Quarterback
Jameis Winston- Week 17 is always one of the most difficult weeks to analyze between team motivation and players resting/sitting out. Looking at ownership projections — Matt Ryan, Tom Brady. Carson Wentz and Winston all project for double-digit ownership despite my limited interest in the majority of those players. Followers of my content know I don’t play Matt Ryan, Tom Brady is not someone I’m interested in DFS even against the Dolphins, and Carson Wentz is dealing with an extremely banged up receiving corps. Winston himself is also dealing with injuries, no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and Wentz has been able to overcome those injuries topping 20 DK points in four straight games — though I still think I prefer Winston if choosing one of them. It’s definitely a close call, the Eagles need to win to secure a playoff birth, but Winston has something to play for as well…a contract. Reports are out that Winston is seeking 30 million dollars per year this off-season, and this is his last chance to audition for any potential suitors. The Bucs/Falcons game features a higher O/U in Vegas than the Eagles game, and I think it has a better chance of shooting out.
Overall, it’s a close decision between Wentz and Winston, but I’m leaning towards the latter for lower ownership.
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Patrick Mahomes- This is more of a leverage play. I expect Mahomes to go largely overlooked on the Week 17 main slate and that could end up a costly mistake for faders. The Chiefs need to win this game, and if they don’t they could drop down to the four seed should the Houston Texans beat the Tennessee Titans. Despite topping 25 DK points in his last two games, we haven’t seen that huge game since earlier this season. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in his last two games, but with the backfield banged up I think we could potentially see a ceiling game from him at home. Despite the lack of attention their offense is getting, they are tied for the third-highest implied team total on the slate at 27.5 points.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey + Ezekiel Elliott- I’m grouping these two together because it’s clear I will be building my optimal team around both of them. Christian McCaffrey was limited in Week 17 a season ago, but the Panthers have been insistent that won’t be the case this time around. Multiple players have stated that they want CMC to reach the records that he’s close to achieving, and we should see a pretty clear game plan centered around him this week.
Elliott is not someone I have played much in DFS this season, but the Cowboys need to win this game in order to make the playoffs should the Eagles lose, and they are listed as huge 13 point home favorites. The Redskins have coughed up the third-most DK points to opposing Running Backs this season, and with Dak Prescott still ailing we should see Zeke get the ball early and often on Sunday in a soft matchup.
Aaron Jones- Alvin Kamara will probably be the popular choice after the aforementioned backs, but I actually prefer Aaron Jones against the Detroit Lions. While the Panthers have given up the most DK points to RB’s this season, the Lions aren’t far off coming in as the fourth-worst. We always have the threat that the Saints could limit Kamara in favor of Latavius Murray if the game gets out of hand, and Taysom Hill can steal red zone work as well. Normally I’m worried about Jamaal Williams siphoning usage, but he is out for this game and there’s really nobody behind Jones. This is a plus matchup, and the Packers are big favorites meaning we should see 20+ touches for Jones on Sunday.
Damien Williams- Similar to the above tier, I actually think DeAndre Washington will be higher-owned but I prefer Williams myself. Both of Darrell Williams and Spencer Ware are now on IR, and Shady McCoy has been pretty much irrelevant down the stretch for the Chiefs. Williams is coming off a 19 touch outing against the Bears, and we should see a similar workload in a softer matchup as a big home favorite.
Note: Sony Michel is someone that’s projecting for a lot of ownership as a heavy favorite against the Dolphins, but he was bumped down to Questionable on Saturday due to an illness. If he’s out, I would like Rex Burkhead as a tournament play in his place.
SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: WITH LEONARD FOURNETTE OUT, RYQUELL ARMSTEAD RISES TO THE TOP OF THE VALUE PLAYS POOL AND CAN BE USED IN ALL FORMATS
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones- Jones has 35 targets over the last two games sans Calvin Ridley, and should be in line for another monster workload on Sunday. The Buccaneers have surrendered the most DK points to wideouts this season by a wide margin, and he will be one of the highest owned players on the slate come Sunday. Since I want to play Winston with one of his receivers — see below — Jones makes sense over someone like Davante Adams if spending up at WR in cash games.
Justin Watson- Watson moved into a full-time receiving role for the Bucs last week with Chris Godwin out, and saw 10 targets in the process. He also found the end zone, and while his price was bumped up, it still isn’t high enough at only $4,600. John Ross saw a full workload for the first time since the beginning of the season last week for the Bengals, with 13 targets and over 280 air yards. Nothing against Ross, but he is now projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate after one big week, whereas Watson is in the same pricing tier and can be used as a stack with our Quarterback.
Steven Sims Jr- I was all over Sims last week, and he had a big game with 25 DK points at sub-6% ownership in cash games. He won’t be quite as secretive this week, but with most focusing on Ross there’s a good chance he flies a bit under the radar once again. Dwayne Haskins was well on his way to the best game of his career before getting hurt last week and Case Keenum will start this game — this is not a bad thing. Keenum hit Sims for once of his touchdowns in the second half, and his most likely an upgrade over Haskins at this point.
Sims has 27 targets over the last three weeks and we know that Keenum has an affinity for slot receivers…
Other options I’m considering for all formats are Courtland Sutton, AJ Brown and John Ross. As I mentioned above, Ross is not exactly the type of player I want to be heavy on as chalk, but he’s on my radar nonetheless.
Tight End
Outlook: Tight End is extremely simple for me in cash games this week, and it’s due to the presence of Dallas Goedert. Goedert owns 6+ targets in each of his last six games, including 12 last week in a game where Zach Ertz missed time due to injury — Ertz has been ruled out for this game. This is an easy way to get exposure to Wentz while not playing him, and overall he is just too cheap for the role he will need to play on Sunday.
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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
