Welcome to the Week 16 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce
Mahomes is in the midst of another MVP-caliber season for the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s thrown for 4,462 yards and 36 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on 544 pass attempts through 14 games. He’s added 287 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Mahomes’ posted 20+ fantasy points in 13 of his 14 games this season. He’s also recorded 40+ fantasy points in a pair of games, flashing elite upside. Mahomes gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. They’re allowing 287.7 passing yards per game and 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also given up 28 passing touchdowns through 14 games. The Chiefs are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 54 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 32.3 points.
Hill’s one of two focal points of the Kansas City passing attack, playing 87% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs this season. He boasts 83 receptions for 1,211 yards and 15 touchdowns on 129 targets. Hill also owns 123 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground this season. He’s posted 15+ fantasy points in 13 of his 14 games, including a 60.9 fantasy point performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hill ranks third in the NFL in red zone targets (17), posting 12 receptions for 58 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s seen 1,703 air yards with an elite 13.2 aDOT this season. Overall, Hill’s seen 37.5% of Kansas City’s air yards in 2020. He’s currently dealing with a hamstring injury, although he’s expected to be healthy for the game this weekend. Hill isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s a consistent option, who boasts as much upside as any player in the NFL.
Kelce is the other focal point of the offense. He’s played 86% of the offensive snaps this season. Through 14 games, Kelce’s posted 98 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns on 132 targets. He’s the most consistent tight end in the NFL, scoring double-digit fantasy points in 13 of his 14 games. He also boasts elite upside, scoring 28+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games. Kelce’s also seen 17 red zone targets, recording 12 receptions for 76 yards and 8 touchdowns. He owns 1,148 air yards with an 8.7 aDOT, accounting for 25.1% of Kansas City’s air yards. Kelce’s another absurdly expensive option in the Chiefs offense, but he’s far and away the best tight end option on this slate. It’ll be difficult, although not impossible to pair this trio in a stack, making it lower owned than most would initially expect.
Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky/David Montgomery/Allen Robinson
Trubisky’s seen mixed results through an odd 2020 season for the Chicago Bears. Through 7 games, he owns 1,538 yards with 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 220 pass attempts. He’s also posted 161 yards on the ground. Trubisky’s averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game in those 7 contests. He boasts 25+ fantasy point upside, as well. Most importantly, Trubisky gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are allowing 271.7 passing yards per game and 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve given up a league-high 31 passing touchdowns, as well. The Bears are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 47 points, and they boast one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 27.3 points.
Montgomery’s been a workhorse back, playing 69% of the offensive snaps for Chicago this season. He boasts 906 yards and 6 touchdowns on 202 carries through 13 games. He also owns 43 receptions for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns on 57 targets. Montgomery’s been playing at an elite level in recent games, as well, averaging 28.8 fantasy points per game over his last 4 contests. He’s recorded 98 yards and 5 touchdowns on 35 red zone carries to go along with 4 receptions for 27 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 red zone targets. Jacksonville’s allowing 146.5 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry in 2020. They’ve given up 18 rushing touchdowns in 14 games, as well. Montgomery’s an elite option once again this week.
Robinson’s played 85% of Chicago’s offensive snaps this season. He’s posted 90 receptions for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns on 133 targets. He also owns double-digit fantasy points in 13 of his 14 games, including 4 games with 25+ fantasy points. Robinson’s turned 15 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 58 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. He’s seen 1,290 air yards with a 9.7 aDOT, as well. Overall, Robinson owns 30.9% of Chicago’s air yards this season. He’s been a great option for the majority of the season, and this week is no different.
Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp
Goff’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He’s posted 3,718 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions on 509 pass attempts through 14 games. He owns 76 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Goff hasn’t been consistent, but he has posted 27+ fantasy points in 4 of his 14 games. He gets a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend. They’re allowing a league-high 293.0 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt while holding opponents to only 22 passing touchdowns. The Los Angeles Rams are +1.5 point underdogs in a game set at 47.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 23 points.
Woods leads the Los Angeles receivers, playing 88% of the offensive snaps this season. He boasts 82 receptions for 852 yards and 6 touchdowns on 114 targets. He also boasts 154 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground through 14 games. Woods has also been heating up in recent games, scoring 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 contests, including a 33.6 fantasy point performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s ultra-efficient in the red zone, posting 10 receptions for 68 yards and 4 touchdowns on 11 targets. Woods only owns a 7 aDOT, recording 791 air yards this season. He’s accounted for 25.2% of Los Angeles’ air yards in 2020. After struggling in the middle of the season, Woods has found his footing, making him an outstanding option in this matchup.
Kupp’s another focal point of the passing offense, playing 80% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps. He owns 84 receptions for 908 yards and 3 touchdowns on 115 targets. Kupp’s been inconsistent throughout the season, although he boasts 25+ fantasy point upside. He’s seen a team-high 12 red zone target, posting 7 receptions for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kupp’s only seen 736 air yards with a 6.4 aDOT this season, accounting for 23.3% of Los Angeles’ air yards. The Rams could rely more heavily on Goff and their passing offense in this game, making Woods and Kupp elite tournament stacking options with him this week.
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