Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 49.5
Outlook: We typically would project a Bucs/Falcons game indoors for a massive shootout, but those chances took a massive hit on Friday when Julio Jones was confirmed out for this game. Matt Ryan and the Flacons offense as a whole have struggled when Jones has been off the field this season. It’s tough to expect them to stay in the game now installed as six point underdogs. Jones absence and the matchup with a tough Bucs defense renders the Atlanta offense as an overall fade for me outside of Calvin Ridley. Ridley has been a target hog sans Jones this season and I would be comfortable with him in all formats.
As for the Bucs, it looks like Ronald Jones will miss this weeks game which will push ownership towards Leonard Fournette. Playing Fournette or not, in cash games, becomes one of the questions of the slate in my opinion. Bruce Arians confirmed to the media he would be the teams main back if Jones were to miss, but let’s not forget this game is coming on the heels of him being a healthy scratch. The Falcons defense has skewed more towards a pass-funnel and I would rather attack them through the air than on the ground. That being said, Fournette will have one of the top touch projections in his pricing tier and he is viable in all formats. Given the pass-funnel nature and a mediocre pass rush, Tom Brady will be in my three max pool again in Week 15. All of Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans can be stacked with Brady, Evans seems to always be the lowest-owned which I am interested in. Rob Gronkowski is GPP-viable at the tight end position, and can be used in a double-stack or as a one-off.
Cash Game Pool: Leonard Fournette, Calvin Ridley
GPP Pool: Tom Brady stack
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: What’s more 2020 than a Week 15 Bears/Vikings game drawing so much DFS attention? I don’t love attacking second divisional contests, but I would be lying if I said some of these plays don’t stick out. The Bears offense has been clicking for the first time all season since Mitch Trubisky took over the offense from Nick Foles. Trubisky has put up DK point totals of 21, 14 and 25 in his last three starts putting him firmly on the tournament radar. Few running backs are as hot as David Montgomery, who has topped 27 PPR points in each of his last three games. The Vikings are a bit easier to attack through the air, but it’s hard to ignore Monty’s recent form and touch projection. His price hike makes him better-suited for GPPs, but he is in my pool nonetheless. As I noted above, the Vikings have now surpassed the Seahawks for the most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This bodes well for Allen Robinson, who is enjoying a late season fantasy renaissance with Trubisky at QB. He is one of my top graded WR plays on the slate and can be used in all formats. We also need to look at Cole Kmet, who has surpassed Jimmy Graham as the teams lead TE in recent weeks. He’s seeing slot time as well, and has fourteen targets in his last two games.
As for the Vikings, Kirk Cousins has a wide range of outcomes in this game. He struggles under pressure, so if the Bears are able to generate a good pass rush it could be a long game for this offense. The Bears have absolutely owned Dalvin Cook over the last few season, while I don’t typically buy into things like that, it’s enough for me to put him behind Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor on my RB board. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are my preferred plays from this offense, with Jefferson sticking out. We can also look at Irv Smith Jr in tournaments with Kyle Rudolph looking questionable at best for Sunday.
NOTE: It looks like the Bears might be without both Johnson and Skrine in the secondary which is a bump to both MIN WRs.
Cash Game Pool: Allen Robinson
GPP Pool: Mitch Trubisky, David Montgomery, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: This is overall a pretty mediocre game on this slate, headlined by two dud DFS quarterbacks in Andy Dalton and Nick Mullens. Despite the negative outlook on the game, one of my favorite plays of the weekend happens to be Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is averaging over 20 DK points in games started by Mullens, and will now benefit even more with Deebo Samuel out. Dallas is coughing up the second-most fantasy points to the position, and I will be overweight on him this week despite high projected ownership. I also have interest in the Dallas pass catchers, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Cooper has been one of the safest options in the NFL with Dalton at the helm, and Gallup quietly has out-targeted him over the last month of play. The 49ers have completely erased slot receivers this season, which makes the matchup much better on the outside for both Cooper and Gallup. I think Gallup will end up in my cash game pool due to his punt price tag.
The backfields in this game are a disaster, and I will likely be avoiding both. Kyle Shanahan has leaned heavily on Raheem Mostert in recent weeks, but he did exit last weeks game and was in need of an MRI. If I was betting on one running back in this game, however, it would be him. Dallas has no reason to push Zeke Elliott seeing as they are one of the worst teams in the league. He out-touched Tony Pollard by just one in Week 14, and I think there are better places to spend salary at the running back position.
Cash Game Pool: Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Gallup
GPP Pool: Amari Cooper
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: With a lowly 44 O/U and a severe mismatch in the trenches, this game is one of the least appealing for DFS. Chase Young singlehandedly wreaked havoc in their Week 14 win, and we should expect more of the same vs this Seahawks offensive line. Chris Carson clearly ran ahead of Carlos Hyde when the game was still a contest last week, but the Football Team are allowing the seventh-least fantasy points to running backs. I don’t have a ton of interest in Russ here, because I just don’t know how we see a ceiling-type game. That being said, DK Metcalf is always in play as a one-off and I don’t think we see his ownership reflect his upside on Sunday.
Dwayne Haskins is back for the Football Team this week, which is great news for Terry McLaurin. F1 was a target hog with Haskins at the helm earlier this season, and he becomes one of the best tournament plays on the slate at his price tag on both sites. We don’t know if Antonio Gibson will play yet, but with Peyton Barber still there to troll JD McKissic and Smith now sidelined, I will avoid this team outside of McLaurin.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Total: 41.5
Outlook: With just a 41.5 O/U, this is the worst game of the slate and has just one real point of interest for me this weekend — the Miami receiving situation. Both Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker are questionable for this game, if one or both miss, we could see another heavy dose of the electric Lynn Bowden Jr who led the team in targets last weekend. He would be a great source of value should we get some targets opening up, but that remains to be seen.
As a whole, this game is bad. The Patriots defense has come on strong to end the season, and Bill has historically owned rookie QBs. The Pats have no passing game whatsoever, and will likely lean on another run-heavy game plan supported by a RBBC with Cam, Damien Harris and James White.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Lynn Bowden Jr (could be bumped up this weekend)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Total: 48
Outlook: This is a smash spot for the Ravens at home even though it’s such a let down spot after that thrilling emotional win over the Browns on Monday night. The fact is, Baltimore is fighting for their playoff lives right now and they can’t afford a slip up against one of the worst teams in the league at home. Lamar Jackson has been much closer to the 2019 version of himself over the last two weeks, and this is a potential ceiling spot with his price tag down compared to what it was a season ago. My absolute favorite play in this game, however, is JK Dobbins who quietly led this team in touches on MNF. Edwards trolled with two touchdowns, but it’s clear Dobbins is the future lead back here and I expect them to continue to unleash him as we close the season, The Jags have given up the fourth-most PPR points to running backs.
One situation to monitor is the Ravens pass catchers — all of Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin and James Proche are on the Covid list, If multiple of them can’t get cleared for Sunday, this would clear the path for a Mark Andrews takeoff and thrust Willie Snead into play as a punt in all formats.
Even with Gardner Minshew back at QB, I simply can’t trust this Jags offense. You can certainly take a flier on James Robinson and his massive touch share, but overall I won’t play enough teams to get any Jags exposure on Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: Lamar Jackson
GPP Pool: JK Dobbins, Mark Andrews (monitor news)
Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Total: 51.5
Outlook: The total on this game keeps going up, and most of that is accounted for by the Titans massive 31 point implied team total. I love rostering their big three of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and AJ Brown has home favorites, and now they get a matchup with one of the most dreadful defenses in the NFL. Henry has a legit chance at a 2,000 yard season, and sets up in another smash spot as the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season. Brown and Corey Davis should feast on this banged up Lions secondary, Davis being an interesting GPP pivot after letting down at ownership last weekend. I will 100% be rostering King Henry in cash games, and I like the Titans onslaught in three max contests.
On the Lions side, they are missing stud center Frank Ragnow and could be down Matthew Stafford as well. Even if Staff plays, I won’t have much interest with Kenny Golladay still out and his injuries piling up late in the season. The one Lions player I do like is D’Andre Swift, who returned last season and still led this team in touches. Tennessee has a horrible defense in their own right, and we should expect the Lions to unleash Swift as the season winds down with them in evaluation mode to close the season. He makes for an interesting pivot off of higher-priced options in his pricing tier.
Cash Game Pool: Derrick Henry
GPP Pool: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Corey Davis, D’Andre Swift
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: This game has a really high total of 51, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it go over. We already know how bad the Texans defense is, and DeForest Buckner is questionable for the Colts. Deshaun Watson continues to carry the Texans offense, and he is GPP playable every week. He’s fallen below $7,000 on DraftKings, and topped 24 fantasy points when these two teams met in Week 13. I will pass on the Houston run-game, but do have interest in both Keke Coutee and Brandin Cooks as one-offs or in stacks with Watson. Coutee sets up to smash in the slot against the Colts zone-heavy defense, and he is in play for all formats while Cooks is a ceiling tournament play.
If the Colts go over their team total, it likely comes from Jonathan Taylor and/or TY Hilton. Taylor finally had the career-game I’ve been waiting for last season, and draws an even better spot this weekend. The Texans have given up the most PPR points to his position in 2020, and are now down their nose tackle as well. Hilton has the best BvP I’ve ever seen vs the Texans, smashing them for the last half decade. They brought his fantasy season back to life a few weeks ago and I simply can’t ignore the monster games he posts vs them time after time. I won’t be playing him in cash games with his price tag up, but completely understand those who want to.
This is a weird game for me to think it goes over the total, and I think the best way to attack it would be to use Watson and Jonathan Taylor on the same team in a three max contest. It’s going to be hard for Taylor to fail in this game, and Watson can will the Texans late to keep it close.
Cash Game Pool: Jonathan Taylor, TY Hilton, Keke Coutee
GPP Pool: Brandin Cooks, Deshaun Watson
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Total: 48.5
Outlook: With a solid 48.5 O/U, this might be my favorite game of the weekend for DFS. Jalen Hurts pulled off an upset victory over the red-hot Saints in his first NFL start, and looks to continue the magic this week against the Cardinals who rank bottom-ten in rushing yards allowed to QB’s. Much like Kyler Murray, Hurts looked raw through the air, but his upside on the ground — 18 rush attempts last week — makes him a great play in all formats at his price tag on both sites. His inefficiency through the air makes him a fine solo play, but if looking to stack Greg Ward led the team in routes run in Hurts first start. Miles Sanders is a great play in his own right coming off a snap rate over 80% for the first time in what feels like his career.
Kyler Murray looked finally healthy in their Week 15 game, and the Cardinals are in must-win mode if they want to make the playoffs. He rushed 14 times, his highest total since Week 7, and that is a great sign seeing as the Eagles have allowed the most yards on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. I love Murray in stacks with DeAndre Hopkins, who should feast on a banged up Eagles secondary down their top two safeties.
Kenyan Drake has been much of what we saw last season since returning from injury, and now it looks like Chase Edmonds could miss this game. The Eagles defense is a clear pass-funnel spot for this offense, but I don’t mind some GPP exposure to Drake. I do prefer someone like JK Dobbins, however, as a one off.
Cash Game Pool: Jalen Hurts, DeAndre Hopkins
GPP Pool: Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Total: 44
Outlook: Analysis will be posted Saturday morning! (Gross game)
Cash Game Pool: Cam Akers
GPP Pool: Rams WRs, Jamison Crowder
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Total: 51.5
Outlook: The “game of the week” should be a good one with the Chiefs taking on the Saints in Drew Brees’ return to the starting lineup. The way to beat the Chiefs has always been getting pressure on Patrick Mahomes, which shouldn’t be an issue for New Orleans. The Saints rank ninth in the NFL with 36 sacks this season, while Mahomes is in danger of being without his top three offensive lineman on Sunday. That being said, I could see this as being a spot where people make a case all week to fade the Chiefs offense due to their price tags, making them an even more enticing tournament stack. We know where the volume is going, and that’s Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Hill is someone I’ve been overweight on each of the last few weeks, and that will hold true again in Week 15. He has a bad matchup on paper with Marshon Lattimore, but the Chiefs move him around enough pre-snap to loosen him up throughout the game. Lattimore has also struggled with deep balls this season, which we know his Hill and Mahomes specialty. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off a career-high 74% snap percentage in Week 14, making him an equally strong play in GPPs. Especially if you don’t have any exposure to the passing game.
As for the Saints, I expect Taysom Hill will still be involved to help limit Brees’ snaps as a whole. It’s a tough situation to gauge, but the clear best play for me is Alvin Kamara. He gets a big bump with Brees back, and I like him as a run-back in my Chiefs stack. Michael Thomas looks truly questionable for this game, if he were to miss we could look at someone like Manny Sanders or Tre’Quan Smith as a flier in large field contests. Jared Cook would jump near the top of the tight end position should MT miss as well.
UPDATE: Thomas has been ruled out, solidifying Kamara as a near must play in all formats.
Cash Game Pool: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara
GPP Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jared Cook
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
