a larger number of players this week, given that there’s one clear build that users will be playing. I’ll encourage you to be very mindful of roster construction this week. If you’re playing Jordan Mason, be mindful of who else is on your team and what % of Jordan Mason teams will also have those players…
Patrick Mahomes is a great play this week in a home game featuring a 48 total. He’s trending as the highest-owned QB on the slate, however, which makes me less interested in him for GPPs. Mahomes doesn’t have the rushing floor that others have, so when he’s chalk he basically has to net you 300-3 to pay off. I’m less inclined to bet on that outcome. I love him in cash games, but will likely be underweight in tournaments. Jayden Daniels is a bit trickier, because he does have that rushing upside.
Dak Prescott is one of my favorite options this week, and it doesn’t look like he will be catching much ownership. Dallas has one of the highest team totals on the board at over 26 points, and the match-up looks great on paper. New Orleans is very banged up coming into this game and could be missing star CB Marshon Lattimore as well. Prescott didn’t look great last week, but it was a road game vs one of the best defenses in the NFL + he lost a possession due to a kick return TD. He went nuclear in JerryWorld last season — posting a 22:3 TD:INT ratio at home compared to a 14:6 mark on the road. New Orleans is installing a new offense for the first time since 2006 — and there’s reason to believe this game could shoot out. I love CeeDee Lamb this week, and if he has a big game it’s likely that Dak is coming along with him.
Kyler Murray is catching some ownership here due to the game sporting a 47.5 total. I was on Murray last week and he started the game on fire, but fizzled out in the second-half. I like him just as well this week, and he can be used in all formats. I’m a bit worried that it could be more of a James Conner game again – but his upside is worth buying into especially when other pieces of the game are strong.
Anthony Richardson was one of the highest-owned plays on the slate last week, but now nobody wants to roster him after a monster game? The game environment vs Malik Willis isn’t good, and he’s on the road, but with his ceiling does it really matter? We’ve seen rushing QB’s in the past really excel in games they get to play from in front — Lamar Jackson comes to mind in recent years — and that should be the case for Richardson here. In my opinion, he’s exactly the type of player I want to buy into at lower own% so he is once again at the top of my board.
Jared Goff is in an insanely good spot at home vs the Bucs. Tampa has been a pass-funnel defense for multiple seasons now, and they’re going to be down multiple starters in the secondary for this game. These teams faced twice last year — resulting in 350-2 and 290-2 lines for Goff. Ben Johnson has proven to be one of the best schemers in the NFL, and I’m expecting him to take advantage of this banged up secondary through the air on Sunday.
Fields/Jones fit the mold of guys with rushing upside that are popping for pretty low-ownership thus they make my pool. I’ve had this weird gut feeling all week that Fields is going to rush for 100 yards, the problem is that there’s really nobody to stack him with outside of George Pickens who has a tough match-up. As for Jones, this is make or break. If he sucks this week, we very well could see Drew Lock next week. The good news, it’s the best possible match-up and he has a dynamic playmaker in Malik Nabers who can make him look good. I will have some small exposure to him this week.
Running Back
Highest pOWN% RB’s: Breece Hall, Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, JK Dobbins, Jahmyr Gibbs
My Conviction Plays: Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, Jahmry Gibbs, James Conner, Isiah Pacheco, JK Dobbins, Zach Charbonnet
The RB pool this week is even more clear than it was in Week 1, due to the CMC situation. If that game was on Sunday instead of Monday, Mason would be over $1k more expensive but unfortunately that’s not the case. All of the highest-owned plays at RB this week are what I feel are good chalk. I don’t need to tell you why Jordan Mason or Kyren Williams are good plays when they have the best possible roles in fantasy football. I will hearken back to my earlier point to be mindful of how you play them together. A large % of teams in single entry contests that have Jordan Mason will also have one of Kyren Williams or Breece Hall. A large % of Patrick Mahomes teams will have Jordan Mason, etc. Of all the chalk RB plays this week, Breece Hall is my least favorite. It’s not that I don’t like Hall, but I much prefer the expensive WR’s to him at this ownership. Hall is in my cash game pool, but I won’t be playing him in tournaments given the expected game environment and the tough on-paper match-up.
My favorite RB’s for GPP’s this week are Isiah Pacheco and JK Dobbins. Pacheco is in a fantastic spot as a sizable home favorite vs a bad run defense. There were major concerns for this Cincy run defense coming into the season with DJ Reader departing for Detroit. They allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to go 25-120 vs them in Week 1, and Pacheco will have just as good of a role as Stevenson. He handled over 70% of the work vs BAL, and played nearly 80% of the snaps. The role was everything we desired from Pacheco, and he provides you with natural leverage off the highest-owned QB on the slate. I have little faith in Cincinnati right now, and if this game is slower/grosser than expected that just plays into Pacheco’s hand. For what it’s worth, Pacheco creamed them for 18-130 last season.
Dobbins is the clear lead-man of the Chagers backfield, and now they draw the lowly Panthers in what should be positive game-script. Carolina is going to get dominated in the trenches of this game, and on a more normal week with less-loose pricing Dobbins would be way higher-owned. I’ll be taking advantage of that in my tournament builds.
Both Kyren Williams and James Conner are top plays for me this week, as well. Roster construction will be huge for me, but I have no issues playing them in a chalkier build with a low-owned QB/WR stack. Conner is my favorite mini-stack partner with Kupp, as well.
Wide Receiver
Highest pOWN% WR’s: Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Andrei Iosivas, Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson
My Conviction Plays: CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, Andrei Iosivas
Similar to RB, there are some clear misprices at the WR position that’s going to force ownership that way. Cooper Kupp without Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel without CMC and Rashee Rice will all be extremely chalky. I think all are great plays, and can be fit in around less-chalky stacks. I like the idea of playing Kupp + Kyren together on a less-owned stack soaking up all the points from the Rams. This is something I did last week with the Dolphins, pairing Achane and Hill together in small-field. I wouldn’t be looking to play Mason with Deebo — given that Deebo has so much value as a runner. They feel negatively correlated to me, and it would be an either or situation for them this weekend. I couldn’t be higher on Rashee Rice this season, and you know this if you read my season-long article. His role in this offense is so good, and he is much closer to a $7.5K player in my opinion. He is going to be high-owned, but I like him in all formats and will look to have him or Pacheco on all of my teams this week.
The big guys for me this week are CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers. I discussed above how much I love Dak this week, and Lamb goes hand in hand with him. I think he’s a top play regardless, but his match-up will only improve if Lattimore gets ruled out. Much like Dak, Lamb posted monster home/road splits a season ago averaging 9-119 at home in Dallas across 8 games.
This is the launching pad game for Malik Nabers. He looked great in Week 1 on the field, and easily led the team in receiving yards. I talked about how bad this Washington secondary is last week in my Mike Evans blurb, and that carries over to this week. Nabers is going to have no issues getting open, and it’s just going to come down to Jones getting him he ball. I’m willing to bet on talent here, and it’s actually a good thing he had a middling game last week or he would be projecting for 10% higher ownership. He doesn’t even need to be stacked with anyone given that he can go nuts without the game following suit.
Chris Olave has a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative this week, and he can be stacked with Dak/Lamb along with Rashid Shaheed. I’m still buying in that this Saints offense can be good, and I think they could make it a point to get Olave the ball early on Sunday.
Jameson Williams looked exactly like the reports from training camp in Week 1, and he is my favorite stack with Goff. Over a 30% target share vs the Rams and was the first-read on a number of looks. He also hit 21 MPH in game speed and looked for the first time like he did at Alabama. I’m expecting Amon-Ra St. Brown to be more involved this game, especially early on, but Williams should be higher priced and you can even double them up with Goff in small-field contests.
Tight End
Highest pOWN% TE’s: Colby Parkinson, Jordan Akins, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride
My Conviction Plays: Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Brock Bowers, Colby Parkinson, Jordan Akins
Coming off a terrible TE week, we have multiple sparkling value plays on both sites.
Both Parkinson and Akins should be near every down players for their respective teams, and can be used in all formats. Parkinson is the clear cash game option, but I have no issues with either of them this week.
Outside of the obvious values, there is major reasoning to go back to Trey McBride in one of the premier games on the slate. His box score doesn’t tell the full story of his Week 1 involvement, like his near 30% target share on Murray’s drop-backs. He remains in the elite category when it comes to TE usage and he’s my preferred stacking partner with Murray. Los Angeles struggled with TE coverage last season.
Andrews is the one that I think will go most overlooked, coming off a primetime game in which the entire world was talking about him being cooked/washed. Isaiah Likely had an elite role vs KC, but Andrews still ran three more routes than him. It was clear that KC was game-planning for Andrews and it’s worth noting he has long struggled vs them. Overall, I’m not pressing the panic button yet and we may see 1% ownership here vs LV.
Bowers is one of the best TE prospects in the history of the NFL and looked fully healthy in Week 1. He can be paired in a mini-stack with Derrick Henry or used as a one-off in larger-field tournaments. It’s noteworthy that he out-targeted Davante Adams in his NFL debut…
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
