What’s up Karma Nation and welcome into my second game-by-game breakdown of the season. This is my third season doing this article, so if you’ve read it before welcome back, and if you’r new, grab a seat! I will also be covering cash games for both FanDuel and Draftkings on Fridays, and doing an NFL Final Thoughts cheat sheet each week as well…let’s get it!
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 25.5, Redskins 21
Quarterback- Dak Prescott posted one of the best fantasy games of Week 1 against the Giants, partially due to the beautifully executed game-plan of Cowboys new OC Kellen Moore. Moore featured plenty of play-action and pre-snap motion, and it was refreshing to watch and something that I didn’t really consider to be a big enough factor heading into the first week of football. Prescott should have no issues replicating that Week 1 performance against the Redskins who surrendered 313 yards and 3 touchdowns to Carson Wentz in Week 1. Prescott is a lock-and-load tournament option on the Week 2 Main Slate, who should come in under-owned once again.
The Redskins surprised some people in Week 1 jumping out to a quick lead against the Eagles before ultimately giving it back in the second-half. Despite the promising start for the Skins, we are simply just biding time until Dwayne Haskins overtakes Keenum for the starting job and I will not be targeting Keenum in DFS — he seemingly could be benched at any moment if he starts a game out poorly.
Running Back- Zeke Elliott was on pace to smash his pre-set limit of 20-25 snaps had the Cowboys not been blowing out the Giants, and I think he is right back as one of the top Running Back plays on the slate this week. He will continue to get more involved in the offense moving forward, and the Redskins allowed well over 100 rushing yards to Eagles backs last week. People forget how high his floor got from his involvement in the passing game last season as well, and while I can’t put him ahead of Alvin Kamara on this slate, I do have him one spot ahead of Saquon Barkley.
Promising youngster Derrius Guice went down with another knee injury in Week 1 for the Redskins, and it looks like they will be without him for the foreseeable future. That will leave Adrian Peterson to actually be active this week, and it should bump up the volume for Chris Thompson as well. I’m not super interested in AP in DFS, but Thompson’s 10 targets from Keenum last week was great to see, and the should be trailing in this one. If you’re looking to run back a Cowboys stack, CT is right there with Terry McLaurin as the top option.
Pass Catchers- This Redskins secondary was dog-walked by DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery last week, setting up as another smash spot for Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Redskins star CB Josh Norman built off a dreadful 2018 allowing over 90 yards in Week 1 per Pro Football Focus, which bodes well for Cooper who should see him for the bulk of this game. I love both Cooper and Gallup in tournaments this weekend, and I think you can use either of them as one-offs without having Dak Prescott at QB.
The star of the Redskins preseason — Terry McLaurin — made good on the hype playing over 90% of the snaps in Week 1 and posting a monster 5-125-1 line. We can’t count on that weekly from him, but his fantasy value will only improve once Dwayne Haskins — noted deep ball thrower — takes over at Quarterback and his speed will put him in play weekly for DFS tournaments.
Cash Game Options: Ezekiel Elliott
GPP Options: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Terry McLaurin, Vernon Davis
My Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Texans 26, Jaguars 17
Quarterback- Nick Foles time as the Jaguars starting QB didn’t last long, as he broke his collarbone in Week 1 which forced the Jags to send in rookie Gardner Minshew. Minshew actually looked really good, once a promising Quarterback prospect out of Washington State, I wasn’t shocked to see him excel in a garbage time setting, hitting Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley for touchdowns once the game was already out of hand. I won’t be playing him in DFS, but given his punt price-tag I could see people having interest in an attempt to jam in multiple studs on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson survived an injury scare en route to a huge fantasy game on Monday night against the Saints, and he did simply what Deshaun Watson does. I was extremely high on Watson for fantasy purposes coming into the season, but the glaring concern was that even with the addition of Laremy Tunsil, the Texans offensive line didn’t look any better than in year’s past. This is obviously a tough matchup with the Jaguars, but I will keep Watson in my GPP pool due to his upside alone weekly.
Running Back- There are too many good spots for Running Back this week for me to be interested in Duke Johnson or Carlos Hyde outside of a flier, but we are able to target Leonard Fournette once again in tournaments. Our speculations that Fournette would end up as one of the chalkiest RB plays in Week 1 came true, and even though he didn’t have a huge fantasy day there are reasons to be encouraged. Fournette dominated the usage in the Jags backfield, saw give targets, and rarely left the field. This Texans defense looks like it’s going to be super attackable from a DFS POV again this season, especially now that Jadeveon Clowney is in Seattle. Fournette is not the same type of player as Alvin Kamara, but both Kamara and Latavius Murray found success in this matchup last week which should put Fournette at the top of our tournament list in Week 2.
Pass Catchers- Nuk Hopkins dominated Monday night with 13 targets, and he has routinely smoked Jalen Ramsey in past meetings with the Jaguars. If you’re looking for a 3% owned QB/WR stack in Week 2 with mega-upside…Watson to Hopkins seems like the best route to go. On the Jaguars side, they should be looking to throw late in this game again, and that puts my focus onto Dede Westbrook. We were very high on Westbrook in last week’s matchup against the Chiefs, and it should only get better this week as Aaron Colvin allowed over 100 yards in the slot to the Saints on Monday night per PFF…in fact, Colvin was so bad that he got cut by the Texans after the game despite this being the first year of his deal. Run back those Watson/Hopkins stacks with Westbrook, and I also don’t mind him as a one-off GPP play himself after leading the Jags in targets — as expected.
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Dede Westbrook, DeAndre Hopkins, DeShaun Watson, Leonard Fournette
My Pick: Under 43
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bills 22.5, Giants 21
Quarterback- Josh Allen AKA Cowboy Cam overcame early turnovers in Week 1 to lead an amazing comeback against new DC Gregg Williams’ Jets defense. He ended with 20 DK points after one of the worst first-halves of the Week, and he gets another juicy matchup this week with a Giants defense that was absolutely shredded by Dak Prescott in Week 1. The Giants were doomed from the get-go in that game, their inability to pressure opposing Quarterbacks is going to hurt them all season, and it could be trouble this week as it allows Allen time to throw deep, or run, whichever he chooses to do. Allen was not priced up after his Week 1 game, and is one of my favorite QB options in all formats on Sunday.
Giants fans will continue to tell you that they didn’t lose because of Eli Manning, and I will continue to tell you that there’s no reason Daniel Jones isn’t playing in these games. The Bills were a top-three defense in pass-defense DVOA a season ago, and I will not be targeting Manning (ever) in DFS.
Running Back- The Bills are another team with a seemingly split backfield after Frank Gore saw 10 touches to Devin Singletary’s nine in Week 1. HC Sean McDermott remained adamant that Frank Gore is their starting Running Back in pressers this week, but it’s worth noting how much more effective Singletary was, and that his touches all came in the midst of the Bills comeback, not in the first half. He’s nothing more of a GPP dart at this point, but he did look good and is a player to watch moving forward throughout the season.
On the Giants side, it starts and ends with arguably the best Running Back in the NFL, Saquon Barkley. He looked every bit as good as he did in his rookie year last week, and was kept off a monster game due to the fact that the Giants were getting blown out. He should be in line for 20+ touches as what projects to be a close game, and while I have him tagged as a GPP option due to the presence of Alvin Kamara (more about that later) I do think he is playable in all formats, obviously. He should go a bit under-owned after last week as well.
Pass Catchers- If you’re planning on playing some Josh Allen (like me) this week, the best options to stack him with are going to be John Brown and Cole Beasley in my opinion. We hit on the Allen to Brown stack a week ago, and their skill-sets correlate too well for this not to be a match made in heaven. If the Giants are unable to generate pressure on Allen this week, like I think will happen, it should provide Allen with time to pick out Brown down the field and we have seen slate-breaking upside from him before. The Giants were routinely beat over the middle of the field by Dak Prescott last week, which is why we like Beasley as a pivot off of Brown and it is worth noting that he still saw nine targets last week despite a lackluster game.
On the Giants side, it starts and ends with Evan Engram for me, someone that I was overweight on in Week 1. Engram saw 30% of the Giants team targets against the Cowboys, a massive number for a Tight End that should continue while Golden Tate is out. There’s enough value at Tight End this week that I don’t think Engram will enter my cash game build, but he is one of my favorite tournament pivots on the slate at his position.
Cash Game Options: Josh Allen
GPP Options: John Brown, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Devin Singletary
My Pick: Bills -1.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Packers 23.5, Vikings 20.5
Quarterback- This should be a great real-life football game on Sunday, but for DFS it’s sort of a mess. We saw Kirk Cousins throw just 10 times in Week 1 as the Vikings blew out the Falcons at home, and while I think that if the Vikings could play that way every weekend they would, that’s simply not going to be possible. They are going to have to throw more in a more tightly contested game like this one, but I still will have to wait and see when it comes to Cousins and DFS.
Aaron Rodgers was victimized by both the Bears fierce defense and a poor game-plan from new HC Matt LaFleur last Thursday night, and I think we need to take the wait and see approach here as well. LaFleur did nothing to ease concerns saying that they needed to run the football more after their close win over the Bears (WTF?) and Rodgers has routinely struggles to post big fantasy games against this tough Vikings defense the past few seasons.
Running Back- A nightmare start for Aaron Jones against Chicago won’t get any better against this Vikings run-defense, so I’m simply going to eliminate him from my player pool altogether. On the other side, however, we can talk about Dalvin Cook who was one of the best fantasy players in the league in Week 1. Cook will continue to be the main beneficiary of the run-first approach taken by the Vikings this season, but against this Packers improved run-defense he is a tournament-only play for me on Sunday albeit a good one, who should go over-looked a bit despite his monster first game.
Pass Catchers- This is where this game gets interesting, especially if it ends up being a close game like expected. There’s just no way that the Vikings get away with throwing the ball 10 times in this game, and after Allen Robinson shredded the Packers secondary in Week 1 I will be highly interested in both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs in tournaments, I just wish I knew that we could project 25+ attempts for Cousins.
Julio Jones let me down mightily in Week 1, but I think you would be foolish not to include Davante Adams in your tournament pool this week, though I do prefer both of the Vikings options to him if picking one.
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs
My Pick: Packers -3
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Titans 24, Colts 21
Quarterback- This is one of the snoozier games on the Main Slate this weekend, and if snoozier isn’t a word then it is now, because I just wrote it in an article. Jacoby Brissett was able to keep the Colts in the ballgame against the Chargers — mainly due to Marlon Mack — but is not someone I’m willing to target against this Titans defense that knows how to win-ugly and was able to get the best of Baker Mayfield in Week 1.
The Week 1 Titans were a perfect example of why we just don’t know much about these teams before we physically see them play a real game. Most of the off-season it was said that new OC Arthur Smith would be calling the same offense that Matt LaFleur did last season, but Smith was much more effective in his first ever game as an OC than LaFleur was at any point in 2018. He emphasized play-action beautifully and genuinely had the Browns defense confused in multiple instances. That being said, 70% of Marcus Mariota’s passing yards came on just three plays, the Titans still want to run the football first and foremost.
Running Back- The clear best two plays in this game are Marlon Mack and Derrick Henry. The Titans looked very beatable on the ground in Week 1 against the Browns, which bodes well for Mack who continued to stay in on passing downs building off the end of 2018. Henry is someone that I was virtually all-in on for season long fantasy, and he absolutely smashed against the Colts last season — before he even had this steady of a role locked up. There’s tons of good RB options on this slate, making Mack and Henry nothing more than tournament pivots despite positive matchups.
Pass Catchers- Delanie Walker scored two late touchdowns in Week 1 to smash value, and now that he is healthy he’s going to be in play against the team that allowed the most fantasy points to Tight Ends in 2018. TY Hilton’s day was saved with two touchdowns, but I’m projecting a repeat performance from him on the road and will be avoiding any pass catcher in this game outside of some GPP exposure to Walker.
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Delanie Walker
My Pick: TEN -3
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bengals 23.5, 49ers 21.5
Quarterback- This is a game that I expect to go a bit overlooked outside of backfield situation, and that makes me highly interested in a lot of aspects here for tournaments. Jimmy Garoppolo was a trendy tournament pick last week, and while he didn’t have a great game from a fantasy perspective, that came with George Kittle getting multiple touchdowns called back and with the ball getting taken out of his hands due to multiple Jameis Winston pick-sixes. I was all-in on the Seahawks in this matchup last week, and while I probably won’t have any Jimmy G exposure I will acknowledge him as a viable tournament play once again.
The Quarterback I am interested in, in this game is perennial hot-starter Andy Dalton who looked more than comfortable in new HC Zac Taylor’s offense. Jameis Winston was a chalk pick in this matchup last week, but for some reason it feels like everyone is glossing over the Bengals despite how good their offense was last week, and I think that’s a mistake.
Running Back- We have a couple banged up backfields here, so I’m going to group them together. Starting with San Francisco who lost Tevin Coleman a week ago to a high-ankle sprain, expect to see a lot of Matt Breida with Raheem Mostert and possibly Jeff Wilson mixing in. I don’t think Breida will be high-owned even factoring in the positive situation for him, but I’m going to be underweight here as well given how good the Bengals did with limiting Chris Carson last week, who was only able to beat value on the back of two touchdowns. The big situation here is that Joe Mixon still hasn’t practiced yet this week, and if he is out, we have a must roster cash game play (maybe GPPs as well) in Gio Bernard. So, I’m going to leave it at that until we get more clarity…if Mixon is out, lock in Gio, if he’s in, I’m probably fading the ground games altogether.
Pass Catchers- This is the spot that I’m most excited about, with both Tyler Boyd and John Ross looking equally as good in this new Bengals offense. John Ross played the Brandin Cooks role perfectly delivering a 7-158-2 line with 12 targets, while Tyler Boyd hauled in 8 of 11 targets. Both have extremely positive matchups this week with Boyd meeting K’Waun Williams in the slot, who we went after with Chris Godwin in cash games last week and Ross drawing a date with Richard Sherman, whose 6’3 195 pound bulky frame won’t be able to keep up with his 4.22 speed…Sherman runs a 4.60 40 yard dash for those wondering. I love the Bengals stack in tournaments this week, and I like both Ross and Boyd as homerun-hitting one-off options in any lineup.
Dante Pettis barely played in Week 1, hence why I was only on George Kittle from this group last weekend, and his team-high 10 targets (plus the called back TDs) make him the obvious run-back option with a Bengals stack.
Cash Game Options: Gio Bernard (IF MIXON OUT)
GPP Options: Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, George Kittle
My Pick: CIN -2
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chargers 25, Lions 22.5
Quarterback- This is one of the weirdest Week 2 games to me, and while I feel very strongly about a few plays in this game, I can’t get a read on the game as a whole. I have no idea why this game is at a 47.5 O/U, the Lions ran a ton of plays in Week 1 but that was entirely due to the Cardinals offense and pace, not because of them. The Lions want to play slow and run the ball, and I definitely think we will see them get back to that this weekend at home — at least the playing slow part. I’m not really interested in any of the Quarterbacks here in DFS, though if I were taking a shot on one it would be Philip Rivers in GPPs only. Our own Matt Domsic pointed out on the Game Theory podcast this week that Stafford was pressured the second-most in the NFL in Week 1 against a terrible defense in the Cardinals…just imagine what this Chargers front will be able to do against them this week.
Running Back- Austin Ekeler is one of the plays that I feel good about in this contest, and that would be the case even had he not absolutely went off in Week 1. He will be over-owned this week simply due to the three touchdowns he provided against the Colts, but it’s tough for me to fade him with the Chargers target tree shrinking and the Lions getting repeatedly beat over the middle of the field last week by David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Ekeler is one of the top Running Back plays on the slate this week, even with me not being able to see a similarly monster output from him.
Kerryon Johnson out-touched CJ Anderson 18-11, and while the snaps were much more encouraging for Johnson, I really don’t trust Matt Patricia when it comes to his Running Backs. The Lions coaching staff has repeatedly said they want a RBBC with Johnson, Anderson, and Ty Johnson, but Marlon Mack looked so good against this Chargers run-defense that we have attacked for years that it’s hard not to include Kerryon in your tournament pool, at least come Sunday.
Pass Catchers- As I noted above, the Lions were repeatedly beat over the middle of the field in Week 1 allowing over 140 yards in the slot per Pro Football Focus. This bodes well for Chargers slot receiver Keenan Allen, especially when we factor in the loss of Hunter Henry and the status of Mike Williams (knee) who looks like he will miss this game. If Williams is indeed out, we can look at Travis Benjamin for a GPP dart throw, but Allen and Ekeler will be the main beneficiaries which is why I have them labeled as cash game options heading into Week 2.
On the Lions side, many will want to chase Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones here but I just don’t see it. The Lions are not going to throw as much as they did in Week 1, and all of these guys have extremely tough matchups against a loaded Chargers secondary even without Derwin James. Amendola will get abused by Desmond King in the slot, and I don’t like attacking them on the outside either. The one Lions pass catcher I think we can consider in all formats is rookie phenom Tight End TJ Hockenson, and it’s only because his price didn’t move. Had he been priced up, this would be another avoid spot for me, but at only $3,000 on DraftKings we have to consider him. He was second on the team in air yards in Week 1 (142). five less than Kenny Golladay and saw the same amount of targets as him (9).
Cash Game Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, TJ Hockenson
GPP Options: Kerryon Johnson
My Pick: Under 47.5
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Steelers 25, Seahawks 21
Quarterback- Similar to the Bengals game, this one seems to not be grabbing the attention of the public despite the great spot at home for the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. Russ Wilson didn’t have a bad game against the Bengals, but with them traveling across the country for an early game against the Steelers I’m more interested in the Ben Roethlisberger side of things. For starters, Ben averaged over 23 DK points per game at home in 2018, and gets to throw against this Seahawks secondary that allowed over 400 yards through the air to Andy Dalton…sign me up! We also get the narrative of the Steelers coming home after a miserable defeat to the Patriots, but regardless I think Ben is an interesting low-owned tournament play on Sunday.
Running Back- I was absolutely in love with Chris Carson last week, and while he was able to hit value it came on the back of two touchdowns and most of his damage being done through the air. I think that the targets will most definitely be there once again this week, but I can’t predict him finding the box twice and if he’s going to have any ownership at all, I’ll be comfortable fading him.
James Conner is a key piece of the Steelers stack I’m planning on rolling out in a 3 or 5 max tournament setting, while people will fade him solely off of his poor Sunday night game. He still handled almost all of the work for the Steelers in the backfield, and should be in a situation where the team is not getting blown out seemingly from the get-go.
Pass Catchers- Tyler Lockett caught just one pass in Week 1, it just happened to be a 44 yard touchdown, but once again I am jumping on the bandwagon and firing him up on the opposite side of this stack. The Bengals did a great job of double-covering Lockett which hurt his overall ceiling, but the Steelers notoriously like to cover slot receivers with linebackers leading to abysmal results. Lockett’s aDOT was over 30 yards in Week 1, and the upside remains huge in Week 1, while the ownership will be much, much lower.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is arguably my favorite tournament play on this slate as people will continue to pick and choose when to believe false narratives. For my entire life, I’ve heard how the Patriots specialize in taking away a teams number one option, and now all of the sudden because JuJu had 78 yards in Week 1 it’s because he can’t handle double-coverage? GTFO. Don’t buy into false narratives, and roster JuJu with confidence in Week 2 as he has one of the highest-ceilings on the main slate. Ben/Conner/JuJu/Lockett stack FTW!
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner
My Pick: PIT -4
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Patriots 33, Dolphins 15
I’m going to write about this game differently than others because…well, what the heck do we do here? The Patriots have a monster team-total, but there are so many mouths to feed both in the backfield and the receiving corps that I don’t see anyone truly gaining massive ownership even in cash game builds. If one player ends up being chalky, I think it will be Julian Edelman, and he is my favorite overall player from this game…but the reason I’m writing this game differently is because I don’t feel very comfortable playing just one player from this game as a one-off.
The Dolphins have always given the Patriots trouble in Miami, but no Dolphins team has ever been this bad and I feel pretty confident in saying that. It was a true RBBC for the Patriots on Sunday night with Rex Burkhead, James White and Sony Michel all commanding work, and I just can’t trust any of them outside of a GPP. We also have the potential Antonio Brown situation, with it looking more and more likely like he will be active for him game and ready to make his Patriots debut. Overall, I really don’t see how this game stays close, and if anyone can guarantee you that they know who scores for the Patriots, they’re lying to you. The best move here for me, is to make it a GPP-only game and stack Tom Brady with at least two other Patriots players — for example — Josh Gordon + Julian Edelman or Sony Michel + Antonio Brown, something along those lines. The Patriots are going to score, we just really have no idea who it will be and I will have a Patriots stack in a 3 or 5 max setting, but that does it for my interest in this game. This is the weirdest overall game of the weekend, and if I can’t get an accurate read on it, I’m not going to waste my time trying to decipher it when there are at minimum 6-7 other really attractive DFS games.
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bears 21.5, Broncos 19
Quarterback- This is one of the uglier games on the Week 2 slate, with both teams putting up absolutely dismal offensive performances in Week 1 losses. Mitch Trubisky did nothing to calm the concerns we heard out of Bears training camp, and now his reward is traveling to Denver to play in one of the toughest road atmospheres in the NFL. I won’t be targeting him, nor Joe Flacco in DFS this week who looked even worse on Monday Night Football against the Raiders.
Running Back- We have two split backfields in this game which gives us a mess for daily fantasy, and season-long as well. David Montgomery looked good in his short time on the field last Thursday night, but Mike Davis ran ahead of him and we just don’t know how long it’s going to take for the Bears to hand the keys over to Montgomery as the season rolls on. Despite what Josh Jacobs did on Monday night in positive game-script, this isn’t exactly the matchup that we want to chase Running Backs in. The same can be said for the Broncos, as we will see both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman mix in for Denver in one of the toughest matchups in the NFL against this Bears front.
The interesting play from this game is that while Tarik Cohen is classified as a Running Back on fantasy sites, he was the Bears full-time slot receiver in Week 1 and saw 10 targets. I will be interested in him in DFS — especially on DK where we get full-point PPR moving forward.
Pass Catchers- Given my lack of interest in the offenses as whole in this game, I won’t be targeting anyone here in DFS outside of a GPP dart on Allen Robinson. Robinson comes into Week 2 top-ten in the NFL in air yards, and could have had a truly monster Week 1 game had his Quarterback been able to get him the ball efficiently. He should continue to dominate targets for this Bears team, and we would expect a Matt Nagy-led offense to look better at some point this season (hopefully?).
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen
My Pick: Broncos +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 30, Raiders 22.5
Quarterback- This game figures to be arguably the highest-owned game on the entire slate after the Raiders performance on Monday night showed that the prices on their players were not correct when salaries were released. It also features the highest-total on this slate at 52.5 points, and the best overall Quarterback option even when baking in his price in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes threw for six touchdowns in two games against Oakland last season, and we could see more of the same in this game with the Raiders without their best safety in rookie Jonathan Abram, and possibly Gareon Conley in the secondary as well. It’s a tough ask to fit in a QB as expensive as Mahomes in cash games, but he is undoubtedly the top overall play on this slate.
Derek Carr figures to be a popular DFS option given the massive total of this game, but I’m not sure if that’s a good move when Josh Allen is just $200 more than him on DraftKings, and Kyler Murray is $100 less on FanDuel. Carr had an amazing game on Monday night football, but that translated to just 14 DK points and would it shock anyone if the Raiders got the doors blown off them in after a massive win against the Broncos? I’m tagging him as a GPP option given his recent success against this Chiefs defense, but I don’t feel great about him, or this team as the week has gone on and I’m planning on being well underweight.
Running Back- The Chiefs backfield was pretty much what we expected in Week 1, both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy got work but Williams saw over 60% of the snaps compared to 30% for McCoy — again, as expected, we know that McCoy’s role will continue to grow as he gets acclimated to the team. Williams seeing six targets was promising for his role as a pass-catcher once Andy Reid is ready to “unleash” Shady McCoy, but for now it’s going to be hard to play them in anything other than tournaments given the presence of the other.
The interesting dynamic of this game is what to do with Josh Jacobs, who came out and dropped 24 DK points in his debut on the back of 23 carries, and was foolishly priced at $4,700 by DraftKings. He’s 100% set to be one of the highest-owned players in cash games this week at that price, but I really don’t feel great about it at all. The Raiders are not going to be winning this game against the Chiefs like they were on Monday night, and while the volume should still be there, I don’t like that he caught just one pass. Ultimately it’s hard to fade a workhorse back at this price in the highest projected O/U of the week, but I will be taking a stand and full-on fading him in tournaments. He’s simply going to be too highly-owned for what I think he is going to do in this game-script.
Pass Catchers- This is one of the most interesting situations of the week, with no Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs and with Sammy Watkins absolutely smashing in Week 1. We also have Travis Kelce who should of had two touchdowns in Week 1, and deciding between the two is going to end up as one of the toughest decisions made in cash games this week. Watkins is going to continue to pop off with Hill on the shelf, and we know what Kelce can get you each week. I love both in cash games this week, but I don’t think you’ll be able to play both of them together. Another option we have in tournaments is rookie speedster Mecole Hardman, who directly replaced Hill once he exited the game. He drew just one target, but he was on the field for all but six offensive snaps. It’s probably too thin to consider him for cash games, but he is cheap and one of the better tournament pivots on this slate.
We finish up with the Raiders pass catchers, and another instance where we could see some pretty heavy chalk with Tyrell Williams at $4,400 on DraftKings and Darren Waller at $3,300. Again, what are these prices! I think that Williams, and Waller for that matter, are much better plays than Jacobs given the expected game-script and I would be comfortable at least considering them in tournaments, while we simply have to in cash games. There are enough Tight End plays that I don’t think Waller is a must in any format, but that may just be my own bias trickling in because I really have this weird feeling that the Raiders are going to get blown out and let everyone that stacks them down on Sunday afternoon. Only time will tell, but the unfortunate part is we simply have to keep them as cash game options on DK given the prices, whereas on FanDuel, you can avoid the situation altogether for better or for worse.
Cash Game Options: Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs (DK Only), Darren Waller
GPP Options: Derek Carr, Mecole Hardman, Jalen Richard, LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams
My Pick: Under 52.5
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Rams 27, Saints 25
Quarterback- As you can tell, this slate is saving the best for last with the two most anticipated games both kicking off in the 4 o clock hour. Jared Goff posted just 10 DraftKings points in their Week 1 win over the Panthers, held back by his negative road splits, and should be in line for a much more positive outcome this weekend at home where he averaged over 25 DK points in 2018. Deshaun Watson torched this Saints defense through the air on Monday night, and Goff’s positive numbers at home make him one of the top QB plays on this slate.
As for Drew Brees, he is cut from the same cloth as Goff struggling on the road throughout his career (fantasy-wise). I think the Saints will want to get a bit more in tune with their run game in this game, especially with the Rams featuring such a weak run-defense, so I will be avoiding Brees this week even in game stacks.
Running Back- Much will be made of Todd Gurley this weekend, but if you read this article last week then you already know I was concerned about his injury heading into the week. News broke that the Rams “had no idea” how his knee would hold up in Week 1, and I only see that situation getting worse as the season rolls on. The touches will look good for him on paper, but he was a complete non-factor in the red zone, and they chose to throw him the ball just once. His price will continue to fall in DFS, and I will continue to not trust him, McVay’s words or his knee…I’m full fading him even in game stacks, which might be dumb, but I’m simply not playing someone that I know is hurt.
After Christian McCaffrey wrecked havoc on this Rams defense for 209 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, including 10 catches in Week 1, Alvin Kamara is set-up to be the mega-chalk in DFS contests this weekend (rightfully so). Latavius Murray stole a touchdown on the ground, but Kamara played 76% of the snaps and is the exact type of back that we want to attack this Rams defense, which is also why I was on McCaffrey last week. He’s a tough fade this weekend, and pretty much a must play in cash games for me.
Pass Catchers- Obviously if we are going to be running some Jared Goof exposure, we will be interested in both stacking with him as well as game stacks given the 50+ O/U in this game. My favorite two partners with Goff are definitely going to be Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks, with Robert Woods rendered more for tournaments only. Kupp dominated the snaps for this Rams team in Week 1 despite being less than a year removed from ACL surgery, and he gets the best matchup in the slot against PJ Williams, one of our favorite DFS targets from a season ago. Cooks on the other hand got extremely unlucky in Week 1 hauling in just two of six targets with an aDOT of 13.3 yards. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins were able to get behind this Saints secondary more than a few times on Monday night, and Cooks has smashed in three of four games against his former team making him one of my favorite plays on this week’s slate.
Michael Thomas on the other hand is an amazing GPP leverage play, as I expect him to fall lower-owned than Kupp, and Kamara — and you can easily roster him in lineups with those players as well. The low-owned dart on the Saints this week would be Ted Ginn Jr, he hauled in a touchdown on Monday night on the back of 7 targets, and was in for more of Drew Brees’ dropbacks than Tre’Quan Smith. All-in-all, stack this game up!
Cash Game Options: Jared Goff, Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp
GPP Options: Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr, Robert Woods
My Pick: Rams -2.5
Saving My Favorite Game for Last: Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
Once again this week, I’m saving the Cardinals game for last and I’m formatting it differently than the other games on this slate. Go back and read my analysis on the Cardinals/Lions game last weekend and you’ll see that I basically said you need to fade this game due to you thinking it would bust, or go overweight on it because you thought it would shootout — I was on the latter end of that statement. While I wouldn’t fade this game, I have plans to be way overweight to it in all formats and it’s my favorite game on this slate by far. Regardless of industry talk later on in the week, this game will still fall behind the Chiefs/Raiders and Rams/Saints games in ownership, another reason why I plan on going overweight to this contest. This game opened with a 42.5 O/U and has since shot-up to 46, and we could see it rise even further as we head into the weekend after the Cardinals ran 82 plays in their opening game against Detroit (OT included).
Anyone that follows me, or knows me, knows that I was all-in on Lamar Jackson this season for fantasy and he couldn’t of delivered a better Week 1 performance than he did against the Dolphins. He showed tremendous accuracy, especially on his deep ball, and if people want to say that he only did it because it was the Dolphins, that’s fine…but why won’t he do it against an almost equally bad secondary in Arizona missing Patrick Peterson? This is another situation where Lamar should have all day in the pocket, and he should deliver another monster fantasy performance. We absolutely can’t count on five touchdowns through the air again, but he did NOTHING with his legs last week so we can bake that floor in and minimize the risk even further. Hollywood Brown came out with one of the craziest first games I’ve ever seen and he did it on under 20 snaps. We absolutely can’t expect a similar game to last week with that little time on the field, but like I said, this secondary is just as bad as the one they faced last week so for GPPs you can go back to the well. I felt the need to address that outright, but overall the move here is to game stack this game with the expected pace hike thanks to the Cardinals offensive philosophies.
I will be building around the Lamar Jackson/Mark Ingram stack in tournaments and running it back with two of David Johnson, Christian Kirk, Larry Firztgerald and Damiere Byrd in that order. You can also add a third to the Ravens side in Brown, Mark Andrews or a lower-owned pivot in Miles Boykin. I think this game can smash through the 46 O/U and I’m going to take advantage of that in tournaments.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
