Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord,click here.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill/Derrick Henry/A.J. Brown
Tannehill’s enjoyed an outstanding 2020 season thus far. Through 15 games, he’s thrown for 3,603 yards with 32 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s also added 228 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Tannehill’s posted 16+ fantasy points in 13 of his 15 games, including 4 games with 30+ fantasy points. He gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend. Houston’s allowing 260.0 passing yards per game and 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up 29 passing touchdowns through 15 games. The Tennessee Titans are currently 7.5 point favorites in a game set at 56.5 points, and they boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 32 points.
Henry continues to be one of few workhorse running backs in the NFL, playing 64% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps this season. He’s enjoying an elite season, recording 1,777 yards and 15 touchdowns on 344 carries. He only owns 19 receptions for 114 yards on 31 targets in 2020. Henry’s posted 28+ fantasy points in 5 of his 15 games, including a trio of games with 39+ fantasy points. He ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone carries (54), recording 162 yards and 12 touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, Henry isn’t involved in Tennessee’s red zone passing offense. Houston’s struggled against the run, as well, allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game and a league-high 5.0 yards per carry this season. The Texans have given up 20 rushing touchdowns in 2020, as well. Henry had his best game of the against Houston, and he boasts elite upside in this matchup once again.
Brown leads Tennessee’s receivers, playing 69% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s looked impressive once again this season, recording 60 receptions for 924 yards and 10 touchdowns on 95 targets through 13 games. Brown’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 13 games. He’s also flashed 30+ fantasy point upside throughout the season. Brown is an ultra-efficient red zone threat this season, posting 8 receptions for 86 yards and 6 touchdowns on 11 targets. He’s seen 1,074 air yards with a solid 11.3 aDOT this season. Overall, he’s accounted for 29.8% of Tennessee’s air yards. Brown’s the preferred option over Corey Davis this weekend, although both come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers/Aaron Jones/Davante Adams
Rodgers is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season for the Green Bay Packers. He’s thrown for 4,059 yards with 44 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 502 pass attempts through 15 games. He boasts 145 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Rodgers’ posted 23+ fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games. He also recorded 30+ fantasy points in 4 of those games. Rodgers gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago Bears this weekend. They’re giving up 231.2 passing yards per game and 7.1 adjusted yards per attempted in 2020. Chicago also allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season. The Packers are 5.5 point favorites in a game set at 51 points, giving them an implied team total of 28.3 points.
Jones leads the Green Bay running backs, playing 51% of the offensive snaps in 2020. Through 13 games, he owns 1,062 yards and 8 touchdowns on 190 carries. He also boasts 43 receptions for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns on 58 targets. Jones’ recorded double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, while flashing near 50 fantasy point upside. He owns a team-high 35 red zone carries, posting 105 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jones’ turned 10 red zone targets into 5 receptions for 21 yards and 2 touchdowns. Chicago’s allowing 115.7 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. They’ve held their opponents to only 10 rushing touchdowns, as well.
Adams has played 74% of the offensive snaps for Green Bay this season. He’s been elite, recording 109 receptions for 1,328 yards and 17 touchdowns in only 13 games. Adams has also caught fire recently, posting 27+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. He leads the NFL in red zone targets (26), posting 21 receptions for 120 yards and 13 touchdowns. Adams’ seen 1,316 air yards with a 9.2 aDOT, accounting for 34.1% of Green Bay’s air yards this season. He’s arguably the best fantasy receiver in the NFL and a must-start in a Packers stack.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins/Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson
Cousins has caught fire in recent weeks. He’s thrown for 3,860 yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on 476 pass attempts through 15 games. He’s posted 18+ fantasy points in each of his last 8 games, flashing 30+ fantasy point upside in those contests. Cousins gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing 278.3 passing yards per game and a league-high 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt. Detroit’s also given up a league-high 35 passing touchdowns. The Minnesota Vikings are 7 point favorites in a game set at 54 points, and they own an implied team total of 30.5 points.
Thielen leads the Minnesota receiving group, playing 85% of the offensive snaps this season. Through 14 games, he’s posted 70 receptions for 868 yards and 14 touchdowns on 103 targets. He’s been a boom or bust option, scoring 20+ fantasy points in 7 of his 14 games, while recording single-digit fantasy points in 5 of those games. Thielen’s turned a team-high 18 red zone targets into 16 receptions for 115 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s also scored 10 touchdowns inside-the-10 this season. Thielen’s recorded 1,267 air yards with a solid 12.3 aDOT in 2020. He’s seen 34.3% of Minnesota’s air yards this season.
Jefferson’s enjoyed an elite rookie season, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. He owns 79 receptions for 1,267 yards and 7 touchdowns on 113 targets over 15 games. Jefferson’s posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last 7 games. He’s also flashed 40+ fantasy point upside this season. Jefferson’s only seen 9 red zone targets, recording 4 receptions for 38 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s recorded 1,333 air yards to go along with an 11.8 aDOT. He’s accounted for 36.1% of Minnesota’s air yards in 2020. Jefferson’s more of a big-play threat while Thielen is the top target in the red zone. This duo could see more opportunities with Dalvin Cook out, adding to their upside on this slate.
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