Welcome to the Week 2 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams/Allen Lazard
Rodgers returned to MVP form last week, completing 32 of 44 attempts for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings. He’s coming off of a respectable season with 4,0002 yards and 26 touchdowns, although he’s due for quite a bit of touchdown regression after Aaron Jones ran for 16 touchdowns in 2019. Rodgers gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns while completing only 20 of his 36 pass attempts. I expect Rodgers to be a more efficient passer in this game, giving him an elite ceiling if Detroit can keep this game relatively close.
Adams will be the chalk option in this stack. He posted 83 receptions for 997 yards and 5 touchdowns on 127 targets in 12 games last season. He picked up right where he left off against Minnesota, posting a 14/156/2 line on 17 targets. He also dropped a touchdown in that game. Adams played 89.7% of the offensive snaps for Green Bay, recording 42% of the Packers air yards. He ended the game with 165 air yards and a 9.7 aDOT. Adams also saw a trio of red zone targets, although that ranked second on the team behind Jones. He’s the most expensive receiver on this slate but will still feature plenty of ownership and makes an elite option. He’s the only must start option along with Rodgers in a Green Bay stack this weekend.
There was quite a bit of talk about who the Packers WR2 was going to be after they didn’t draft one a few months ago. Allen Lazard was the expected option with Marquez Valdes-Scantling breaking out during training camp. MVS was slightly better in their first game, although Lazard posted a 4/63/1 line on 4 targets. He also ran for 19 yards against the Vikings. More importantly, Lazard played 87.2% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps compared to MVS’ 53.8%. He converted his only red zone target in the game into a touchdown and he’s expecting to continue to see growth in his offensive role as the season progresses. Overall, Lazard is the safer option of the duo while MVS features more upside from his 20.8 aDOT in Week 1. Lazard is the preferred play this weekend, although MVS and Jones can both be considered as his replacement in this stack.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Michael Gallup
Prescott struggled a bit last week, throwing for 266 yards and 1 touchdown on 39 pass attempts. His biggest issues came with the pressure of the Los Angeles Rams, something that the Atlanta Falcons won’t be able to garner this weekend. Atlanta got into a bit of a shootout with the Seattle Seahawks last week, allowing Russell Wilson to complete 31 of 35 passes for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns. Prescott was also on the road against Los Angeles and will return home this weekend. In 2019, Prescott averaged 42.2 more yards and 1.3 more touchdowns per game through the air in Dallas than on the road. The Cowboys also feature the highest team total on the slate at 28.8 points.
Elliott looked outstanding on Sunday night, totaling 127 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 touches (3 receptions). He saw plenty of red zone work, including the majority of the rushing attempts inside-the-20. Elliott played 87.5% of the offensive snaps and will continue to one of the premier running backs in the NFL. Last week, Atlanta contained Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde on the ground but they allowed Carson to record 6 receptions for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Falcons have struggled to contain receiving backs in recent years and Elliott has significantly more receiving upside than Carson did entering the game last weekend.
Gallup is coming off of a breakout season but many questioned if he could continue it with CeeDee Lamb on the field. He saw 5 targets in his first game of the season, recording 3 receptions for 50 yards. Gallup had a deep catch called back on a pass interference call, though, or his game would’ve been relatively reasonable. He played a team-high 95.8% of the offensive snaps while seeing 33.2% of the air yards. As Matt pointed out in our NFL Game Theory podcast, Gallup is at his best when Prescott has time for his routes to develop and that will likely be the case this weekend. He’ll also be the lowest owned of the Dallas’ WR trio.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson/Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews
Jackson continued his unbelievable efficiency last week, completing 20 of 25 pass attempts for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also added 45 yards on only 7 rush attempts. This game was out of hand relatively early and Jackson didn’t need to take over while still scoring 27.5 fantasy points. He gets a plus matchup against the Houston Texans, wh allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns only 32 attempts last week. They also allowed 166 yards on the ground, suggesting Jackson could use his legs more this weekend. Regardless, he’s an elite quarterback in what should be a high scoring game.
Brown saw 6 targets last week, recording 5 receptions for 101 yards without finding the end zone. He only played 62.7% of the offensive snaps, although he saw a ridiculous 46.3% of the Baltimore Raven’s air yards. Overall, he ended the game with 126 air yards and an elite 21.0 aDOT. Brown wasn’t targeted in the red zone but he was second on the team in 2019 with 13, suggesting he simply wasn’t needed against the Cleveland Browns. He continues to boast an elite ceiling and I expect his snap count to increase in close games. Brown continues to make an elite option for his current price tag.
Mark Andrews is the other focal point of the Baltimore passing attack. He turned 6 targets into 5 receptions for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Andrews was featured in the red zone, leading the team with 4 targets inside-the-20. Baltimore said they wanted to play him more snaps this season and that was the case as he played 71.2% of their offensive snaps against Cleveland. Andrews saw 78 air yards with a respectable 13.0 aDOT. Ultimately, he saw 28.7% of Baltimore air yards last week. The Ravens passing attack is extremely condensed to these three options on a near-weekly basis, and this is the clear stack if you’re looking for the upside of Baltimore’s offense.
StatHero
The most important note for StatHero is their scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points.
Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense.
The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ starts at.
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley
Ryan and Atlanta played from behind the majority of last week. He ended the game with 37 completions on 54 attempts for 450 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been a volume player for quite some time and that isn’t likely to change with Todd Gurley at running back this season. Ryan gets a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who held Jared Goff to 275 yards without any touchdowns last week. I expect Atlanta to find more success in this game as the total is set at 54 points. The spread is also only 4.5 points, suggesting the Atlanta Falcons can stick around to feature their passing attack once again.
Jones is the leader of a great Atlanta receiving group. He totaled 9 receptions for 157 yards on 12 targets last week. Jones only saw one red zone target last week, although I expect him to find plenty of red zone opportunities this season after leading the team in red zone targets in 2019. He was second on the team in snaps, playing 82.3% of the Falcons offensive snaps against the Seattle Seahawks. Jones led the team with 38.7% of air yards. Overall, he saw 185 air yards with a 15.4 aDOT. He’s the top receiving option in an elite spot this week.
Ridley was elite when given 8+ targets last season and he was expected to see a larger role in 2020. That came to fruition Week 1 when Ridley posted 9 receptions for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets. He led the team with a trio of red zone targets, scoring both touchdowns inside-the-20. Ridley also played a team-high 86.1% of the offensive snaps last week. He ended with 148 air yards and a 12.3 aDOT, recording 31% of the team’s air yards. Ridley is an elite option opposite of Jones, making one of the best receiver pairings in the NFL.
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