Quarterback
Lamar Jackson- Jackson is back on the main slate after working the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, and will be ready to go after a few extra rest days. There should be no concerns about his workload in this one — the Ravens need to win this game to lock up the number one overall seed in the AFC (assuming New England wins on Saturday). He finally got the price bump to $8,000 on DraftKings, but that is warranted after topping 26 DK points in nine of his last 11 games — the outliers being a 20 point output against the Bills and a 14 point game against the Steelers. Two much more intimidating defenses than the one he will see on Sunday. Not only is the Browns run-defense extremely giving, but they also have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing Quarterbacks, which is one of the reasons why I was so heavy on Kyler Murray last week. We have some strong value plays across the board this weekend which makes prioritizing Jackson for not only his floor, but ceiling as well completely doable.
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Running Back
Christian McCaffrey- DFS players should not fret about the switch from Kyle Allen to Will Grier — McCaffrey was routinely able to post 30+ fantasy points games despite Allen’s incompetence this season. The Colts defense is a zone-heavy scheme the relies on keeping things in front of them and funneling work to the middle of the field and short-yardage areas. This bodes well for McCaffrey whose aDOT is just one yard out this season, and the QB switch could be all the more reason to feed CMC, especially with some pretty notable records in the cards to be broken. I play McCaffrey weekly, and I would like to do so again this week. Given his price, he won’t end up as huge chalk and actually only projects for around 20% ownership.
Joe Mixon + Devonta Freeman (Under-priced plays)- There’s a pair of “too cheap” plays this week — Mixon in a sparkling matchup against the Dolphins and Freeman getting the completely broken Jaguars defense. Both of these teams are bottom-five in DraftKings points allowed to Running Backs this season, yet both of these players are priced under $7,000. I think Mixon is the best overall RB play on the slate this week, and would choose him if picking one, but I think the popular move will be to simply lock in both of these guys.
DeAndre Washington- Washington became the top value play on the slate earlier this week when news broke that Josh Jacobs would be out for Week 16. Wash dropped over 20 fantasy points against the Titans two weeks ago when Jacobs was a surprise inactive, he rushed 14 times while also seeing 7 targets. Jalen Richard will mix in for receiving work in this game, but the Raiders showed us in Week 14 that unlike Josh Jacobs, they will actually throw the ball to Washington. The Chargers cough up the 11th-most DK points per game to Running Backs, and it will be hard for me avoid Washington on Sunday.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones- The debate rages on at the top of WR this week — Michael Thomas or Julio Jones? If choosing one, I’ll take the savings with Julio in a macthup with the Jaguars. The Titans secondary is bad, but no defense in the NFL is as bad as the Jags right now and Julio is coming off a huge 20 target game sans Calvin Ridley. Thomas’ floor is incredible, but Jones can match him in upside for $1,300 less and fits more into an optimal roster construction.
Tyler Boyd- Boyd draws one of the top matchups on the slate in the slot against Jomal Wiltz and the Dolphins. Boyd has logged target totals of 10, 7 and 6 over the last three games with Dalton back, and has scored in double-digits in three of his last four Dalton-led games. Under $6,000 he may end up one of the highest-owned receivers on DraftKings, but I do think it’s warranted given the matchup/price combo.
Mike Williams-Readers of this article have rode Mike Williams into the sunset this season, and that won’t stop in Week 16 in a matchup with the Oakland Raiders. We have picked on the Raiders with deep threats weekly, while Williams isn’t a burner like Robby Anderson or Chris Conley — he does have the highest aDOT among the Chargers starters at 18 yards and is typically who Rivers looks at deep. We also get the narrative of Rivers potentially playing in his last “home” game with the Chargers. I think Williams is still under-priced relative to his upside.
Steven Sims Jr- Sims Jr is not a high-upside play, but that also explains why he is priced at just $4,000. Sims moved into the starting lineup as the slot receiver in Week 14 with Trey Quinn on IR, and that resulted in target totals of 7 and 11 over the last two weeks. He draws a strong matchup with the New York Giants secondary that’s surrendered the fourth-most DK points per game to opposing wideouts.
UPDATE: I’m also going to add Keenan Allen for DraftKings, who is just $6,300. I prefer him to DeVante Parker, though I like Parker more on FanDuel.
Tight End
Outlook: Tight End is simple to me again this week in cash game builds, with two options in Zach Ertz and Austin Hooper sticking out above the rest. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most DK points per game to opposing Tight Ends which bodes well for Ertz who has eclipsed 10 targets in five of his last six games. He will continue to play an even larger role in the Eagles offense with the Philly receivers banged up. Hopper has seen six targets in each of his last two games, and gets the same strong matchup as Julio Jones despite a very affordable price tag.
DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
