Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson
Watson’s been enjoying an outstanding 2020 season. He’s thrown for 4,458 yards with 30 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 505 pass attempts through 15 games. Watson also boasts 432 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. He owns a 5.9% touchdown rate to go along with a career-low 1.2% interception rate.
Watson’s been a bit inconsistent early this season, although he’s averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game in 2020. He’s recorded fewer than 17 fantasy points in 3 of his 15 games. He’s been playing at an extremely high level recently, though, scoring 27+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 28.3 fantasy points per game, including a 36.12 fantasy point performance against the Detroit Lions. Watson’s looked elite at home, as well, scoring 24+ fantasy points in each of his last 6 home games. He hasn’t been bothered by a lack of high-end receiving options since the suspension of Will Fuller, and he gets another matchup he can thrive in to close the season.
Watson will face off against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. They’re allowing 271.9 passing yards per game and 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. Tennessee’s also given up 33 passing touchdowns through 15 games. The Houston Texans are 7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 56.5 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 24.5 points. The Texans will be forced to rely heavily on Watson’s arm, similar to their recent games, as they’ve consistently been playing from behind. Excluding a recent matchup against the Chicago Bears, Watson’s been an elite option, flashing a great floor because of his scrambling potential to go along with elite upside.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift
Swift’s enjoyed a solid rookie season, although in a limited role. He boasts 467 yards and 7 touchdowns on only 102 carries through 12 games. He also owns 43 receptions for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns on 54 targets. Swift’s only seen 17 red zone carries, posting 40 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s turned 9 red zone targets into 6 receptions for 39 yards and 2 touchdowns, as well.
Swift’s only played 37% of Detroit Lions’ offensive snaps this season. He’s seen a larger role recently, though, recording 10+ carries in 4 of his last 5 games after reaching that threshold in only 1 of his first 7 games. Swift’s also seen 5 targets in each of those games. He boasts double-digit fantasy points in each of those 5 games, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game over that span. He flashed 30+ fantasy point upside on only 17 touches earlier in the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Swift gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who are giving up 134.8 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They’re allowed 17 rushing touchdowns through 15 games, as well. Detroit gets one of the best offensive/defensive line matchups in terms of the running game, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Vikings are giving up 1.55 yards before contact per attempt, as well. Swift quietly ranks fifth in the NFL in yards before contact per carry (3.0), suggesting he’ll have a massive edge prior to contact this weekend. The Lions are 7 point underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 23.8 points. Swift is a player that will benefit from playing from behind, and he’s an outstanding tournament option as he looks to end his rookie season on a high note.
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor struggled early in the season but has elevated his game in recent weeks. Overall, he owns 916 yards and 9 touchdowns on 202 carries through 14 games. He’s an ultra-efficient receiver, as well, posting 35 receptions for 298 yards and 1 touchdown on 38 targets this season. Taylor’s recorded 86 yards and 8 touchdowns on a team-high 39 red zone carries. Taylor’s only seen 4 red zone targets, posting 3 receptions for 4 yards.
Taylor leads the Indianapolis Colts running backs, playing 44% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s seen mixed results throughout the season, specifically struggles in the middle of the season. With that being said, Taylor’s caught fire over his last 5 games, posting 15+ fantasy points in each of those games. He’s averaging a healthy 22.1 fantasy points per game in those contests, flashing 30+ fantasy point upside.
Taylor gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. They’re allowing 145.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry in 2020. Jacksonville’s also given up 21 rushing touchdowns through 15 games this season. Indianapolis also features the fifth-biggest offensive/defensive line matchup in the running game, per PFF. The Jaguars are allowing 1.54 yards before contact per attempt. Taylor hasn’t been elite in terms of broken tackles throughout his rookie season, but he has found more success in recent games. The Colts are 14 point favorites in a game set at 49.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 31.8 points. Taylor should see plenty of opportunities to run out the clock in the second half, and he’s another rookie that can end his first season with success.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones Jr.
Jones has been a boom or bust option throughout the 2020 season. He boasts 68 receptions for 798 yards and 7 touchdowns on 104 targets through 15 games. Jones has seen 13 red zone targets, turning them into 8 receptions for 44 yards and 4 touchdowns. He boasts 1,290 air yards with a 12.4 aDOT, accounting for 28.8% of the Detroit Lions’ air yards this season.
Jones has played a position-high 89% of the offensive snaps for Detroit. He’s recorded double-digit fantasy points in 8 of his 15 games, including 7 of his last 10 contests. Jones is taking on a larger role with Kenny Golladay injured, recording 47 targets over his last 5 contests. He continued to be a boom or bust option in those games, posting 30.2 and 28.6 fantasy points against the Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears while recording single-digit fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games. Jones is relatively touchdown-dependent, averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game when he scores as opposed to 7.7 fantasy points when he doesn’t find the end zone.
Jones gets a plus matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. They’re giving up 256.9 passing yards per game and 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Minnesota’s also allowed 27 passing touchdowns in 2020. Jones is expected to spend most of his time against Chris Jones on Sunday. He’s allowed an 84% catch rate while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. Jones has also given up 0.41 fantasy points and 1.85 yards per route covered throughout the 2020 season. Overall, he’s graded out a the thirst-worst cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. As mentioned above, Detroit is a 7 point underdog in a game set at 54.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 23.8 points. Jones’ value is a bit dependent on Matthew Stafford’s status. He’s currently campaigning to play, although there isn’t much reason for it. If he does start, Jones gains even more value.
Mike Evans
Evans has performed well in his first season with Tom Brady. He owns 67 receptions for 960 yards and 13 touchdowns on 105 targets. He’s turned a team-high 17 red zone targets into 11 receptions for 56 yards and 9 touchdowns through 15 games. Evans’ seen 1,344 air yards with a 12.8 aDOT this season. Overall, he’s accounted for 26% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ air yards.
Evans has played 84% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps this season. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 15 games, including a 43.1 fantasy point performance last week. Evans’ also recorded 20+ fantasy points in 6 games this season. He had his best game of the season with a combination of Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. The important aspect of that game was that Evans stayed in once Brady was removed because of the blowout.
Evans gets an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are giving up 287.1 passing yards per game and 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also allowed 30 passing touchdowns this season. Evans gets a matchup against Kendall Sheffield, who’s graded out as PFF’s worst cornerback in the NFL this season. He’s been targeted on 20% of his routes covered, allowing a 73% catch rate. Sheffield’s also given up 0.39 fantasy points and 2.10 yards per route covered this season. Tampa Bay is a 6.5 point favorite in a game set at 50 points. They boast an implied team total of 28.3 points this weekend. Evans recently posted 20 fantasy points against Atlanta without scoring, and he should find success once again this weekend.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki
Gesicki hasn’t enjoyed the breakout that many were expecting, but he continued to show flashes for the Miami Dolphins. Through 14 games, he’s recorded 48 receptions for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 targets. Gesicki leads Miami in red zone targets (13), posting 5 receptions for 48 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s seen 833 air yards with an 11.1 aDOT, accounting for 21.9% of Miami’s air yards in 2020.
Gesicki’s only played 56% of the offensive snaps for Miami this season. He’s had plenty of struggles in 2020, scoring fewer than 3 fantasy points in 3 of his 14 games. With that being said, he’s posted 24+ fantasy points in 3 games, as well. Gesicki’s also caught fire recently, averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games. He owns 23.5 and 23.8 fantasy points in 2 of those contests.
Gesicki gets an interesting matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are allowing only 222.8 passing yards per game and 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They held their opponents to only 22 passing touchdowns through 15 games, as well. With that being said, they’ve struggled against the slot, and Gesicki posted an 8/130/1 line against them on 11 targets earlier in the season. The Dolphins are 2 point underdogs in a game set at 44.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 21.3 points. Gesicki is the definition of a boom or bust option, and he can be used in tournaments in this matchup.
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