Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He’s thrown for 3,082 yards and 25 touchdowns with 8 interceptions on 406 pass attempts through 14 games. Mayfield’s added 115 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground, as well. He also boasts a career-high 6.2 touchdown rate with a career-low 2.0% interception rate.
Mayfield’s been an extremely inconsistent option, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game. He’s scored single-digit fantasy points in 4 of his 14 games, as well. With that being said, he caught first over his last trio of games. Over that span, Mayfield’s averaging 29.5 fantasy points per game, including a pair of games with 33+ fantasy points. Ultimately, he’s posted 18+ fantasy points in each of his last 4 games. Mayfield’s been better on the road in 2020, where he’s averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game compared to 14.8 in Cleveland. He’s thrown for 17 touchdowns in 7 road games, as well.
Mayfield gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets this season. They’re allowing 279.8 passing yards per game and 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also given up 30 passing touchdowns this season. Surprisingly, New York’s been keeping games close enough for opposing quarterbacks to consistent dominate. Cleveland is a -10 point favorite in a game set at 47.5 points, and they boast one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 28.8 points. Mayfield’s recent successes have been lost in his struggles throughout the season. The Cleveland offense is seen as run heavy, although Mayfield’s averaging 324.7 yards and 2.7 touchdowns on 37.3 pass attempts per game. He’s an elite tournament option this weekend.
Running Back
Ito Smith
Smith was recently named the starting running back over Todd Gurley for the Atlanta Falcons. He’s posted 213 yards and 1 touchdown on only 50 carries through 12 games. He’s also added 15 receptions for 63 yards on 21 targets in 2020. Smith quietly leads the Atlanta running backs in red zone targets (6), posting 5 receptions for only 4 yards. He’s also turned 7 red zone carries into 22 yars and 1 touchdown this season.
Smith’s only played 19% of the offensive snaps this season. With that being said, he played 48% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps last week, taking over mid-game for Gurley and Brian Hill. Smith hasn’t been given the opportunity to produce much in 2020, although he posted 17.5 fantasy points in his only game with 15+ touches. He isn’t a workhorse back, meaning he’ll need to be involved in the passing game or find the end zone to score a touchdown, similar to his success against the Las Vegas Raiders earlier in the year.
Smith gets an intriguing matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They’re allowing 123.5 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Kansas City has held their opponents to only 12 rushing touchdowns this season, though. The Chiefs are allowing 1.66 yards before contact per attempt in 2020, as well, which ranks seventh worst in the NFL. With that being said, Atlanta’s offensive line has been less than impressive this season. The Falcons are +10.5 point underdogs in a game set at 54 points, and they own an implied team total of 21.8 points. Smith’s unknown role is likely to keep his ownership low, although he could find extra passing down snaps. He’s the minimum price this weekend, making him a boom or bust option in tournaments.
Giovani Bernard
Bernard’s been a boom or bust option after the Joe Mixon injury this season. Through 14 games, he owns 344 yards and 3 touchdowns on 105 carries. Bernard’s posted 40 receptions for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns on 50 targets, as well. He’s been the top red zone option, recording 55 yards and 3 touchdowns on a team-high 18 red zone carries. He boasts 6 receptions for 45 yards and 3 touchdowns on 8 red zone targets, as well.
Bernard leads Cincinnati’s running backs, playing 48% of the offensive snaps this season. He posted 20.6 and 22.8 fantasy points in his first two starts after Mixon was injured. He then struggled, posting single-digit fantasy points in five consecutive games. Bernard broke out again last week, though, scoring 22.7 fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He saw 68% of the offensive snaps in that game, playing the role of a workhorse running back.
Bernard gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans this week. They’re giving up 150.5 rushing yards per game and a league-high 5.0 yards per carry this season. Houston’s also allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. The Cincinnati Bengals are +9 point underdogs in a game set at 46 points, giving them an implied team total of 18.5 pointts. Bernard’s consistently played major snaps for Cincinnati, excluding his game against the Dallas Cowboys, where he was initially benched for an early fumble. He’s a cheap option in a big role. He’ll go overlooked because of Cincinnati’s struggling offense, but this is one of the best matchups on the slate.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson
Robinson’s been enjoying an elite season through 14 games. He’s posted 90 receptions for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns on 133 targets. Robinson’s turned 15 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 58 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. He’s seen 1,290 air yards with a 9.7 aDOT, accounting for 30.9% of the Chicago Bears’ air yards.
Robinson leads Chicago’s receivers in snaps, playing 85% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 13 of his 14 games, making the best of inconsistent quarterback play. Robinson’s also recorded two of his best games of the season over the last four weeks. He posted 30.3 and 27.4 fantasy points against the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers. Robinson also posted 30+ fantasy points one other time on the season with both of his 30+ fantasy point games coming with Mitchell Trubisky starting at quarterback, although Nick Foles took over against the Atlanta Falcons.
Robinson gets an ideal matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re allowing 271.7 passing yards per game and 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up 31 passing touchdowns this season. Robinson’s expected to spend the majority of his time against Greg Mabin, who’s played limited snaps this season. He’s been targeted on 15% of his offensive snaps, allowing a 50% catch rate. Mabin’s also giving up 0.33 fantasy points and 1.53 yards per route covered this season. Most importantly, he’s graded out as a below-average cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Bears are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 47 points this weekend. They boast an implied team total of 27.3 points. Robinson is an extremely consistent option, who boasts elite upside in a great matchup. He’s a player I’ll be overweight on in tournaments this weekend.
Mike Williams
Williams has been dealing with injuries throughout the 2020 season. He boasts 38 receptions for 594 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 targets through 12 games. Williams owns 7 red zone targets, posting only 1 reception for 4 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s seen 1,081 air yards with a 15.9 aDOT. Overall, he’s accounted for 25.5% of the Los Angeles Chargers’ air yards this season.
Williams’ only played 68% of the offensive snaps for Los Angeles this season. He’s struggled quite a bit recently, scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games. With that being said, he’s flashed elite upside in 2020, scoring 30.9 fantasy points against the New Orleans Saints. He also owns games with 17.2 and 21 fantasy points.
Williams gets a plus matchup against the Denver Broncos, who are allowing 230.1 passing yards per game and 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve held their opponents to only 18 passing touchdowns this season, though. Williams gets a more specific matchup against Michael Ojemudia. The latter has given up a 66% catch rate while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. Ojemudia’s given up 0.30 fantasy points and 1.46 yards per route covered. He’s graded out as PFF’s fifth worst cornerback in the NFL. The Chargers are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 48.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 26 points. Williams is another boom or bust option, but he’ll be in a matchup he can take advantage of this weekend.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert
Goedert’s found success when on the field this season. He boasts 43 receptions for 486 yards and 3 touchdowns on 62 targets through 10 games. Goedert’s been efficient in the red zone, posting 5 receptions for 32 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 targets. Heowns 552 air yards with an 8.9 aDOT in 2020, accounting for 12.1% of the Philadelphia Eagles’ air yards.
Goedert’s played 53% of the offensive snaps for Philadelphia this season. Excluding a pair of bad games, he’s been a relatively consistent option for his position. He’s recorded 8 receptions for 82 yards on 14 targets in 2 full games with Jalen Hurts. Goedert’s also flashed elite upside this season, though, scoring 27.1, 18.7, and 20.5 fantasy points in the 3 games he’s recorded a touchdown.
Goedert gets a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. They’re allowing 221.8 passing yards and 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up a league-high 31 passing touchdowns in 2020. The Eagles are currently -2 point favorites in a game set at 49.5 points. They boast an implied team total of 25.8 points. Goedert is one of the focal points of the Philadelphia passing offense with hurts, adding to his upside. He’s an outstanding option on this slate.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
